Assumption: Louisville wins all remaining games

  1. Win the ACC (UNLIKELY)
  • This one is fairly self-explanatory. If Wake Forest can somehow find it in them to beat Clemson, Louisville will head to the ACC championship game.  If the Cards can win once there, the committee can’t keep them out.
  1. Michigan beats Ohio St. and wins the B1G & Washington loses
  • In this scenario Ohio St. would end with 2 losses and Michigan would be locked into a playoff spot. The question becomes where would the committee drop Ohio St. to? I honestly think this will depend on how they look in the last 2 games. Struggle against Michigan St. and get crushed by Michigan? They are out. Destroy Michigan St. and take Michigan to the wire? They probably find a way in. Even if Washington wins out I’m not sure they are guaranteed as being included in the CFP, but a loss locks them out definitively.
  1. South Carolina beats Clemson & Washington loses
  • If Clemson somehow finds a way to lose to South Carolina I don’t see how the committee could include them with 2 (not so great) losses in the last 4 games of the season. Like I stated above, a Washington loss locks them out of the playoff.
  1. Clemson loses the ACC championship game & Washington loses
  • If either UNC or VT are able to knock Clemson off in the ACC championship game, I don’t think they will be included in the playoffs. 2 losses and not having a conference championship to show for it would seem to be the nail in the coffin, per se. As said above, a Washington loss locks them out.
  1. Ohio St. beats Michigan and Penn St. beats Wisconsin & Washington loses
  • Michigan has the worst loss (Iowa) so another loss would seemingly put them over the edge. In this situation Penn St. will go to the B1G title game to meet Wisconsin. There is a possibility, although I’m not sure just how much of one, that if Wisconsin wins they can sneak their way in, even with 2 losses. A Penn St. win keeps Wisconsin from sliding in the back door and knocks Michigan out. Washington is still in the same situation they were in the above scenarios.
  1. B1G Chaos: Michigan loses to Indiana, OSU loses to Michigan St.,
  • In this situation it is likely both teams are knocked out and even with the potential that Wisconsin sneaks in, Louisville is in the driver’s seat.
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Chris Person

Father, Husband, Louisville Fan. Follow me on twitter @cpersonTCZ for Louisville recruiting, news, and analysis.

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