Louisville Scoring Offense Evaluation
| Scoring Defense | Louisville Scored vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Scored of Avg | |
| Miami (FL) | 23.4 | 31 | 7.6 | 132.48% |
| Virginia | 24.1 | 21 | -3.1 | 87.14% |
| FIU | 24.8 | 34 | 9.2 | 137.10% |
| Wake Forest | 25.1 | 20 | -5.1 | 79.68% |
| Syracuse | 24 | 28 | 4 | 116.67% |
| Clemson | 17.6 | 17 | -0.6 | 96.59% |
| NC State | 28.8 | 30 | 1.2 | 104.17% |
| Florida State | 22.3 | 31 | 8.7 | 139.01% |
| Boston College | 21.7 | 38 | 16.3 | 175.12% |
| Notre Dame | 27.5 | 31 | 3.5 | 112.73% |
| Kentucky | 30.1 | Average | 4.17 | 118.07% |
UofL scores about 4 points or 118% of what opponents have allowed in 2014. Louisville has exceeded the average points allowed in 7 of 10 FBS games.
Kentucky allows more points per game than any team Louisville has faced in 2014.
Kentucky Scoring Defense Evaluation
| Scoring Offense | Kentucky Allowed vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Scored of Avg | |
| Ohio | 20.2 | 3 | -17.2 | 14.85% |
| Florida | 31.6 | 36 | 4.4 | 113.92% |
| Vanderbilt | 17.2 | 7 | -10.2 | 40.70% |
| South Carolina | 34.8 | 38 | 3.2 | 109.20% |
| UL Monroe | 20.5 | 14 | -6.5 | 68.29% |
| LSU | 28 | 41 | 13 | 146.43% |
| Mississippi State | 39 | 45 | 6 | 115.38% |
| Missouri | 29.3 | 20 | -9.3 | 68.26% |
| Georgia | 43.3 | 63 | 19.7 | 145.50% |
| Tennessee | 27.9 | 50 | 22.1 | 179.21% |
| Louisville | 31.5 | Average | 2.520 | 100.17% |
UK has allowed teams to basically meet their average production on the scoreboard in 2014. The Cats allow 2.5 more points per game than teams usually score, but Kentucky has held 4 teams (Ohio, Vandy, Missouri, and Monroe) to less than their average points scored.
Louisville will be the 5th highest scoring team Kentucky will face in 2014 just behind Florida (also South Carolina, Miss State, & Georgia).
Louisville Total Offense Evaluation
| Total Defense | Louisville Gained vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Miami (FL) | 324.6 | 336 | 11.4 | 103.51% |
| Virginia | 345.9 | 282 | -63.9 | 81.53% |
| FIU | 363.8 | 336 | -27.8 | 92.36% |
| Wake Forest | 362.9 | 421 | 58.1 | 116.01% |
| Syracuse | 353.5 | 352 | -1.5 | 99.58% |
| Clemson | 252.4 | 264 | 11.6 | 104.60% |
| NC State | 388.2 | 369 | -19.2 | 95.05% |
| Florida State | 379.2 | 488 | 108.8 | 128.69% |
| Boston College | 329.6 | 423 | 93.4 | 128.34% |
| Notre Dame | 385.5 | 409 | 23.5 | 106.10% |
| Kentucky | 401 | Average | 19.44 | 105.58% |
The Cards have actually gained about 19 yards more or 105% of what opposing defenses usually have allowed on the season. Louisville has gained 400+ yards on offense for 3 consecutive games in a row.
Kentucky is the worst defensive team that Louisville has faced in 2014.
Kentucky Total Defense Evaluation
| Total Offense | Kentucky Allowed vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Ohio | 371.8 | 223 | -148.8 | 59.98% |
| Florida | 379 | 532 | 153 | 140.37% |
| Vanderbilt | 289.8 | 139 | -150.8 | 47.96% |
| South Carolina | 461 | 500 | 39 | 108.46% |
| UL Monroe | 350.2 | 264 | -86.2 | 75.39% |
| LSU | 373.6 | 423 | 49.4 | 113.22% |
| Mississippi State | 511.7 | 542 | 30.3 | 105.92% |
| Missouri | 360.7 | 320 | -40.7 | 88.72% |
| Georgia | 461 | 559 | 98 | 121.26% |
| Tennessee | 372.2 | 511 | 138.8 | 137.29% |
| Louisville | 389.4 | Average | 8.2 | 99.86% |
UK’s Total Defense has really mirrored the performance of its opponents in 2014. The two worst performances of the season came vs. Florida, and then in the Cats most recent match-up two weeks ago vs. Tennessee. The best performances were vs. Vanderbilt & Ohio in the beginning of the season.
Louisville’s offense will be the 4th best offense Kentucky will face in 2014.
Louisville Passing Offense Evaluation
| Passing Defense | Louisville Gained vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Miami (FL) | 188.6 | 206 | 17.4 | 109.23% |
| Virginia | 232.3 | 203 | -29.3 | 87.39% |
| FIU | 203.3 | 324 | 120.7 | 159.37% |
| Wake Forest | 176.9 | 206 | 29.1 | 116.45% |
| Syracuse | 214.5 | 174 | -40.5 | 81.12% |
| Clemson | 151.5 | 212 | 60.5 | 139.93% |
| NC State | 199.4 | 203 | 3.6 | 101.81% |
| Florida State | 230.4 | 330 | 99.6 | 143.23% |
| Boston College | 231.8 | 257 | 25.2 | 110.87% |
| Notre Dame | 227.8 | 180 | -47.8 | 79.02% |
| Kentucky | 200 | Average | 23.85 | 112.84% |
UofL has faced six Top 45 Pass Defenses in 2014. Kentucky will be the 7th. The Cards have excelled despite the good defenses and gain about 23.85 yards more per game through the air than those defenses usually allow or 112.84%.
Kentucky Passing Defense Evaluation
| Passing Offense | Kentucky Allowed vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Ohio | 209.1 | 149 | -60.1 | 71.26% |
| Florida | 181.9 | 295 | 113.1 | 162.18% |
| Vanderbilt | 181.8 | 85 | -96.8 | 46.75% |
| South Carolina | 281.9 | 218 | -63.9 | 77.33% |
| UL Monroe | 276.1 | 187 | -89.1 | 67.73% |
| LSU | 169.1 | 120 | -49.1 | 70.96% |
| Mississippi State | 264.9 | 216 | -48.9 | 81.54% |
| Missouri | 183.1 | 164 | -19.1 | 89.57% |
| Georgia | 200.5 | 254 | 53.5 | 126.68% |
| Tennessee | 240.4 | 297 | 56.6 | 123.54% |
| Louisville | 233.9 | Average | -20.38 | 91.76% |
The Cats have done very well against the pass in 2014 and allow 20 yards fewer per game than opponents allow or 91.76% of the total.
Louisville will be the 5th best passing team the Wildcats have seen this season.
Louisville Rushing Offense Evaluation
| Rushing Defense | Louisville Gained vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Miami (FL) | 136 | 130 | -6 | 95.59% |
| Virginia | 113.64 | 79 | -34.64 | 69.52% |
| FIU | 160.42 | 12 | -148.42 | 7.48% |
| Wake Forest | 186 | 215 | 29 | 115.59% |
| Syracuse | 139 | 178 | 39 | 128.06% |
| Clemson | 100.82 | 52 | -48.82 | 51.58% |
| NC State | 188.82 | 166 | -22.82 | 87.91% |
| Florida State | 148.82 | 158 | 9.18 | 106.17% |
| Boston College | 97.82 | 166 | 68.18 | 169.70% |
| Notre Dame | 157.73 | 229 | 71.27 | 145.18% |
| Kentucky | 201 | Average | -4.407 | 97.68% |
The Cardinal rushing attack has increasingly shown improvement throughout 2014 and has run for 150+ yards on the ground in 6 of its last 7 contests. Still UofL gains about 4 yards less than what opponents typically allow despite having 3 consecutive games OVER the average allowed.
Kentucky will be the worst Rushing Defense Louisville will have faced in 2014.
Kentucky Rushing Defense Evaluation
| Rushing Offense | Kentucky Allowed vs. | Deviation from Avg. | % Gained of Avg | |
| Ohio | 162.73 | 74 | -88.73 | 45.47% |
| Florida | 197.1 | 237 | 39.9 | 120.24% |
| Vanderbilt | 108 | 54 | -54 | 50.00% |
| South Carolina | 179.09 | 282 | 102.91 | 157.46% |
| UL Monroe | 74.09 | 77 | 2.91 | 103.93% |
| LSU | 204.55 | 303 | 98.45 | 148.13% |
| Mississippi State | 246.82 | 326 | 79.18 | 132.08% |
| Missouri | 177.64 | 156 | -21.64 | 87.82% |
| Georgia | 260.55 | 305 | 44.45 | 117.06% |
| Tennessee | 131.82 | 214 | 82.18 | 162.34% |
| Louisville | 155.45 | Average | 28.561 | 112.45% |
UK has allowed over 300 yards rushing in 3 of its last 5 games (is that bad?). On average UK allows 28 more yards per game than what opponents usually gain or 112.45%. Louisville will bring in the 8th best rushing attack (or the 4th worst) that UK has seen in 2014.
Summary
Ranges (based on suggested math)
UofL Points: 31.55-35.54
UofL Total Yardage: 388.85-423.38
UofL Passing Yards: 213.52-225.68
UofL Rushing Yards: 174.80-196.59
It’s a strong guess that Louisville will scored over 30 points versus Kentucky. When that has happened the Cats were able to win just 1 game in 2014 (South Carolina). Louisville on the other hand has lost just 1 game on the season when scoring over 30 points (FSU).
I do expect that Louisville’s passing range will be on the low end (and perhaps even out of the range) we found because of true Freshman Reggie Bonnafon and the play-calling that we’ve seen employed from Petrino & McGee since Reggie took over vs. Boston College. Also coupled with Kentucky’s recent run stopping ineffectiveness, I expect that the Cards will give the Cats an early & often dose of Michael Dyer & Brandon Radcliff throughout the game which I expect UofL to be on the high end (or perhaps even exceed) the range for Louisville on the ground.
The Cats did get a week off, so UK may be tougher early in the 1st half against the run than they have shown in their last 5 games.
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