Bowl Projections After Week 10

ESPN

Mark Schlabach: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

Brad Edwards: Russell Athletic vs. Georgia Tech

SBNATION: 

Jason Kirk: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

*Same Prediction as last week, but this time Kirk maintains that the Cards could be a potential at-large bid to the Orange Bowl.

College Football News

CFN: Russell Athletic vs. Georgia Tech

CBS:

Jerry Palm: Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

*Same Projection as last week

Orlando Sentinel

Brant Parsons & Matt Murschel:  Russell Athletic vs. Virginia Tech

Phil Steele

Phil Steele:  Russell Athletic vs. Miami (FL)

BCS Selection Process

Automatic Qualification

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings (see below) shall play in the National Championship Game. 

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, American Athletic, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Southeastern Conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls.

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, or the Sun Belt Conference (hereinafter “non-AQ group”) will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or

B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year, unless non-AQ teams finish both No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings. (Note: A second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

4. Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

 At-Large Eligibility

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and

B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

If expansion of the pool to 18 teams does not result in 10 teams eligible for selection, then the pool shall be expanded by blocks of 4 teams until 10 eligible teams are available, subject to the two-teams-per-conference limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15 or lower, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

Relative to the two preceding paragraphs, all teams ranked in the top 14, other than those from conferences that already have had two teams selected, must be included in the bowl selections.

Note: In order to participate in a BCS Bowl game, a team (1) must be eligible for post-season play under the rules of the NCAA and, if it not an independent, under the rules of its conference, and (2) must not have imposed sanctions upon itself prohibiting participation in a post-season game for infractions of the rules of the NCAA or the rules of its conference.

BCS Selection Order for 2013-14

1) Orange

2) Sugar

3) Fiesta

My Predictions

AAC

We all know what needs to happen. Louisville needs to take care of business and Houston needs to erase Louisville’s mistake from a few weeks ago and beat UCF.  But Houston also must lose to Louisville and then not drop another game.  There is a lot in play and if the Cards keep winning there is a potential for an at-large bid.  But the more weeks that go by without the Cards making significant progress up the poll, the less likely the at-large bid becomes.

ACC

To me this league is wrapped up.  The only question is whether or not the ACC gets two bids or not.  The only ‘losable’ game left for Clemson is South Carolina, but I think the Tigers are a really bad match-up for the Gamecocks.  Clemson is in play for an at-large bid for sure.  Currently they are #7 in the BCS and I think there is some movement coming ahead of them.  They won’t play their way into title contender, but I would be shocked if they win out and are not a BCS at-large.

Florida State for me should be in the title game.  I really can’t see a scenario where they would not deserve a shot at either Bama or Oregon if they win out.  But there is a lot of football left, 5 games for the Noles and anything can happen.

I really do think Miami is staged for at least one more loss and if things go how I predict they will get another shot at FSU, who will use the “U” as a tune-up for the title game.

Big 12

The Big 12 really is the Wild Wild West in 2013.  This league has the potential to really get crazy with a lot of attrition.  Texas is playing very good football right now after a lot of people wrote them off after a tough start.  Oklahoma & Oklahoma St each have just one loss between them, but nationally this league is all about Baylor.  Can the Bears run the table?

I think Baylor does go undefeated, but Texas Tech (despite two recent losses) can beat anyone in this league.  To me, both OSU and OU are WAAAAYYYYY too high for the type of football teams that they are.  The good news is that there are a lot of quality games remaining on both of those schedules.  I don’t think Texas can play their way into an at-large, but they will get close (and watch out next season).  Baylor wins this league (one bid league) and goes to the Fiesta Bowl.

Things get real Thursday night in Baylor vs. Oklahoma.

Big Ten

It’s hard to see Ohio State losing the rest of the way, but Michigan State has arguably the best defense in the country and will be problematic for the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship game.  I do think Ohio State wins that one, and Nebraska could very well play their way into that game.  I think the Cornhuskers will upset the Spartans actually and stumble home and miss out on the title game.  Buckeye fans are hoping for a shot at Michigan State to boost the SOS but right now the BCS National Championship bid dream is buried under the Big Ten’s failures in BCS games and in the out-of -conference results.

I think Ohio State wins this league, I think Wisconsin plays their way out of consideration for an at-large and Michigan State will too. The Big Ten is a one bid league come December in my opinion.

Independents

Neither one of these teams is a real threat for a BCS bid, but they do own rankings ahead of the Cards which could leave UofL a few spots away from an at-large.  So BYU & Notre Dame need to lose. BYU has already accepted a bowl bid, but could get out if the BCS comes calling…..they won’t, and ND has at least two losses left.  But losses to both of these teams would be fine by Louisville fans.

MAC

Ball State is a pretty good football team.  But they are a decided underdog to Northern Illinois on the road next week.  Still, I’ve got to pick the Cardinals if for no other reason than Louisville needs a Northern Illinois loss. Toledo could do the job, but if the Huskies get past Ball State & the Rockets the last chance will be in the MAC Championship against either Buffalo, Bowling Green, or Ohio.  NIU is due for a loss, so I’ll call for the Ball State game.

Mountain West

There aren’t enough words for me to describe how far over their head Fresno State is.  I REALLY do not believe in this football team, BUT, am I going to argue with winning?  I see at least two more losses and a 3rd if they get into the MWC Championship.  Can the Bulldogs run the table?  Anything can happen, but I think the bottom falls out starting this weekend.

PAC

Showdown game Thursday night.  Stanford vs. Oregon!  It really is a blockbuster game.  Stanford stumbled at Utah which has been an impossible place for road opponents this year.  Stanford is strong, but not strong enough.  I think Oregon wins this one by two scores, but a Duck loss would solidly position Florida State & Alabama for a national title game (if Bama can take care of business).

The Arizona schools I think are about to have a bad November and I do think we will see Washington & UCLA with a bit of a resurgence.  Stanford could stick around for an at-large bid in the Rose Bowl if Oregon is in the title game but this league is a long way from being over.  The Ducks probably win the league…are they in the title game? Can the PAC produce a 2nd bid?  It’s too close to call at this point.

SEC

Missouri is in a bad position.  They are #1 in the SEC East but they do not own a tie-breaker over South Carolina who has just one more SEC game over a beleaguered Florida team.  Missouri still has Ole Miss & Texas A&M remaining on the schedule, so I have to play the odds and put South Carolina in the SEC Title game from the East Division. South Carolina representing the East could mean that the SEC is a one bid league, which would be strange.

The West is pretty clear cut if Bama beats LSU this weekend.   LSU has Bama & Texas A&M left, so they do not likely factor and Auburn is a house of cards at this point.  In my opinion it is Bama, who isn’t as good as last season who will win this league and go to the BCS National Championship where I think they lose to either Oregon or Florida State in the Rose Bowl.

This coming weekend will help clear up the murky waters in the SEC.

In Closing: 

There is still A LOT of football to be played.  Charlie Strong said on Monday, “Everyone remembers the games in November.”  That’s true.  Titles are on the line, teams get thin, upsets happen.  Louisville needs a lot of help, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that they will get that help at this point.  If the Cards do not get the help they need from Houston, they will need Northern Illinois and Fresno to lose to create the necessary spot…..and they need help in the polls that they may not receive. The biggest help Louisville can get is by entering the Top 25 on all of the Computer Polls, 26 might as well be 125th but points start registering once inside the Top 25.  Currently five of the 6 polls are 36, 26, 30, 31, 34.  They aren’t far away and minor gains can result in big impacts in the polls.  Plus, if the Cards keep winning they should make advances in the human polls as well.  There are 10 spots to fill in the BCS.  There will be 10 teams.  Louisville must get in the Top 14 and hope that at least 4 teams don’t meet the qualifications (either too many from same conference) or non-AQ schools qualify.  It would help the BCS out a great deal if the AAC Champion was in the Top 12 of the Final BCS Poll.  Alas, I will end with how I bega:  There is still A LOT of football to be played.

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Mark Blankenbaker

@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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