Anas Mahmoud Louisville vs. Pittsburgh 2-11-2015 Photo by Adam Creech

PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Pitt

Mark BlankenbakerJanuary 14, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000) Louisville, KY
Game Time: 9:00, 1-14-2016
Line: Louisville -7.5
Series History: Louisville leads 10-5 (6-1 in Louisville)
Last Time: Louisville 69, Pitt 56 (at Yum Center 2-11-15)
TV: ESPN – Karl Ravech, Seth Greenberg
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 81, XM 81
Game Officials: Bryan Kersey, Michael Roberts, John Gaffney

Prediction

Rick Pitino said that Pitt was ‘statistically scary’. What probably scares Pitino is that Louisville is extremely similar to the Cards….with some key differences: Pitt is a better 3-Point Shooting team, a better Free Throw Shooting team, scores a few more points and Louisville wins by 4.7 more points per game and is significantly better defensive team than the Panthers.

Louisville’s backcourt (Lee, Lewis, and Mitchell) collectively shot 5-34 Sunday vs. Clemson which is extremely uncharacteristic for the trio. The Cards will be very eager to share the ball and look for quality shots vs. Pitt. The Panthers do that naturally. Pitt is an excellent passing team and lead the country in Free Throw Percentage.

Overall though, Louisville’s defense is the key difference here and the Yum! Center should be well-lubricated for this 9:00 p.m. start. Louisville is favored by 7.5, that’s probably too strong but the Cards should win.

Louisville 81, Pitt 77

Team Stats

	Louisville	Pittsburgh
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	231st	261st
Points Per Game	81.9 (24th)	85.4 (7th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+23.1 (1st)	+18.4 (7th)
Field Goal %	49.7% (11th)	49.9% (9th)
2-point FG%	54.9% (21st)	54.7% (27th)
3-point FG%	36.5% (97th)	39.0% (27th)
Free Throw %	68.0% (221st)	80.1% (1st)
Rebound Rate	59.2% (2nd)	57.2% (10th)
Blocks Per Game	5.4 (27th)	4.6 (59th)
Steals Per Game	7.6 (45th)	4.9 (286th)
Assists Per Game	13.7 (142nd)	19.7 (4th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.6 (61st)	10.6 (19th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.6 (61st)	10.8 (315th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.6 (171st)	17.3 (40th)
Opponent Shooting %	36.1% (3rd)	41.1% (69th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	39.0% (4th)	45.7% (77th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	31.2% (40th)	31.8% (60th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.2 (127th)	2.8 (59th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.4 (65th)	5.1 (35th)

	*351 teams Play Division 1

Projected Starters

	Trey Lewis	James Robinson
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-3, 198, Sr.
Minutes	27.8	28.2
Points	13.4	10.5
Field Goal %	44.20%	42.3%
3-point %	39.20%	35.4%
FT %	84.10%	81.8%
Rebounds	3.8	2.9
Assists	2.4	5.4
Steals	1.0	1.3
Blocks	0.2	0.4
Turnovers	1.9	0.8
Fouls	1.9	1.6

	Donovan Mitchell	Sterling Smith
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-4, 185, Sr.
Minutes	20.3	22.5
Points	7.8	7.2
Field Goal %	45.50%	42.10%
3-point %	24.30%	49.10%
FT %	80.60%	88.90%
Rebounds	4.0	4.2
Assists	2.1	1.6
Steals	1.0	0.5
Blocks	0.1	0.3
Turnovers	0.9	0.8
Fouls	2.9	1.2

	Damion Lee	Jamel Artis
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-7, 220, Jr.
Minutes	31.0	27.3
Points	16.6	16.0
Field Goal %	47.2%	54.1%
3-point %	36.4%	40.4%
FT %	87.7%	79.7%
Rebounds	3.8	4.5
Assists	1.6	3.5
Steals	1.5	0.5
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.3	2.1
Fouls	1.9	1.7

	Jaylen Johnson	Michael Young
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-9, 235, Jr.
Minutes	16.5	26.0
Points	5.8	17.5
Field Goal %	50.6%	59.70%
3-point %	14.3%	0.00%
FT %	47.1%	85.70%
Rebounds	3.9	6.8
Assists	0.5	2.8
Steals	0.3	0.1
Blocks	0.4	0.5
Turnovers	0.6	2.1
Fouls	1.9	1.7

	Chinanu Onuaku	Rafael Maia
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-9, 245, Sr.
Minutes	22.4	15.5
Points	10.1	3.1
Field Goal %	64.9%	50.0%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	48.1%	54.5%
Rebounds	8.7	4.7
Assists	1.0	0.7
Steals	0.8	0.7
Blocks	2.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.8	0.5
Fouls	2.6	1.9

Bench

	Quentin Snider	Damon Wilson
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-5, 200, Fr.
Minutes	28.1	11.0
Points	9.9	4.3
Field Goal %	42.0%	42.90%
3-point %	42.0%	43.80%
FT %	71.0%	75.00%
Rebounds	2.2	1.2
Assists	3.8	1.8
Steals	0.9	0.2
Blocks	0.0	0.1
Turnovers	1.3	0.8
Fouls	1.9	1.1

	David Levitch	Cameron Johnson
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-7, 185, Fr.
Minutes	8.1	9.2
Points	2.6	4.2
Field Goal %	61.50%	38.00%
3-point %	57.10%	40.00%
FT %	66.70%	81.30%
Rebounds	0.8	1.7
Assists	0.5	0.6
Steals	0.4	0.3
Blocks	0.0	0.1
Turnovers	0.3	0.5
Fouls	0.7	1.3

	Deng Adel	Chris Jones
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-6, 213, Soph
Minutes	9.5	18.4
Points	2.9	7.2
Field Goal %	35.00%	46.80%
3-point %	0.00%	32.40%
FT %	75.00%	77.40%
Rebounds	1.8	2.0
Assists	0.6	1.8
Steals	0.0	0.4
Blocks	0.1	0.5
Turnovers	1.3	0.6
Fouls	1.0	1.6

	Ray Spalding	Sheldon Jester
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-8, 225, Jr.
Minutes	16.9	17.9
Points	6.1	8.9
Field Goal %	65.60%	52.50%
3-point %	0.00%	20.00%
FT %	41.90%	93.30%
Rebounds	4.8	5.5
Assists	0.7	0.9
Steals	1.0	0.6
Blocks	0.8	1.0
Turnovers	1.0	0.7
Fouls	1.9	1.7

	Matz Stockman	Alonzo Nelson-Ododa
	7-0, 240, Soph	6-9, 235, Sr.
Minutes	6.5	10.8
Points	3.2	2.2
Field Goal %	60.90%	51.90%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	53.80%	37.50%
Rebounds	2.4	2.3
Assists	0.2	0.2
Steals	0.0	0.0
Blocks	0.2	1.1
Turnovers	0.5	0.6
Fouls	1.1	1.6

	Anas Mahmoud	Ryan Luther
	7-0, 200, Soph	6-9, 215, Soph
Minutes	10.9	10.0
Points	2.5	3.6
Field Goal %	46.20%	59.40%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	40.00%	60.00%
Rebounds	2.9	2.9
Assists	0.4	0.3
Steals	0.5	0.1
Blocks	1.3	0.4
Turnovers	0.9	0.6
Fouls	1.5	1.4