The University of Louisville & the University of Kentucky square off tonight in the KFC Yum! Center. The Cats have a decided advantage in the series, especially recently. Louisville has the home court tonight, but UK fans always find a way to bring large numbers to the KFC Yum! Center. The UK game begins a TOUGH 4 game stretch for the Cards where UofL will see four ranked teams consecutively on its schedule, so it’s important that win or lose tonight the Cards not get too high or too low.
My Prediction
Louisville has not fared well vs. Kentucky as of late. This year’s Cats are all about offense and can get buckets basically on demand. Louisville’s defense is one of the best in the nation.
I think both teams are missing ‘something’. Louisville is missing something on offense (Rick Pitino often cites passing) and Kentucky is missing something on defense (especially in the half court). UofL has an experience edge……but Kentucky has some elite level guard talent.
Personally I think for Louisville to win it has to avoid the scoring lull that always seems to plague UofL, even against lower level competition. The Cards have the defense to frustrate Kentucky and if I am Rick Pitino I mix & match pace to keep UK off balance and out of a rhythm. If Louisville can absorb the blows early on and not dig itself into a hole I like Louisville………… but I’ll believe it when I see it.
De’Aaron Fox is an incredible player offensively and should be able to take Quentin Snider into the lane often. Quentin needs to return the favor because Fox’s weakness is on the defensive side. Also expect for Donovan Mitchell to really make Malik Monk work hard off the ball. If Q & Mitchell deny the passing of Fox and contain Monk then Louisville wins the game…….. but that’s a HUGE if.
Isaiah Briscoe is going to get his production and it will be interesting to watch & see if Deng Adel rises to the challenge OR if Rick Pitino allows VJ King to get in there and mix it up. VJ could also play some 2-guard during stretches if Ryan McMahon and David Levitch are unable to match Fox & Monk. This is also an important game for Tony Hicks defensively.
Inside Kentucky has the best big man, but Louisville has the advantage. Edrice Adebayo is going to be a handful for the Cards, but UofL has the numbers to avoid being put in a bad position. Ray Spalding, Jaylen Johnson, and Anas Mahmoud should have a big advantage offensively inside, but this is going to be a game for the Guards.
In the end, I have to go with history and trends. My heart wants Louisville. My head says Kentucky. I’ll just believe Louisville can beat UK when I see it (same with Virginia).
93-88 Kentucky
Team Stats
| Louisville | Kentucky | |
| Strength of Schedule (Ken Pom) | 92nd | 127th |
| PPG | 78.5 (64th) | 95.2 (2nd) |
| Avg Scoring Margin | +19.1 (13th) | +23.5 (4th) |
| Field Goal % | 43.4% (184th) | 49.0% (26th) |
| 2-pt FG % | 48.3% (194th) | 55.7% (29th) |
| 3-pt FG % | 32.9% (243rd) | 34.2% (190th) |
| FT % | 68.9% (182nd) | 68.8% (184th) |
| Rebound Rate | 55.7% (15th) | 54.0% (37th) |
| Blocks Per Game | 7.3 (4th) | 7.1 (5th) |
| Steals Per Game | 7.5 (51st) | 7.1 (77th) |
| Assists Per Game | 14.9 (87th) | 19.9 (3rd) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 11.5 (39th) | 11.4 (33rd) |
| Opp Turnovers Per Game | 16.2 (28th) | 17.6 (5th) |
| Team Fouls Per Game | 18.8 (128th) | 19.1 (151st) |
| Opp Shooting % | 35.9% (5th) | 39.8% (47th) |
| Opp 2-pt FG % | 39.7% (7th) | 36.0% (91st) |
| Opp 3-Pt FG % | 28.7% (22nd) | 28.6% (17th) |
| Opp Blocks Per Game | 2.9 (90th) | 2.8 (72nd) |
| Opp Steals Per Game | 5.3 (64th) | 5.0 (40th) |
STARTERS
| Quentin Snider | De’Aaron Fox | |||
| 6-2, 175, Jr. | 6-3, 187, Fr. | |||
| Minutes | 28.0 | Minutes | 30.6 | |
| Points | 11.0 | Points | 15.9 | |
| FG % | 32.2% | FG % | 43.90% | |
| 3P % | 33.3% | 3P % | 13.00% | |
| FT% | 71.8% | FT% | 74.60% | |
| Rebounds | 2.5 | Rebounds | 5.30 | |
| Assists | 3.8 | Assists | 7.20 | |
| Steals | 0.1 | Steals | 1.70 | |
| Blocks | 0.0 | Blocks | 0.30 | |
| Turnovers | 1.2 | Turnovers | 2.40 | |
| Fouls | 1.4 | Fouls | 2.10 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | Malik Monk | |||
| 6-3, 200, Soph | 6-3, 200, Fr. | |||
| Minutes | 28.5 | Minutes | 28.9 | |
| Points | 11.7 | Points | 21.9 | |
| FG % | 37.50% | FG % | 50.30% | |
| 3P % | 29.00% | 3P % | 42.20% | |
| FT% | 77.80% | FT% | 82.10% | |
| Rebounds | 5.70 | Rebounds | 2.40 | |
| Assists | 2.4 | Assists | 2.40 | |
| Steals | 2.5 | Steals | 1.10 | |
| Blocks | 0.7 | Blocks | 0.40 | |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | Turnovers | 1.80 | |
| Fouls | 1.7 | Fouls | 1.80 | |
| Deng Adel | Isaiah Briscoe | |||
| 6-7, 200, Soph | 6-3, 210, Soph | |||
| Minutes | 28.2 | Minutes | 29.8 | |
| Points | 9.7 | Points | 15.9 | |
| FG % | 35.50% | FG % | 54.50% | |
| 3P % | 28.90% | 3P % | 27.80% | |
| FT% | 80.00% | FT% | 66.70% | |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | Rebounds | 3.40 | |
| Assists | 2.1 | Assists | 3.60 | |
| Steals | 1.0 | Steals | 1.20 | |
| Blocks | 0.5 | Blocks | 0.30 | |
| Turnovers | 1.2 | Turnovers | 2.20 | |
| Fouls | 1.9 | Fouls | 2.40 | |
| Jaylen Johnson | Wenyen Gabriel | |||
| 6-9, 230, Jr. | 6-9, 213, Fr. | |||
| Minutes | 21.1 | Minutes | 20.5 | |
| Points | 9.5 | Points | 6.5 | |
| FG % | 62.35% | FG % | 51.90% | |
| 3P % | 33.30% | 3P % | 20.00% | |
| FT% | 53.10% | FT% | 77.80% | |
| Rebounds | 8.1 | Rebounds | 5.80 | |
| Assists | 0.4 | Assists | 1.40 | |
| Steals | 0.4 | Steals | 0.50 | |
| Blocks | 1.2 | Blocks | 0.80 | |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | Turnovers | 1.10 | |
| Fouls | 2.3 | Fouls | 2.80 | |
| Mangok Mathiang | Edrice Adebayo | |||
| 6-10, 230, Sr. | 6-10, 260, Fr. | |||
| Minutes | 19.9 | Minutes | 24.7 | |
| Points | 6.8 | Points | 12.6 | |
| FG % | 43.30% | FG % | 54.50% | |
| 3P % | 0% | 3P % | 0% | |
| FT% | 62.20% | FT% | 65.20% | |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | Rebounds | 7.9 | |
| Assists | 0.9 | Assists | 0.9 | |
| Steals | 0.5 | Steals | 0.4 | |
| Blocks | 1.3 | Blocks | 1.6 | |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | Turnovers | 1.2 | |
| Fouls | 2.8 | Fouls | 2.6 |
BENCH
| Ryan McMahon | Dominique Hawkins | |||
| 6-0, 170, Fr. | 6-0, 191, Sr. | |||
| Minutes | 6.6 | Minutes | 16.8 | |
| Points | 2.3 | Points | 3.4 | |
| FG % | 33.3% | FG % | 33.30% | |
| 3P % | 36.8% | 3P % | 29.40% | |
| FT% | 100.0% | FT% | 83.30% | |
| Rebounds | 0.6 | Rebounds | 1.90 | |
| Assists | 0.9 | Assists | 2.80 | |
| Steals | 0.2 | Steals | 0.60 | |
| Blocks | 0.2 | Blocks | 0.00 | |
| Turnovers | 0.3 | Turnovers | 0.30 | |
| Fouls | 1.1 | Fouls | 1.60 | |
| Tony Hicks | ||||
| 6-1, 180, Sr. | ||||
| Minutes | 12.3 | Minutes | ||
| Points | 3.9 | Points | ||
| FG % | 27.30% | FG % | ||
| 3P % | 25.00% | 3P % | ||
| FT% | 75.00% | FT% | ||
| Rebounds | 1.40 | Rebounds | ||
| Assists | 1.6 | Assists | ||
| Steals | 0.7 | Steals | ||
| Blocks | 0.0 | Blocks | ||
| Turnovers | 1.4 | Turnovers | ||
| Fouls | 0.4 | Fouls | ||
| David Levitch | ||||
| 6-3, 180, Sr. | ||||
| Minutes | 8.5 | Minutes | ||
| Points | 2.5 | Points | ||
| FG % | 47.60% | FG % | ||
| 3P % | 54.50% | 3P % | ||
| FT% | 33.30% | FT% | ||
| Rebounds | 1.40% | Rebounds | ||
| Assists | 0.8 | Assists | ||
| Steals | 0.5 | Steals | ||
| Blocks | 0.0 | Blocks | ||
| Turnovers | 0.1 | Turnovers | ||
| Fouls | 0.5 | Fouls | ||
| VJ King | Mychal Mulder | |||
| 6-6, 190, Fr. | 6-4, 185, Sr. | |||
| Minutes | 14.8 | Minutes | 12.3 | |
| Points | 7.9 | Points | 7.8 | |
| FG % | 45.00% | FG % | 45.60% | |
| 3P % | 53.30% | 3P % | 41.00% | |
| FT% | 83.30% | FT% | 100.00% | |
| Rebounds | 2.8 | Rebounds | 2.60 | |
| Assists | 0.5 | Assists | 0.40 | |
| Steals | 0.2 | Steals | 0.30 | |
| Blocks | 0.1 | Blocks | 0.40 | |
| Turnovers | 0.6 | Turnovers | 0.30 | |
| Fouls | 0.7 | Fouls | 1.00 | |
| Ray Spalding | Derek Willis | |||
| 6-10, 215, Soph | 6-9, 228, Sr. | |||
| Minutes | 18.8 | Minutes | 18.3 | |
| Points | 7.3 | Points | 6.9 | |
| FG % | 65.40% | FG % | 51.90% | |
| 3P % | 0% | 3P % | 36.7% | |
| FT% | 63.20% | FT% | 90.00% | |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | Rebounds | 3.7 | |
| Assists | 0.9 | Assists | 1.1 | |
| Steals | 0.7 | Steals | 0.9 | |
| Blocks | 1.3 | Blocks | 1.1 | |
| Turnovers | 0.9 | Turnovers | 0.6 | |
| Fouls | 3 | Fouls | 1.4 | |
| Anas Mahmoud | Sacha Killeya-Jones | |||
| 7-0, 215, Jr. | 6-10, 230, Fr. | |||
| Minutes | 17.8 | Minutes | 8.5 | |
| Points | 5.5 | Points | 3.6 | |
| FG % | 71.40% | FG % | 61.50% | |
| 3P % | 0.00% | 3P % | 0.00% | |
| FT% | 57.10% | FT% | 30.80% | |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | Rebounds | 2.70 | |
| Assists | 1.0 | Assists | 0.10 | |
| Steals | 0.9 | Steals | 0.10 | |
| Blocks | 2.5 | Blocks | 1.00 | |
| Turnovers | 1.1 | Turnovers | 0.60 | |
| Fouls | 2.9 | Fouls | 1.60 | |
| Matz Stockman | Isaac Humphries | |||
| 7-0, 240, Jr | 7-0, 255, Soph | |||
| Minutes | 5.4 | Minutes | 11.8 | |
| Points | 2.6 | Points | 3.9 | |
| FG % | 62.50% | FG % | 46.30% | |
| 3P % | 0% | 3P % | 0% | |
| FT% | 60.00% | FT% | 45.50% | |
| Rebounds | 1.8 | Rebounds | 4.4 | |
| Assists | 0.3 | Assists | 0.5 | |
| Steals | 0.2 | Steals | 0.5 | |
| Blocks | 0.2 | Blocks | 1.2 | |
| Turnovers | 0.5 | Turnovers | 0.6 | |
| Fouls | 0.7 | Fouls | 2.0 |
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