Usually we just put up the stats and let the reader review them on their own without any commentary. For this Pitt game we had to point out a few things. One the similarities between Louisville & Pitt are striking:
Similarities
Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Offense/Total Defense, Punting, Returning, Field Goal %, Opponent 1st Downs, Sacks, Sacks Allowed, Fumbles Forced, Opponent’s Red Zone TD %, and Yards Per Play.
All of those categories Louisville & Pitt are very much in the same ballpark in terms of production. So when looking at Pitt & Louisville and trying to decide how this game is going to go we’re going to have to find out what’s different about the Cards & Panthers statistically and use that as a base line from a bird’s eye view.
Key Differences
Pitt has played a slightly more difficult schedule than UofL, so we have to keep that in mind as we go through this.
-Louisville Passes more effectively than Pitt.
-Pitt can run the football better than the Cards.
-Louisville has a small yet significant advantage in stopping the run.
-Opponents hit field goals at an alarming % vs. Pitt
-Pitt’s +3 Turnover Margin is four better than UofL’s -1
-Pitt’s Time of Possession is nearly 3 minutes longer than Louisville’s
-Pitt averages 1.2 fewer sacks allowed per game than the Cards.
-Louisville gets an additional tackle per loss defensively, but allows 2 more TFLs offensively per game than the Panthers.
-The Cards have earned 6 more INTs than Pitt this season.
-The Panthers have blocked 4 kicks in 2015. UofL has blocked ZERO
-Pitt’s 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 4.5 percentage points better than Louisville’s
-Louisville’s Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 5.5 percentage points better than Pitt’s.
So who’s got the edge? There is a reason why Pitt is a 2 point favorite at home. It’s tough to discern between who the better football team is statistically. To do that we’re going to have to break this down further in a later post because people (not stats) play football. And while these two teams may appear similar on paper individual instances will determine the game. But I think this will be an outstanding and well-matched game.
| Louisville | Pitt | |
| Strength of Schedule | 39th | 24th |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 27.4 (75th) | 27.0 (83rd) |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 403.2 (64th) | 376.5 (84th) |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 242.9 (45th) | 196.7 (99th) |
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 160.3 (82nd) | 179.8 (56th) |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 22.3 (34th) | 23.2 (45th) |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 311.4 (14th) | 340.0 (26th) |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 202.5 (42nd) | 200.2 (39th) |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 108.9 (11th) | 139.8 (38th) |
| Punt Returns (ypr) | 4.14 (114th) | 6.06 (90th) |
| Kickoff Returns (ypr) | 20.58 (78th) | 22.43 (42nd) |
| Opponent Punt Returns (ypr) | 5.91 (41st) | 3.93 (21st) |
| Opponent Kickoff Returns (ypr) | 23.86 (108th) | 18.29 (18th) |
| Punting (ypp) | 40.35 (87th) | 41.54 (57th) |
| Field Goal % | 70.6% (73rd) | 72.2% (70th) |
| Opponent Field Goal % | 73.3 (63rd) | 94.4% (124th) |
| First Downs (per game) | 21.4 (58th) | 19.7 (82nd) |
| Opponent First Downs (per game) | 16.3 (11th) | 16.6 (15th) |
| Penalties (ypg) | 62.8 (96th) | 39.8 (12th) |
| Turnover Margin (season) | -1 (79th) | +3 (44th) |
| Time of Possession | 30:18.90 (57th) | 33:06.9 (14th) |
| Sacks (per game) | 2.8 (19th) | 2.90 (13th) |
| Sacks Allowed (per game) | 3.6 (125th) | 2.4 (83rd) |
| Tackles for Loss (per game) | 7.6 (18th) | 6.7 (47th) |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (per game) | 7.6 (117th) | 5.6 (46th) |
| Interceptions (season) | 15 (7th) | 9 (59th) |
| Passes Defended (per game) | 4.8 (39th) | 3.8 (83rd) |
| Fumbles Recovered (season) | 7 (45th) | 5 (90th) |
| Fumbles Forced (season) | 10 (30th) | 11 (24th) |
| Fumbles Lost (season) | 12 (125th) | 6 (49th) |
| Kicks/Punts Blocked (season) | N/A | 4 (4th) |
| 3rd Down Conversions (%) | 39.01% (74th) | 43.45% (38th) |
| Opponent 3rd Down Conversions (%) | 33.33% (29th) | 38.81% (72nd) |
| 4th Down Conversions (%) | 63.64% (30th) | 83.33% (6th) |
| Opponent 4th Down Conversions (%) | 50.00% (56th) | 33.33% (15th) |
| Red Zone Conversions (%) | 80.00% (90th) | 86.49% (43rd) |
| Opponent Red Zone Conversions (%) | 86.36% (89th) | 95.83% (127th) |
| RedZone TD Conversions (%) | 55.56% (94th) | 64.86% (42nd) |
| Opponent Red Zone TD Conversions (%) | 54.76% (44th) | 54.17% (42nd) |
| Kickoffs (ypk) | 62.66 (44th) | 63.02 (27th) |
| Plays | 700 (74th) | 673 (94th) |
| Yards Per Play | 5.76 (50th) | 5.59 (69th) |
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