Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000) Louisville, KY
Game Time: 9:00, 1-20-2016
Line: Louisville -10
Series History: Louisville leads 31-9 (17-2 in Louisville)
Last Time: Louisville 81, Florida State 59 (in Tallahassee Yum Center 2-28-15)
TV: ESPNU – Mike Couzens, Len Elmore
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 84, XM 84
Game Officials: Tim Nestor, Bill Covington, Jr., Terry Wymer

Prediction

Louisville has beaten Florida State in basketball more than any other program in the Power 5.  UofL is 31-9 against the Noles with most of those match-ups coming in the 70s & 80s when the two schools were a part of the same conference.

Florida State is a BIG team and its worst loss (of 5) so far in 2015-16 was early in the year to Hofstra. Outside of the Hofstra game FSU has 4 other quality losses:  vs.  #2 North Carolina, @ #9 Iowa, @ #15 Miami, and @ Clemson.

Louisville is a better shooting team and significantly better defensively team than Florida State.  Additionally the Cards rebound better and turn the ball over less.   If UofL plays defense like it did 6 days ago vs. Pitt, Florida State won’t be able to match the Cards for another 9:00 start in the Yum! Center.

Personally I don’t think we’ll see the same defensive effort on Wednesday, but I think Damion Lee & Trey Lewis shake out of their slump and Louisville rolls on to Atlanta for a Saturday match-up vs. Georgia Tech.

Louisville 76, Florida State 62

Team Stats

Louisville Florida State
Strength of Schedule (KenPom) 227th 26th
Points Per Game 80.5 80.2 (36th)
Avg Scoring Margin +22.8 (1st) +7.2 (63rd)
Field Goal % 49.3% (11th) 46.1% (67th)
2-point FG% 54.7% (24th) 51.8% (64th)
3-point FG% 35.4% (135th) 33.2% (216th)
Free Throw % 68.8% (202nd) 72.1% (83rd)
Rebound Rate 58.7% (2nd) 52.7% (69th)
Blocks Per Game 5.4 (24th) 3.9 (112th)
Steals Per Game 7.8 (31st) 7.4 (51st)
Assists Per Game 13.5 (152nd) 13.1 (176th)
Turnovers Per Game 11.8 (75th) 13.2 (197th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game 14.9 (41st) 14.1 (77th)
Team Fouls Per Game 19.5 (172nd) 18.8 (111th)
Opponent Shooting % 35.7% (1st) 43.0% (141st)
Opponent 2-point FG% 38.6% (2nd) 48.6% (173rd)
Opponent 3-point FG% 30.5% (25th) 33.4% (119th)
Opponent Block Per Game 3.1 (105th) 2.9 (73rd)
Opponent Steals Per Game 5.3 (52nd) 5.1 (37th)
*351 teams Play Division 1

Projected Starters

  Quentin Snider Xavier Rathan-Mayes
  6-1, 180, Soph 6-4 190, Soph
Minutes 27.9 30
Points 9.8 12.1
Field Goal % 42.4% 40.5
3-point % 42.3% 31.5
FT % 69.7% 80.7
Rebounds 2.2 3.7
Assists 3.8 5.3
Steals 0.9 1
Blocks 0.0 0
Turnovers 1.4 2.6
Fouls 1.9 2.2
     
  Trey Lewis Malik Beasley
  6-2, 190, Sr. 6-5 190, Fr.
Minutes 28.0 28.8
Points 12.6 17.1
Field Goal % 42.70% 49.00%
3-point % 37.80% 41.20%
FT % 84.10% 85.70%
Rebounds 3.8 5.9
Assists 2.5 1.2
Steals 1.0 1.1
Blocks 0.2 0.1
Turnovers 1.8 1.4
Fouls 1.9 2.0
     
  Damion Lee Dwayne Bacon
  6-6, 200, Sr. 6-7, 210, Fr.
Minutes 31.4 28.2
Points 16.7 16.7
Field Goal % 46.6% 48.0%
3-point % 34.8% 30.4%
FT % 87.8% 72.9%
Rebounds 3.8 5.4
Assists 1.6 1.4
Steals 1.6 1.1
Blocks 0.1 0.1
Turnovers 1.3 2.2
Fouls 1.9 1.9
     
  Jaylen Johnson Montay Brandon
  6-9, 215, Soph 6-8, 225, Sr.
Minutes 16.2 22.4
Points 5.6 3.7
Field Goal % 50.0% 42.60%
3-point % 14.3% 25.00%
FT % 47.1% 56.30%
Rebounds 3.8 3.5
Assists 0.5 0.8
Steals 0.3 0.7
Blocks 0.4 0.3
Turnovers 0.6 1.2
Fouls 1.9 1.8
     
  Chinanu Onuaku Boris Bojanovsky
  6-10, 230, Soph 7-3, 240, Sr.
Minutes 23 18.6
Points 10.5 6.3
Field Goal % 63.8% 47.8%
3-point % 0.0% 0.0%
FT % 53.1% 72.9%
Rebounds 8.8 4.1
Assists 1.0 0.6
Steals 0.8 0.6
Blocks 2.1 1.6
Turnovers 2.0 1.2
Fouls 2.6 3.0

Bench

  Donovan Mitchell Devon Bookert
  6-3, 210, Fr. 6-3, 193, Sr.
Minutes 20.4 24.6
Points 7.5 9.1
Field Goal % 45.10% 42.70%
3-point % 23.70% 37.10%
FT % 81.80% 80.00%
Rebounds 4.1 2.2
Assists 2.0 2.3
Steals 0.9 1.6
Blocks 0.1 0.1
Turnovers 0.9 1.3
Fouls 2.8 1.6
     
  David Levitch Benji Bell
  6-3, 180, Jr. 6-4, 190, Jr.
Minutes 6.6 9.8
Points 2.0 3.7
Field Goal % 61.50% 47.50%
3-point % 57.10% 38.90%
FT % 66.70% 60.90%
Rebounds 0.7 1.3
Assists 0.4 0.8
Steals 0.3 0.3
Blocks 0.0 0.0
Turnovers 0.2 1.0
Fouls 0.5 1.0
     
  Deng Adel Terance Mann
  6-7, 200, Fr. 6-6, 200, Fr.
Minutes 8.8 15.4
Points 2.6 4.2
Field Goal % 33.30% 52.60%
3-point % 0.00% 16.70%
FT % 75.00% 44.00%
Rebounds 1.6 3.7
Assists 0.6 0.4
Steals 0.0 0.6
Blocks 0.1 0.2
Turnovers 1.1 0.6
Fouls 0.9 1.2
     
  Ray Spalding Jarquez Smith
  6-10, 210, Fr. 6-9, 225, Jr.
Minutes 17.2 12.8
Points 5.9 4.1
Field Goal % 66.70% 45.20%
3-point % 0.00% 16.70%
FT % 41.90% 63.20%
Rebounds 4.8 2.8
Assists 0.6 0.4
Steals 1.0 0.4
Blocks 0.8 0.7
Turnovers 1.1 1.3
Fouls 1.9 2.4
     
  Matz Stockman  
  7-0, 240, Soph  
Minutes 6.5  
Points 3.2  
Field Goal % 60.90%  
3-point % 0.00%  
FT % 53.80%  
Rebounds 2.4  
Assists 0.2  
Steals 0.0  
Blocks 0.2  
Turnovers 0.5  
Fouls 1.1  
     
  Anas Mahmoud  
  7-0, 200, Soph  
Minutes 11.1  
Points 2.6  
Field Goal % 46.70%  
3-point % 0.00%  
FT % 42.90%  
Rebounds 3  
Assists 0.4  
Steals 0.4  
Blocks 1.2  
Turnovers 0.9  
Fouls 1.6  
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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