Usually we just put up the stats and let the reader review them on their own without any commentary.  For this Pitt game we had to point out a few things. One the similarities between Louisville & Pitt are striking:


Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Offense/Total Defense, Punting, Returning, Field Goal %, Opponent 1st Downs, Sacks, Sacks Allowed, Fumbles Forced, Opponent’s Red Zone TD %, and Yards Per Play.

All of those categories Louisville & Pitt are very much in the same ballpark in terms of production.  So when looking at Pitt & Louisville and trying to decide how this game is going to go we’re going to have to find out what’s different about the Cards & Panthers statistically and use that as a base line from a bird’s eye view.

Key Differences

Pitt has played a slightly more difficult schedule than UofL, so we have to keep that in mind as we go through this.

-Louisville Passes more effectively than Pitt.
-Pitt can run the football better than the Cards.
-Louisville has a small yet significant advantage in stopping the run.
-Opponents hit field goals at an alarming % vs. Pitt
-Pitt’s +3 Turnover Margin is four better than UofL’s -1
-Pitt’s Time of Possession is nearly 3 minutes longer than Louisville’s
-Pitt averages 1.2 fewer sacks allowed per game than the Cards.
-Louisville gets an additional tackle per loss defensively, but allows 2 more TFLs offensively per game than the Panthers.
-The Cards have earned 6 more INTs than Pitt this season.
-The Panthers have blocked 4 kicks in 2015.  UofL has blocked ZERO
-Pitt’s 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 4.5 percentage points better than Louisville’s
-Louisville’s Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 5.5 percentage points better than Pitt’s.

So who’s got the edge?  There is a reason why Pitt is a 2 point favorite at home.  It’s tough to discern between who the better football team is statistically.  To do that we’re going to have to break this down further in a later post because people (not stats) play football.  And while these two teams may appear similar on paper individual instances will determine the game.  But I think this will be an outstanding and well-matched game.

  Louisville Pitt
Strength of Schedule 39th 24th
Scoring Offense (ppg) 27.4 (75th) 27.0 (83rd)
Total Offense (ypg) 403.2 (64th) 376.5 (84th)
Passing Offense (ypg) 242.9 (45th) 196.7 (99th)
Rushing Offense (ypg) 160.3 (82nd) 179.8 (56th)
Scoring Defense (ppg) 22.3 (34th) 23.2 (45th)
Total Defense (ypg) 311.4 (14th) 340.0 (26th)
Passing Defense (ypg) 202.5 (42nd) 200.2 (39th)
Rushing Defense (ypg) 108.9 (11th) 139.8 (38th)
Punt Returns (ypr) 4.14 (114th) 6.06 (90th)
Kickoff Returns (ypr) 20.58 (78th) 22.43 (42nd)
Opponent Punt Returns (ypr) 5.91 (41st) 3.93 (21st)
Opponent Kickoff Returns (ypr) 23.86 (108th) 18.29 (18th)
Punting (ypp) 40.35 (87th) 41.54 (57th)
Field Goal % 70.6% (73rd) 72.2% (70th)
Opponent Field Goal % 73.3 (63rd) 94.4% (124th)
First Downs (per game) 21.4 (58th) 19.7 (82nd)
Opponent First Downs (per game) 16.3 (11th) 16.6 (15th)
Penalties (ypg) 62.8 (96th) 39.8 (12th)
Turnover Margin (season) -1 (79th) +3 (44th)
Time of Possession 30:18.90 (57th) 33:06.9 (14th)
Sacks (per game) 2.8 (19th) 2.90 (13th)
Sacks Allowed (per game) 3.6 (125th) 2.4 (83rd)
Tackles for Loss (per game) 7.6 (18th) 6.7 (47th)
Tackles for Loss Allowed (per game) 7.6 (117th) 5.6 (46th)
Interceptions (season) 15 (7th) 9 (59th)
Passes Defended (per game) 4.8 (39th) 3.8 (83rd)
Fumbles Recovered (season) 7 (45th) 5 (90th)
Fumbles Forced (season) 10 (30th) 11 (24th)
Fumbles Lost (season) 12 (125th) 6 (49th)
Kicks/Punts Blocked (season) N/A 4 (4th)
3rd Down Conversions (%) 39.01% (74th) 43.45% (38th)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions (%) 33.33% (29th) 38.81% (72nd)
4th Down Conversions (%) 63.64% (30th) 83.33% (6th)
Opponent 4th Down Conversions (%) 50.00% (56th) 33.33% (15th)
Red Zone Conversions (%) 80.00% (90th) 86.49% (43rd)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions (%) 86.36% (89th) 95.83% (127th)
RedZone TD Conversions (%) 55.56% (94th) 64.86% (42nd)
Opponent Red Zone TD Conversions (%) 54.76% (44th) 54.17% (42nd)
Kickoffs (ypk) 62.66 (44th) 63.02 (27th)
Plays 700 (74th) 673 (94th)
Yards Per Play 5.76 (50th) 5.59 (69th)
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of

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