Ryan Hubbell Louisville vs. Rutgers 2012 Photo by Mark Blankenbaker

Who You Are Rooting For in Week 9

Mark BlankenbakerOctober 24, 2013

The most immediate chance for a BCS Bowl comes with 2-losses to Central Florida or in a 3-way tie where there are no natural tie-breakers and Louisville gets the American Athletic Conference Automatic Bid into the BCS by virtue of the highest BCS ranking (which they currently own at #20.

There is a possibility of an at-large bid. BCS rules dictate that there may only be 2-teams granted bids from a given conference & those teams must be at least a 9-game winner and in the Top 14. In extreme circumstances the process may go to the Top 18.

Right now, Louisville is severely damaged in the Computer Polls where only the Billingsley Poll ranks the Cards in the Top 25. The way the BCS works is they count the number of points in the human polls (Coaches & Harris), and gives the computer rankings of the teams 1-25 a numerical value. Louisville being outside of the A&H, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe computer rankings greatly reduces their BCS Value. Getting just to #25 in all of these computer rankings would help immensely.

Now instead of cheering for CHAOS From 1-25….now Louisville fans are cheering for Chaos from 5-25. The top part of the polls really do need to remain intact for the Cards to have a chance at an at-large spot in the BCS. Having the Top 4 teams in the nation lose only provides upward trajectory and increases the possibility of conferences getting multiple BCS bids per league.

The non-AQ schools, right now Fresno St & Northern Illinois can also throw a wrench into Louisville’s chances and those teams losing do serve a particular importance to the Cardinals getting a BCS bid.

	BCS	Coaches	Harris	A&H	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin Pure_ELO	Wolfe
1	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Florida State	Alabama	Missouri	Alabama	Florida State	Alabama
2	Florida State	Oregon	Oregon	Alabama	Oregon	Florida State	Oregon	Alabama	Florida State
3	Oregon	Florida State	Florida State	Missouri	Ohio State	Alabama	Florida St	Missouri	Missouri
4	Ohio State	Oregon	Ohio State	Oregon	Stanford	Oregon	Missouri	Bethune-Cookman	Oregon
5	Missouri	Baylor	Baylor	Ohio State	Florida State	Ohio St	Baylor	Oregon	Virginia Tech
6	Stanford	Miami (FL)	Missouri	Stanford	Missouri	Stanford	Stanford	Northern Illinois	Auburn
7	Miami	Missouri	Miami (FL)	Auburn	Clemson	Auburn	LSU	Fordham	Ohio State
8	Baylor	Stanford	Stanford	Miami (FL)	Oklahoma	Clemson	Ohio St	Oregon St	Miami (FL)
9	Clemson	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Baylor	LSU	Virginia Tech	UCLA	Virginia Tech	Clemson
10	Texas Tech	Clemson	Clemson	Clemson	Northern Illinois	Texas Tech	Clemson	Coastal Carolina	Stanford
11	Auburn	UCLA	UCLA	Texas Tech	Baylor	Baylor	Miami (FL)	Ohio St	Texas Tech
12	UCLA	Oklahoma	LSU	Oklahoma	Notre Dame	Miami (FL)	Auburn	North Dakota State	UCLA
13	LSU	Oklahoma St	Texas A&M	Virginia Tech	UCF	Northern Illinois	Texas A&M	Auburn	Baylor
14	Virginia Tech	LSU	Oklahoma	LSU	Texas Tech	Fresno St	Arizona State	Texas Tech	Fresno State
15	Oklahoma	Texas A&M	Auburn	UCLA	Louisville	Oklahoma	Wisconsin	UCLA	Northern Illinois
16	Texas A&M	Louisville	Louisville	Fresno State	UCLA	Michigan	Georgia	Miami (FL)	LSU
17	Fresno State	Auburn	Oklahoma St	Michigan	Auburn	LSU	Virginia Tech	Clemson	Texas A&M
18	Northern Illinois	Fresno State	Fresno State	Arizona State	Texas A&M	Arizona State	Ole Miss	Baylor	UCF
19	Oklahoma St	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	Northern Illinois	South Carolina	UCLA	Florida	Stanford	Oklahoma
20	Louisville	South Carolina	South Carolina	Georgia	Michigan	Notre Dame	Texas Tech	Fresno State	Ole Miss
21	South Carolina	Nebraska	Northern Illinois	Notre Dame	Miami (FL)	Michigan St	South Carolina	Lehigh	Oregon St
22	Michigan	Northern Illinois	Michigan	Texas A&M	Oregon State	Texas A&M	Washington	Tennessee State	Georgia
23	UCF	Michigan	Nebraska	UCF	BYU	UCF	Oregon State	UCF	South Carolina
24	Nebraska	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	South Carolina	Texas	Oregon St	Utah	Eastern Illinois	Michigan St
25	Oregon St	UCF	UCF	Oklahoma State	Georgia	Georgia	BYU	Ole Miss	Michigan
26				Oregon State		Louisville	UCF	LSU	Notre Dame
27				Ole Miss			Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Pitt
28				BYU			Oklahoma St	Michigan State	Arizona State
29				Michigan State			Arizona	Texas A&M	Florida
30				Florida			Texas	Youngstown State	Louisville
31				Louisville			Michigan St	Georgia
32							Louisville	Harvard
33								Pitt
34								Notre Dame
35								BYU
36								South Carolina
37								Utah
38								Arizona St
39								Florida
40								Michigan
41								Washington
42								Towson
43								Louisville

Thursday

Kentucky @ Mississippi State: Kentucky is finally out of the gauntlet and while the UK vs. MSU game is really a pillow fight between basement dwellers in opposite divisions of the SEC the Cards need UK to start winning games to help their computer rankings.

Friday

Boise State @ BYU: The Broncos will visit the BYU Cougars and the Cards will be hoping Boise State can help out the Cards in 3 of the 6 computer polls by beating BYU.

Saturday

UConn @ #23 Central Florida: The 0-6 Huskies are perhaps the most improbable team to take down the UCF Knights, but they had Michigan on the ropes. UCF is probably poised for a ‘bounce’ but a better opponent would make Card fans feel better.

Eastern Michigan @ #18 Northern Illinois: Louisville’s biggest obstacle to an at-large berth are the non-AQ schools. NIU isn’t losing to Eastern Michigan, but I’m putting it here anyway.

San Diego State vs. #17 Fresno State: The Bulldogs are knocking on the door of qualification for a bid into the BCS as a non-AQ. That makes it hard for Louisville to move their way into qualification. You want the Aztecs to win.

#25 Oregon State vs. #6 Stanford: If we are choosing Oregon, we have to hope that Stanford tanks. Oregon State winning would hurt the Cards initially, but there is plenty of time & the ultimate goal is getting Stanford far enough away for BCS qualification.

#21 South Carolina vs. #5 Missouri: Missouri is a SURPRISING 7-0 and at the beginning of the season Card fans probably thought that they would need the Tigers. Instead, UofL is ahead of the Gamecocks in most polls. Missouri’s winning streak continuing would be a boost to the SEC getting two teams in the BCS. So hope for a lot of attrition in the SEC and get started with Mizzou going down.

#3 Oregon vs. #12 UCLA: It is in Louisville’s best interest for the Top Tier to clean-up the rest of the way. UCLA is a very good team and suffered loss #1 last week. Getting loss #2 here and then a likely loss again in the PAC-12 championship would help.

#4 Ohio State vs. Penn St: Penn State beating Ohio State would be bad for the Cards. The Nittany Lions would jump in all polls and would own a tie-breaker with Ohio State in Leaders Division, which would more than likely result in Ohio State receiving an at-large BCS bid. I can’t believe I am saying this, but, Go Buckeyes. (Seriously how funny would it be for Ohio State to 25-0 and not sniff the title?)

Wake Forest @ #7 Miami (FL): The Demon Deacons have solid wins over NC State & Maryland and the Hurricanes are fresh off a scare against a pretty subpar North Carolina Team. Miami will start losing, might as well be now.

Maryland vs. #9 Clemson: Clemson suffered a BAD loss to Florida State last weekend and traveling to College Park may catch the Tigers down. I don’t expect the Terrapins to take down Clemson, but it would go a long way towards stopping the ACC from getting two BCS bids.

Duke @ #14 Virginia Tech: The Blue Devils are on a 3-game winning streak and have been solid all season. I wouldn’t expect VT to go down in Blacksburg, but the Hokies have been very good this season as well. I expect this to be a good football game and it shouldn’t hurt any Cards’ fans feelings if Duke wins this one.

Vanderbilt @ #16 Texas A&M: A&M suffered their 2nd loss of the season to Auburn last week and now get a tough Vanderbilt team riding high off a win over Georgia. The Aggies give up points, and lots of them. James Franklin coaches a tough brand of football, and I think A&M has a real shot at losing two in a row this week.

Iowa State vs. #19 Oklahoma State: The Cyclones are 1-5, and normally I wouldn’t even list this game. But Iowa State has had an extremely difficult schedule and has played several good football teams close (not Baylor). Ames is no picnic, and is vulnerable. Getting the Pokes behind the Cards in the Human & Computers would be huge.

#15 Oklahoma vs. #10 Texas Tech: It doesn’t matter who wins or loses as both schools frequently are ranked in front of Louisville. But given that Oklahoma has a loss and Texas Tech is currently unbeaten, maybe it is time to get the Red Raiders in the loss column.

Florida Atlantic @ #11 Auburn: Isn’t going to happen.

Illinois vs. Michigan State: The Spartans have ridden a top-flight defense to a 6-1 record & are now entering the tougher part of their schedule. It would be great if the Illini could get things going early, but MSU will be lucky to finish the season with less than 3 losses. Right now the Spartans are ahead of the Cards in four of six computer polls.

Air Force vs. Notre Dame: The Irish lead the Cards in 5 of 6 computer polls and now must travel to Colorado Springs to face an unlikely winner in the Air Force Falcons.

USC vs. Utah: The Utes lead the Cards in two computer polls, go USC.

Navy vs. Pitt: I can’t believe Louisville needs Navy to win in Annapolis over Pitt to help the Cards cause. But they do thanks to the Wolfe Computer Rankings. Go Midshipmen.

Idaho @ Ole Miss: Another insulting game to track, but maybe Paul Petrino can correct some of the computer rankings that have the Cards behind the Rebels.

TCU vs. Texas: Two teams fighting for .500 will affect the CPU rankings. Go Horned Frogs.

Colorado vs. Arizona: Yep, getting ridiculous that these games matter to Louisville……but go Buffaloes.

Cal @ Washington: The Bears have little chance in Seattle, but the Huskies still have a few CPU ratings better than the Cards even despite being blown out last week.

#1 Alabama vs. Tennessee: The Vols have been exciting this season, but Card fans really don’t need any earth-shattering wins at the top that bring new unranked teams in the equation. Roll Tide.

#2 Florida State vs. NC State: Louisville doesn’t need any program behind them getting a quality win. It is now in the Cards’ best interest for the teams 1-4 to remain unbeaten.

#8 Baylor vs. Kansas: I could go either way on this one, but I think I am going to side with Baylor winning the Big XII as an undefeated and securing the Big XII’s only BCS berth. We’ll see how it plays out, but the Big 12 is going to be nuts.