Production Per Minute: add up the good stats, subtract the bad stats, and divide by minutes played. This gets you a score for most productive player “per minute played”. I rank the team in two categories “main rotation” – essentially guys you expect to see every game, and “occasional rotation”, which are the players you do not see every night. I rank the Main Rotation in order from most productive to least.
One thing I have noticed about the team this year: the top 2 players are consistently Russ and Trezl. Consistency is a good ting. The problem the 3 spot on down shuffles quite a bit. Without reliable consistency – we can struggle against ranked teams. You need at least 3 (IMO) contributing at a high level to beat a ranked team playing well.
The 8-6-4 Rule. In a winning formula against a ranked opponent you hope your star player (or hopefully 2) are over 0.80. The other starters over 0.60, and your subs to be over 0.40. Effective production spells a win.
How did the Cards do against Memphis?
Star Power = A, 2 players averaging well over the 0.80 mark.
Other Starters = C , coming in half the rate (0.29) of the ideal (0.60) target.
Bench = C , coming in a little over half the rate (0.23) of the ideal (0.40) target
Cards still had the chance to win, but you can only survive sub-par production from supporting roles.
Last 5 games & The 5 before
Now let’s look at recent trends. I am grabbing the last 10 games and blocking them in groups of 5 to see you is giving us production now (last 5 games), or in the near past (The “5 before”). Again, Russ and Harrell are mainstays. after that – its a crap shoot. Take a look at the rankings of the two blocks and you will see the only thing consistent outside of Russ and Harrell is Mangok Mathiang at the #4 spot.
Last 5 Games: Per Minute observations
- Rinse and repeat, Harrell and Smith make us go.
- Rise of Rozier; Rozier is the 3rd most productive guy in the past 5 games. Lowest score being against Memphis unfortunately.
- Matihiang is consistently the teams #4 producer. He had a stinker against Memphis, but he needs minutes.
- Jones and Blackshear are the lowest per minute value in our “usually” 8 man rotation. I do not weigh the 4 guys that see limited minutes (Henderson, Agau, Gill, Levitch).
The “5 Games Before”: Per Minute Observations
- SVT at the #3 spot was good to see. He has slipped since then, but his production is still solidly in the reserve range 0.40 – 0.60.
- Blackshear (against weaker competition) was rolling around in the starter range (0.60 +), but his last 5 dropped him into reserve range with a 0.39. Hopefully, trend that reverses soon.
Again we see in the “steady production games” Column that Russ & Harrell have an amazing pace of consistency. A few others had small streaks going, but lost it vs. Memphis. You want to win a title, or go to a final four, you need consistent production – and that is something the Cards are still struggling to achieve.
Finding a consistent #3 night in and night out is the difference between being a Sweet 16 team or a Final Four contender.
They can achieve it, but the the question is will they achieve it in time?
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