Louisville Football under Scott Satterfield actually slipped on its Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % by nearly 2 percentage points from 2019 to 2020. The movement from 38.15% to 39.86% produced just a slide to 57th from 54th in Opponent 3rd Down Conversions.
This slip in Opponent 3rd Down performance happened despite UofL improving defensively by over 70 yards per game from 2019 to 2020 allowing just 369.1 ypg from where the Cards started with Satt in 2020 at 439.9 ypg. The 70 yard difference moved the Cards from 102nd to 39th in the country defensively. That’s in addition to improving by nearly a touchdown on defense last year going from allowing 33.4 points per game in 2019 to just 26.6 ppg in 2020. The difference in 6.8 ppg was good for the Cards to go from 110th in Scoring Defense to 49th in 2020.
Louisville’s 2013 season is the best recent output in the last 18 seasons with opponents converting just 26.74% of their 3rd downs. Louisville was 1st in the nation in stopping 3rd down in 2013.
If Louisville wants to move into Top 25 territory with its 3rd down conversions it will need to get into the 33%-35% range for a Top 25 Opponent Third Down Conversion team.
- Louisville Scoring Offense Evaluation
- Louisville Total Offense Evaluation
- Louisville Passing Offense Evaluation
- Louisville Rushing Offense Evaluation
- Louisville 3rd Down Conversion Evaluation
- Louisville Scoring Defense Evaluation
- Louisville Total Defense Evaluation
- Louisville Passing Defense Evaluation
- Louisville Rushing Defense Evaluation
|Opp 3rd Down Conv %|
|1||26.74%, 1st (2013 Strong)|
|2||30.56%, 11th (2006 Petrino)|
|3||31.53%, 10th (2016 Petrino)|
|4||31.79%, 10th (2014 Petrino)|
|5||33.68%, 23rd (2004 Petrino)|
|6||34.09%, 13th (2010 Strong)|
|7||35.32% 35th (2015 Petrino)|
|8||36.21%, 38th (2005 Petrino)|
|9||37.27%, 48th (2008 Krag)|
|10||38.14%, 49th (2011 Strong)|
|11||38.15% , 54th (2019 Satterfield)|
|12||38.46%, 54th (2007 Krag)|
|13||39.86%, 57th (2020 Satterfield)|
|14||40.27%, 77th (2009 Krag)|
|15||41.34%, 87th (2017 Petrino)|
|16||41.67%, 76th (2012 Strong)|
|17||43.37%, 94th (2003 Petrino)|
|18||51.85%, 130th (2018 Petrino)|
No stat is universally correlated to wins or winning seasons, but 3rd Down Conversion % offensively and defensively is one of the more traditional indicators of a great season. Louisville’s Top 5 seasons in Opponent Third Down Conversion % over the past 18 years represents a record of 53-11 (82.8%) with two AP Top 6 finishes, an Orange Bowl win and a Heisman Trophy.
- 26.74%, 2013. W-L, 12-1
- 30.56%, 2006. W-L, 12-1
- 31.53%, 2016. W-L, 9-4
- 31.79%, 2014. W-L, 9-4
- 33.68%, 2004. W-L, 11-1
Opponent 3rd Down Defense is a huge area for any defense and if UofL can make some strides here, getting stops when they need them, then perhaps the Cards can notch a few more in the W column.
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