Bowl Projections After Week 9

ESPN

Mark Schlabach: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

Brad Edwards: Russell Athletic vs. Virginia Tech

*Both Schlabach and Edwards had the Cards in this bowl against VT last week.

SBNATION: 

Jason Kirk: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

*Same Prediction as last week, but this time Kirk brings up an interesting point about Louisville as an at-large bid:

“Also, as crazy as this might sound, I don’t think we should completely rule out Louisville for the Orange yet. Teddy Bridgewater is still a star, the Cardinals could be 11-1 and back in the top 10, and the bowl is soon to essentially be owned by the ACC. Louisville joins the ACC next year, meaning the ACC’s bowl could pair two 2014 ACC teams. Just saying, keep your eyes peeled.”

College Football News  –not yet updated

CFN: Russell Athletic vs. Virginia Tech

CBS:

Jerry Palm: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

*Same Projection as last week

Orlando Sentinel

Brant Parsons & Matt Murschel:  Russell Athletic vs. Clemson

*Same Projection as last week from these two.

USAToday

Erick Smith:  Russell Athletic vs. Clemson

SportingNews.com

Bill Bender: Russell Athletic vs. Virginia Tech

Phil Steele

Phil Steele:  Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

NFL.com

Mike Huguenin: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

REACTION

Once again the general consensus is that the Cards will play in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  It’s hard to argue at this point.  UCF looks great and the Cards did not move up in the Coaches or Harris Polls (though they did gain ground in some computers).  But there is still a LOT of time left to play with 6 weeks left in the season and conference championships to be decided.

I really do think that Houston provides Louisville’s best shot at gaining a BCS berth. The Cougars really do look like a legitimate football team and can give the UCF Knights a run for their money.  Houston gets a Thursday night (Halloween) match-up at home against USF (who has no chance) and they could be ranked going into their game against UCF with a few extra days to recuperate and prepare.  Houston will need to travel to Orlando to play the Knights, but UCF has this week OFF and should be able to really dig into what UH does with that extra week.

If Houston can beat Central Florida (and USF) they will be RANKED coming into PJCS and the good news is that the Cougars had to play UCF first and then have to travel back to Houston from Orlando, and then BACK to Louisville to play the Cards.  This is a good scenario for Louisville.  Houston just needs to take care of business in Orlando (they also play Cincinnati & SMU after the UofL game).

IF HOUSTON CAN NOT BEAT CENTRAL FLORIDA the odds of Louisville gaining a BCS bid become very slim.  But there still will be a possibility of an at-large bid.  I think Teddy Bridgewater in the Orange Bowl is EXTREMELY attractive with or without Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles.  But if Florida State gets a BCS National Championship bid and Clemson isn’t BCS eligible then I think the Cards could slide into the Orange Bowl.

Louisville really needs to hope for losses to Clemson, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M.

Losses from the above group greatly increase the probability of an at-large bid.  But there are other teams that also help the Cards out in the poll climb and in the computer rankings. I will detail those later in the week.

BCS Selection Process

The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, or the Sun Belt Conference (hereinafter “non-AQ group”) will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or

B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year, unless non-AQ teams finish both No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings. (Note: A second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

BCS Selection Order for 2013-14

1) Orange

2) Sugar

3) Fiesta

My Predictions

American Athletic Conference (AAC)

The AAC is still up for grabs, but Central Florida is in the driver’s seat for the conference title.  There is still a great deal to be decided, as Houston is still unbeaten in conference play and has Louisville, Cincinnati, and UCF remaining on the schedule.  I personally LOVE the Cougars and the type of football they play.  I do think they will beat UCF and a week later travel to PJCS and get handed their only loss of the season.  Such a scenario would put the Cards into the BCS.  But if that DOES NOT happen the Cards have a very slim outside chance of an at-large bid so paying attention to the remaining slate in other conferences becomes very important.

The worst thing working against Louisville right now is the computer rankings.  Having CPU rankings greater than 25 count for nothing.  The difference between 25th & 26th is astronomical, so small climbs to get to that point will have a major impact in bringing the Cards closer to the human ratings in the BCS Final poll.  Still human polls account for 2/3.

ACC

The ACC is mostly decided in the Atlantic Division as Florida State is surely a lock to win the division and the rest of their games remaining on their schedule.  I also expect the Seminoles to win the ACC and remain positioned for a national championship berth should Alabama or Oregon slip up in the final stretch of the season.   Louisville fans WANT FSU to go undefeated.  It helps by eliminating the clutter of the rest of the league and will allow the Cards to rise in the polls.

Clemson should win out and would remain eligible for an at-large bid (and probably get one) either to the Sugar if FSU is in Orange, or Clemson goes to Orange if FSU heads to Pasadena.  If South Carolina beats Clemson (the only real chance of loss I see) then the Tigers head back to Atlanta.

Virginia Tech is my pick to represent the Coastal.  Right now Miami leads the division, but I think a big time collapse is coming and VT will own the tie-breaker over the “U”.  But VT gets destroyed in the ACC Title game.

The other teams listed here have at least one ranking about Louisville, losses by them would help the Cards climb in the BCS.

Big XII

The Big 12 is about to get wild.  The Louisville interest will be Baylor and that bodes well (in my opinion) for making sure the Big 12 is a one bid league.  But the Bears have a TOUGH path to undefeated with almost all of the good games in the Big 12 held until November this league is MADE FOR TV!  It’s going to be exciting, and I am picking Baylor to win out, but the probability of that happening is very low considering what they will go through.

Right now I’m picking Baylor, but with a confidence level of about 15%, my next selection would actually be Texas who improves each week and plays the 3 toughest games at the end of their schedule.  I do not believe in Oklahoma and I do think Texas Tech has at least two more losses coming.  Lastly, I really do not like Oklahoma State at all this season.  I think the Cowboys House of Cards takes a tumble starting this week.

Big Ten

It is in Louisville’s best interest to keep the Big 10 a one bid conference.  Currently most projections have Wisconsin gaining a Rose Bowl Bid, setting the Badgers up to go to their 4th consecutive Rose Bowl…….and setting Wisconsin up to LOSE their 4th straight bowl game.  Rather than renaming ‘The Grand-Daddy of them ALL” to “That Game in January Wisconsin Loses Annually”.

This is a league that Ohio St should have no trouble with.  But the Buckeyes are a flawed team and this league isn’t scaring anyone nationally.  Northwestern is 0-4 in league play and had Ohio St against the ropes, so anything can happen at this point.  I have Michigan State, with their outstanding defense, matching up against Ohio St in the BIG Championship game and losing.  If Wisconsin & Michigan do what I think they are going to do the Big 10 is a one-bid league.  We’ll know more after this week.

If the teams listed below do not factor into the conference race it is because they currently own some type of ranking ahead of Louisville. Nebraska does have a chance in the Legends division but I don’t think they will survive the gauntlet they are about to face so I did not list them as they do not have a ranking ahead of UofL.

Independents

BYU & Notre Dame both are in play in the mid-to bottom half of a lot of rankings.  The Cougars have already accepted a big to the Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco to play a PAC-12 opponent.  Notre Dame is most likely headed to the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.  Both of these teams own a handful of rankings ahead of Louisville and will face each other in the coming weeks.

MAC

The MAC Conference is listed here because Northern Illinois presents a huge problem for an at-large bid for the Cards. The Huskies do have two very good games remaining including the MAC Championship and I do think they will drop at least one game.  Ball St & Toledo each have a few rankings each higher than the Cards but their impact is minimal. The main thing here is a Northern Illinois loss.

MWC

Fresno State is another non-AQ that could potentially spoil a remote chance of an at-large bid for UofL.  Personally  I think the Mountain Division champ whether that is Boise, Utah St., or Colorado St will knock off Fresno in the Championship game, but I seriously question the Bulldogs against Wyoming & San Jose St. before that game even happens.

PAC

Right now it looks like getting the PAC-12 to be a single big league is a long-shot.  Stanford will lose just one more game & is very strong in the computer polls and will not play in the PAC Championship setting up another potential loss.  Everyone will be shocked if Oregon does not win this league, but there are a lot of stern tests upcoming for the Ducks. I do think they will win out and play for the National Championship, but stranger things have (and will continue to) happen in College Football.

In the South Division it is up for grabs.  Arizona State is in the driver’s seat but they are looking down the barrel of some seriously tough games.  In the end I think UCLA grabs the South and Oregon rolls over them on their way to the BCS National Championship, where I expect Oregon to be the 2013-14 National Champions.

 SEC

Do you remember when Missouri & Texas A&M joined the league in 2012 and at SEC Media Day all of the press asking the Tigers & Aggies players & Coaches whether or not they thought their programs could COMPETE in the SEC?  The SEC has a right to be pretentious having claimed the last 7 BCS National Champions, but this year the league is wide open.

I think Alabama will win the league and go into the BCS National Championship undefeated and will face South Carolina by virtue of tie-breaker in the title game.  Georgia’s stumbles will prohibit their consideration for an at-large bid and I would be surprised if a 3-loss LSU was considered for the Sugar Bowl. It is quite possible the SEC only gets one bid….but if Bama loses, WATCH OUT.  This will become more clear after 11/9.