PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Syracuse

Mark BlankenbakerFebruary 17, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000)
Game Time: 7:00, 2-17-2016
Line: Louisville -7.5
Series History: UofL Leads 15-8 (7-3 in Louisville)
Last Time: Syracuse 69, Louisville 59 (2-18-2015 in Syracuse)
TV: ESPN with Bob Wischusen & LaPhonso Ellis
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 81, XM 81
Game Officials: Roger Ayers, Bryan Kersey, Sean Hull

My Prediction

Syracuse owns one of the most shallow benches in the country sometimes only playing 6 players in a game. Syracuse is also not afraid to shoot it. The Orange will launch from any where and every where and from multiple different positions. When Syracuse gets hot they are tough to beat, but their shots aren’t always of the highest quality, they rebound OK, and their defense is good but not Syracuse great.

This is an average team by Syracuse and Jim Boeheim standards but if Louisville doesn’t get out and guard the Orange (particularly the 1-3 spots) then the Cards could be in for a long night.

Ultimately this game will do a lot for Louisville’s ball movement and will test their patience. It’s great prep for the type of mentality (not the same ball movement) that UofL will need to beat Virginia in a few weeks in Charlottesville.

The Cards will be without Anas Mahmoud for the 1st time this season after a badly sprained ankle. Couple that with UofL already being without Mangok Mathiang and Louisville’s luxury of bigs from the start of the season is without a few key pieces. As such Louisville will have to go with Matz Stockman in stretches and perhaps even play Deng Adel down at the 4. Against Syracuse Adel at the 4 spot doesn’t hurt you too much as the Orange aren’t overly big and it doesn’t create a mis-match.

Louisville will need to pass the ball vs. Syracuse. Any over dribbling or passing up good opportunities in side the arc are going to be penalized by SU. Don’t expect to get much room from outside, and while there can’t be a lot of dribbling there does need to be penetration.

This is a game that will test Louisville’s mental state following the post-season ban and two consecutive losses on the road to Duke & Notre Dame. UofL is capable of winning, but not if they are hanging their heads. It’s also a great opportunity to get some positive mojo going to end the season, send the seniors out the right way, and build towards next season. I think the Cards shape up and win this one.

Louisville 72, Syracuse 61

Team Stats

	Louisville	Syracuse
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	82nd	43rd
Points Per Game	77.9 (56th)	71.1 (203rd)
Avg Scoring Margin	+17.1 (1st)	+6.7 (66th)
Field Goal %	47.8% (22nd)	42.6% (231st)
2-point FG%	52.1% (53rd)	47.2% (226th)
3-point FG%	36.5% (85th)	36.6% (84th)
Free Throw %	69.3% (190th)	68.3% (233rd)
Rebound Rate	56.1% (9th)	50.1% (169th)
Blocks Per Game	5.2 (25th)	4.2 (80th)
Steals Per Game	7.3 (48th)	8.1 (14th)
Assists Per Game	13.3 (159th)	13.7 (134th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.9 (89th)	11.7 (75th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.4 (50th)	13.3 (117th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.3 (148th)	16.7 (22nd)
Opponent Shooting %	38.1% (6th)	40.6% (46th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	41.8% (13th)	47.7% (136th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	31.2% (29th)	30.4% (15th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.2 (116th)	2.7 (34th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.5 (77th)	6.1 (187th)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Trevor Cooney
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-4, 195, Sr.
Minutes	28.7	37.3
Points	9.8	13.3
Field Goal %	40.0%	34.50%
3-point %	41.3%	35.60%
FT %	73.2%	77.90%
Rebounds	2.4	2.6
Assists	3.6	2.6
Steals	0.8	1.7
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.3	1.7
Fouls	2.0	1.5

	Trey Lewis	Malachi Richardson
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-6, 195, Fr.
Minutes	27.9	33.7
Points	12.2	13.6
Field Goal %	43.50%	38.60%
3-point %	37.60%	36.30%
FT %	85.30%	71.70%
Rebounds	3.4	4.6
Assists	2.3	2.0
Steals	1.0	1.1
Blocks	0.1	0.3
Turnovers	1.8	1.8
Fouls	1.7	2.3

	Damion Lee	Michael Gbinije
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-7, 200, Sr.
Minutes	32.8	37.9
Points	16.5	17.4
Field Goal %	45.1%	46.9%
3-point %	36.7%	39.6%
FT %	86.0%	67.5%
Rebounds	3.9	4.0
Assists	2.0	4.3
Steals	1.5	2.3
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.7	2.8
Fouls	2.1	2.7

	Jaylen Johnson	Tyler Roberson
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 212, Jr.
Minutes	16.8	31.8
Points	5.0	9.8
Field Goal %	45.5%	51.70%
3-point %	22.2%	0.00%
FT %	50.0%	53.00%
Rebounds	3.8	8.8
Assists	0.5	1.3
Steals	0.4	0.6
Blocks	0.4	0.7
Turnovers	0.7	1.7
Fouls	1.8	2.4

	Chinanu Onuaku	DaJuan Coleman
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-9, 255, Sr.
Minutes	23.0	16.8
Points	9.6	4.9
Field Goal %	61.6%	54.5%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	58.3%	71.1%
Rebounds	8.4	4.3
Assists	1.2	0.5
Steals	0.8	0.6
Blocks	2.0	0.8
Turnovers	2.1	1.3
Fouls	2.9	2.8

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Franlin Howard
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-4, 170, Fr.
Minutes	20.1	9.5
Points	8.2	1.5
Field Goal %	46.30%	24.40%
3-point %	28.80%	7.10%
FT %	73.60%	52.90%
Rebounds	3.5	1.4
Assists	1.7	1.6
Steals	0.8	0.2
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	0.7
Fouls	2.6	1

	David Levitch
	6-3, 180, Jr.
Minutes	6.7
Points	2.1
Field Goal %	60.00%
3-point %	55.60%
FT %	72.70%
Rebounds	0.7
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.3
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	0.3
Fouls	0.5

	Deng Adel	Tyler Lydon
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-8, 205, Fr.
Minutes	9.5	29.7
Points	3.3	9.6
Field Goal %	42.90%	48.00%
3-point %	33.30%	44.70%
FT %	73.70%	78.90%
Rebounds	1.8	6.7
Assists	0.6	1.3
Steals	0.2	1.2
Blocks	0.1	1.6
Turnovers	1.0	1.1
Fouls	0.9	2.8

	Ray Spalding
	6-10, 210, Fr.
Minutes	17.6
Points	5.9
Field Goal %	56.30%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	50.00%
Rebounds	4.6
Assists	0.5
Steals	1.0
Blocks	0.7
Turnovers	1.0
Fouls	2.2

	Matz Stockman
	7-0, 240, Soph
Minutes	5.8
Points	2.9
Field Goal %	66.70%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	52.90%
Rebounds	1.9
Assists	0.1
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.3
Turnovers	0.4
Fouls	0.9