It’s a Big Monday showdown between Louisville (23-5, 14-3) & Florida State (23-4, 13-3) tomorrow in Tallahassee. If the Cards can win then UofL will take control of the driver’s seat for the ACC Regular Season Championship and the #1 overall seed in next month’s ACC Tournament in Greensboro, NC.

The Noles haven’t lost at home since January 12, 2019 when Duke beat FSU at the buzzer. Leonard Hamilton’s squad came into the KFC Yum! Center earlier this season and dominated the Cards 78-65 from start to finish.

Louisville however, looks a lot different now than they did on January 4th with Malik Williams and David Johnson playing much more prominent roles. Still the Cards lost despite Jordan Nwora scoring 32 points….. Nwora got almost no help from the long and athletic Florida State Seminoles.

FSU shot 55.2% from the field including 47.8% from 3-point range while limiting UofL to just 38.7% shooting.

Florida State is always a good defensive team, Ken Pom rates the Noles as the #15 AdjD team in the nation, but this FSU team is the best offensive team in recent memory with a Ken Pom AdjO rank at #38.

In the previous match-up with UofL, FSU’s MJ Walker was a surprise to everyone, including Leonard Hamilton as Walker didn’t practice leading up to the game. MJ finished with 23 points on 9 of 13 shooting, 1 reb, 3 ast, 1 block and just 1 TO.

Since the early January meeting Florida State has just two losses: at Virginia and at Duke for a total of 10 points. This Florida State team is tough to beat and it’s going to take a great effort offensively & defensively in order to take down FSU. This is a Regional Final-type game.

Florida State is solid all the way through. They score, shoot a high percentage both inside & outside. FSU hits their FTs and they are one of the best defensive teams in the country and the Noles create a TON of turnovers. Their length allows them to rebound at a high level, but it’s rebounding where UofL can make up the difference if FSU is getting their usual Turnovers.

  • The Cards can not turn over the ball
  • Must get balanced scoring
  • Must hit their FTs
  • Can NOT allow another 55.2%+ shooting performance from Florida State
  • Must win rebounding war
LouisvilleFlorida State
Strength of Schedule (Ken Pom)59th43rd
PPG75.2 (47th)75.3 (45th)
Avg Scoring Margin11.6 (9th)9.8 (17th)
Field Goal %45.7% (55th)45.6% (56th)
Effective FG%52.9% (43rd)52.0% (70th)
2-pt FG %50.1% (140th)50.9% (106th)
3-pt FG %38.3% (6th)36.1% (47th)
FT %72.9% (101st)75.9% (35th)
Team Fouls Per Game17.0 (125th)17.4 (160th)
Opp Team Fouls Per Game17.5 (192nd)17.1 (225th)
FT Attempted Per Game19.2 (154th)17.5 (240th)
Opp FT Attempted Per Game16.5 (77th)19.3 (217th)
Opp Shooting %38.5% (10th)40.4% (42nd)
Opp Effective FG%44.7% (18th)46.7% (61st)
Opp 2-pt FG %44.4% (31st)45.7% (47th)
Opp 3-Pt FG %30.0% (35th)32.2% (125th)
Rebound Rate54.7% (14th)51.7% (93rd)
Assists Per Game14.2 (69th)13.5 (115th)
Turnovers Per Game12.1 (74th)13.5 (198th)
Blocks Per Game2.8 (203rd)5.6 (10th)
Steals Per Game5.2 (288th)9.0 (8th)
Opp Turnovers Per Game11.8 (283rd)16.9 (10th)
Opp Blocks Per Game3.2 (173rd)2.9 (94th)
Opp Steals Per Game5.9 (108th)5.6 (67th)
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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