Usually we just put up the stats and let the reader review them on their own without any commentary. For this Pitt game we had to point out a few things. One the similarities between Louisville & Pitt are striking:
Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Offense/Total Defense, Punting, Returning, Field Goal %, Opponent 1st Downs, Sacks, Sacks Allowed, Fumbles Forced, Opponent’s Red Zone TD %, and Yards Per Play.
All of those categories Louisville & Pitt are very much in the same ballpark in terms of production. So when looking at Pitt & Louisville and trying to decide how this game is going to go we’re going to have to find out what’s different about the Cards & Panthers statistically and use that as a base line from a bird’s eye view.
Pitt has played a slightly more difficult schedule than UofL, so we have to keep that in mind as we go through this.
-Louisville Passes more effectively than Pitt.
-Pitt can run the football better than the Cards.
-Louisville has a small yet significant advantage in stopping the run.
-Opponents hit field goals at an alarming % vs. Pitt
-Pitt’s +3 Turnover Margin is four better than UofL’s -1
-Pitt’s Time of Possession is nearly 3 minutes longer than Louisville’s
-Pitt averages 1.2 fewer sacks allowed per game than the Cards.
-Louisville gets an additional tackle per loss defensively, but allows 2 more TFLs offensively per game than the Panthers.
-The Cards have earned 6 more INTs than Pitt this season.
-The Panthers have blocked 4 kicks in 2015. UofL has blocked ZERO
-Pitt’s 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 4.5 percentage points better than Louisville’s
-Louisville’s Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % is a full 5.5 percentage points better than Pitt’s.
So who’s got the edge? There is a reason why Pitt is a 2 point favorite at home. It’s tough to discern between who the better football team is statistically. To do that we’re going to have to break this down further in a later post because people (not stats) play football. And while these two teams may appear similar on paper individual instances will determine the game. But I think this will be an outstanding and well-matched game.
|Strength of Schedule||39th||24th|
|Scoring Offense (ppg)||27.4 (75th)||27.0 (83rd)|
|Total Offense (ypg)||403.2 (64th)||376.5 (84th)|
|Passing Offense (ypg)||242.9 (45th)||196.7 (99th)|
|Rushing Offense (ypg)||160.3 (82nd)||179.8 (56th)|
|Scoring Defense (ppg)||22.3 (34th)||23.2 (45th)|
|Total Defense (ypg)||311.4 (14th)||340.0 (26th)|
|Passing Defense (ypg)||202.5 (42nd)||200.2 (39th)|
|Rushing Defense (ypg)||108.9 (11th)||139.8 (38th)|
|Punt Returns (ypr)||4.14 (114th)||6.06 (90th)|
|Kickoff Returns (ypr)||20.58 (78th)||22.43 (42nd)|
|Opponent Punt Returns (ypr)||5.91 (41st)||3.93 (21st)|
|Opponent Kickoff Returns (ypr)||23.86 (108th)||18.29 (18th)|
|Punting (ypp)||40.35 (87th)||41.54 (57th)|
|Field Goal %||70.6% (73rd)||72.2% (70th)|
|Opponent Field Goal %||73.3 (63rd)||94.4% (124th)|
|First Downs (per game)||21.4 (58th)||19.7 (82nd)|
|Opponent First Downs (per game)||16.3 (11th)||16.6 (15th)|
|Penalties (ypg)||62.8 (96th)||39.8 (12th)|
|Turnover Margin (season)||-1 (79th)||+3 (44th)|
|Time of Possession||30:18.90 (57th)||33:06.9 (14th)|
|Sacks (per game)||2.8 (19th)||2.90 (13th)|
|Sacks Allowed (per game)||3.6 (125th)||2.4 (83rd)|
|Tackles for Loss (per game)||7.6 (18th)||6.7 (47th)|
|Tackles for Loss Allowed (per game)||7.6 (117th)||5.6 (46th)|
|Interceptions (season)||15 (7th)||9 (59th)|
|Passes Defended (per game)||4.8 (39th)||3.8 (83rd)|
|Fumbles Recovered (season)||7 (45th)||5 (90th)|
|Fumbles Forced (season)||10 (30th)||11 (24th)|
|Fumbles Lost (season)||12 (125th)||6 (49th)|
|Kicks/Punts Blocked (season)||N/A||4 (4th)|
|3rd Down Conversions (%)||39.01% (74th)||43.45% (38th)|
|Opponent 3rd Down Conversions (%)||33.33% (29th)||38.81% (72nd)|
|4th Down Conversions (%)||63.64% (30th)||83.33% (6th)|
|Opponent 4th Down Conversions (%)||50.00% (56th)||33.33% (15th)|
|Red Zone Conversions (%)||80.00% (90th)||86.49% (43rd)|
|Opponent Red Zone Conversions (%)||86.36% (89th)||95.83% (127th)|
|RedZone TD Conversions (%)||55.56% (94th)||64.86% (42nd)|
|Opponent Red Zone TD Conversions (%)||54.76% (44th)||54.17% (42nd)|
|Kickoffs (ypk)||62.66 (44th)||63.02 (27th)|
|Plays||700 (74th)||673 (94th)|
|Yards Per Play||5.76 (50th)||5.59 (69th)|
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