PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Florida State

Mark BlankenbakerJanuary 20, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000) Louisville, KY
Game Time: 9:00, 1-20-2016
Line: Louisville -10
Series History: Louisville leads 31-9 (17-2 in Louisville)
Last Time: Louisville 81, Florida State 59 (in Tallahassee Yum Center 2-28-15)
TV: ESPNU – Mike Couzens, Len Elmore
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 84, XM 84
Game Officials: Tim Nestor, Bill Covington, Jr., Terry Wymer

Prediction

Louisville has beaten Florida State in basketball more than any other program in the Power 5. UofL is 31-9 against the Noles with most of those match-ups coming in the 70s & 80s when the two schools were a part of the same conference.

Florida State is a BIG team and its worst loss (of 5) so far in 2015-16 was early in the year to Hofstra. Outside of the Hofstra game FSU has 4 other quality losses: vs. #2 North Carolina, @ #9 Iowa, @ #15 Miami, and @ Clemson.

Louisville is a better shooting team and significantly better defensively team than Florida State. Additionally the Cards rebound better and turn the ball over less. If UofL plays defense like it did 6 days ago vs. Pitt, Florida State won’t be able to match the Cards for another 9:00 start in the Yum! Center.

Personally I don’t think we’ll see the same defensive effort on Wednesday, but I think Damion Lee & Trey Lewis shake out of their slump and Louisville rolls on to Atlanta for a Saturday match-up vs. Georgia Tech.

Louisville 76, Florida State 62

Team Stats

	Louisville	Florida State
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	227th	26th
Points Per Game	80.5	80.2 (36th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+22.8 (1st)	+7.2 (63rd)
Field Goal %	49.3% (11th)	46.1% (67th)
2-point FG%	54.7% (24th)	51.8% (64th)
3-point FG%	35.4% (135th)	33.2% (216th)
Free Throw %	68.8% (202nd)	72.1% (83rd)
Rebound Rate	58.7% (2nd)	52.7% (69th)
Blocks Per Game	5.4 (24th)	3.9 (112th)
Steals Per Game	7.8 (31st)	7.4 (51st)
Assists Per Game	13.5 (152nd)	13.1 (176th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.8 (75th)	13.2 (197th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.9 (41st)	14.1 (77th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.5 (172nd)	18.8 (111th)
Opponent Shooting %	35.7% (1st)	43.0% (141st)
Opponent 2-point FG%	38.6% (2nd)	48.6% (173rd)
Opponent 3-point FG%	30.5% (25th)	33.4% (119th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.1 (105th)	2.9 (73rd)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.3 (52nd)	5.1 (37th)

	*351 teams Play Division 1

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Xavier Rathan-Mayes
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-4 190, Soph
Minutes	27.9	30
Points	9.8	12.1
Field Goal %	42.4%	40.5
3-point %	42.3%	31.5
FT %	69.7%	80.7
Rebounds	2.2	3.7
Assists	3.8	5.3
Steals	0.9	1
Blocks	0.0	0
Turnovers	1.4	2.6
Fouls	1.9	2.2

	Trey Lewis	Malik Beasley
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-5 190, Fr.
Minutes	28.0	28.8
Points	12.6	17.1
Field Goal %	42.70%	49.00%
3-point %	37.80%	41.20%
FT %	84.10%	85.70%
Rebounds	3.8	5.9
Assists	2.5	1.2
Steals	1.0	1.1
Blocks	0.2	0.1
Turnovers	1.8	1.4
Fouls	1.9	2.0

	Damion Lee	Dwayne Bacon
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-7, 210, Fr.
Minutes	31.4	28.2
Points	16.7	16.7
Field Goal %	46.6%	48.0%
3-point %	34.8%	30.4%
FT %	87.8%	72.9%
Rebounds	3.8	5.4
Assists	1.6	1.4
Steals	1.6	1.1
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.3	2.2
Fouls	1.9	1.9

	Jaylen Johnson	Montay Brandon
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 225, Sr.
Minutes	16.2	22.4
Points	5.6	3.7
Field Goal %	50.0%	42.60%
3-point %	14.3%	25.00%
FT %	47.1%	56.30%
Rebounds	3.8	3.5
Assists	0.5	0.8
Steals	0.3	0.7
Blocks	0.4	0.3
Turnovers	0.6	1.2
Fouls	1.9	1.8

	Chinanu Onuaku	Boris Bojanovsky
	6-10, 230, Soph	7-3, 240, Sr.
Minutes	23	18.6
Points	10.5	6.3
Field Goal %	63.8%	47.8%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	53.1%	72.9%
Rebounds	8.8	4.1
Assists	1.0	0.6
Steals	0.8	0.6
Blocks	2.1	1.6
Turnovers	2.0	1.2
Fouls	2.6	3.0

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Devon Bookert
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-3, 193, Sr.
Minutes	20.4	24.6
Points	7.5	9.1
Field Goal %	45.10%	42.70%
3-point %	23.70%	37.10%
FT %	81.80%	80.00%
Rebounds	4.1	2.2
Assists	2.0	2.3
Steals	0.9	1.6
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	0.9	1.3
Fouls	2.8	1.6

	David Levitch	Benji Bell
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-4, 190, Jr.
Minutes	6.6	9.8
Points	2.0	3.7
Field Goal %	61.50%	47.50%
3-point %	57.10%	38.90%
FT %	66.70%	60.90%
Rebounds	0.7	1.3
Assists	0.4	0.8
Steals	0.3	0.3
Blocks	0.0	0.0
Turnovers	0.2	1.0
Fouls	0.5	1.0

	Deng Adel	Terance Mann
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-6, 200, Fr.
Minutes	8.8	15.4
Points	2.6	4.2
Field Goal %	33.30%	52.60%
3-point %	0.00%	16.70%
FT %	75.00%	44.00%
Rebounds	1.6	3.7
Assists	0.6	0.4
Steals	0.0	0.6
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.1	0.6
Fouls	0.9	1.2

	Ray Spalding	Jarquez Smith
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-9, 225, Jr.
Minutes	17.2	12.8
Points	5.9	4.1
Field Goal %	66.70%	45.20%
3-point %	0.00%	16.70%
FT %	41.90%	63.20%
Rebounds	4.8	2.8
Assists	0.6	0.4
Steals	1.0	0.4
Blocks	0.8	0.7
Turnovers	1.1	1.3
Fouls	1.9	2.4

	Matz Stockman
	7-0, 240, Soph
Minutes	6.5
Points	3.2
Field Goal %	60.90%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	53.80%
Rebounds	2.4
Assists	0.2
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.2
Turnovers	0.5
Fouls	1.1

	Anas Mahmoud
	7-0, 200, Soph
Minutes	11.1
Points	2.6
Field Goal %	46.70%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	42.90%
Rebounds	3
Assists	0.4
Steals	0.4
Blocks	1.2
Turnovers	0.9
Fouls	1.6