Kentucky Offense vs. Louisville Defense: Governor’s Cup 2014

Mark BlankenbakerNovember 26, 2014

Kentucky Scoring Offense Evaluation

	Scoring Defense	Kentucky Scored vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Scored of Avg
Ohio	25.2	20	-5.2	79.37%
Florida	20.9	30	9.1	143.54%
Vanderbilt	34.1	17	-17.1	49.85%
South Carolina	30.8	45	14.2	146.10%
UL Monroe	26.6	48	21.4	180.45%
LSU	16.4	3	-13.4	18.29%
Mississippi State	18.4	31	12.6	168.48%
Missouri	20.2	10	-10.2	49.50%
Georgia	20.5	31	10.5	151.22%
Tennessee	24.5	16	-8.5	65.31%
Louisville	18.7	Average	1.340	105.21%

The Cats have scored about the average what teams typically allow in 2014. UK was way under vs. Vanderbilt & LSU, but over performed a great deal versus South Carolina, Monroe, Georgia, and Mississippi State.

Louisville is the 3rd best scoring defensive team that Kentucky has played this season (Mississippi State & LSU) and the Cats had dramatically different results against both of those teams, although they both ended in a loss.

Louisville Scoring Defense Evaluation

	Scoring Offense	Louisville Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Scored of Avg
Miami (FL)	30.5	13	-17.5	42.62%
Virginia	26.4	23	-3.4	87.12%
FIU	23	3	-20	13.04%
Wake Forest	14.3	10	-4.3	69.93%
Syracuse	18	6	-12	33.33%
Clemson	29.6	23	-6.6	77.70%
NC State	29.4	18	-11.4	61.22%
Florida State	35.5	42	6.5	118.31%
Boston College	25.7	19	-6.7	73.93%
Notre Dame	34.7	28	-6.7	80.69%
Kentucky	28.2	Average	-8.210	65.79%

The Cards have been outstanding in disallowing points and have held 9 of 10 FBS schools (FSU) under the usual point production in a given ballgame. UofL limits scoring to 8.2 points less than usual or just 65.79%.

Kentucky is the 5th worst (or 6th best) scoring team that the Cards will play in 2014.

Kentucky Total Offense Evaluation

	Total Defense	Kentucky Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Ohio	401.4	402	0.60	100.15%
Florida	311.5	450	138.50	144.46%
Vanderbilt	414.8	384	-30.80	92.57%
South Carolina	428.4	447	18.60	104.34%
UL Monroe	364.5	352	-12.50	96.57%
LSU	312.9	217	-95.90	69.35%
Mississippi State	400.7	504	103.30	125.78%
Missouri	334.4	260	-74.40	77.75%
Georgia	322.3	353	30.70	109.53%
Tennessee	367.9	262	-105.90	71.22%
Louisville	290.2	Average	-2.78	99.17%

UK, again, really mirrors what defenses typically allow on the season. UK’s worst two performances of the season were against LSU & Tennessee, but the Cats really got up for Florida & Mississippi State. It’s a roller coaster because UK has performed very well on offense at times…but they had enough bad outings to find their way back to the middle.

Louisville will be the best Total Defense team UK has played in 2014.

Louisville Total Defense Evaluation

	Total Offense	Louisvile Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	431.9	244	-187.9	56.49%
Virginia	379.6	285	-94.6	75.08%
FIU	293.2	205	-88.2	69.92%
Wake Forest	207.3	100	-107.3	48.24%
Syracuse	347.5	260	-87.5	74.82%
Clemson	402.7	229	-173.7	56.87%
NC State	397.3	351	-46.3	88.35%
Florida State	441.5	574	132.5	130.01%
Boston College	391.3	332	-59.3	84.85%
Notre Dame	453.3	335	-118.3	73.90%
Kentucky	389.5	Average	-83.06	75.85%

Louisville has held every opponent except one (FSU) under its yearly average yards per game average in 2014. Typically the Cards hold the opponents to 83 (!) yards fewer average, or 75.85%. Louisville has held 4 opponents to 100+ yards or more less than normal (Miami, Wake, Clemson, and Notre Dame).

Kentucky’s offense will be the 4th worst that the Cards have seen in 2014. In the 3 games that UofL played with worst offenses than UK, the Cards held those teams each to under 87 yards or more off their average.

Kentucky Passing Offense Evaluation

	Passing Defense	Kentucky Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Ohio	265.4	170	-95.4	64.05%
Florida	201.1	369	167.9	183.49%
Vanderbilt	229.8	85	-144.8	36.99%
South Carolina	214.9	208	-6.9	96.79%
UL Monroe	194.8	216	21.2	110.88%
LSU	164	146	-18	89.02%
Mississippi State	281.4	401	119.6	142.50%
Missouri	210.5	158	-52.5	75.06%
Georgia	167	139	-28	83.23%
Tennessee	202.3	168	-34.3	83.04%
Louisville	201.7	Average	-7.12	96.51%

Once again, UK does whatever opponents usually allow. The Florida & Miss State were once again the big positive outliers with Ohio & Vanderbilt really being the negative extreme data sets.

Louisville’s passing defense is the 5th best unit Kentucky has played in 2014. Against Louisville the Cats will play against their 6th Top 40 Passing defense this season.

Louisville Passing Defense Evaluation

	Passing Offense	Louisvile Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	247	174	-73	70.45%
Virginia	232.8	171	-61.8	73.45%
FIU	168	117	-51	69.64%
Wake Forest	169.5	122	-47.5	71.98%
Syracuse	194.8	201	6.2	103.18%
Clemson	256.3	157	-99.3	61.26%
NC State	207.8	223	15.2	107.31%
Florida State	314.9	401	86.1	127.34%
Boston College	129.5	166	36.5	128.19%
Notre Dame	298.2	236	-62.2	79.14%
Kentucky	236.2	Average	-25.08	89.19%

UofL allows about 25 yards less through the air than teams usually gain. Louisville has held 6 of 10 FBS opponents to fewer yards through the air than usual. The Cards have played against 4 Top 50 passing offenses in 2014 (Kentucky is not one).

The Cats are the 5th best passing team the Cards will play this season. Of the other 4 passing offenses that UofL has faced all but FSU were severely limited.

Kentucky Rushing Offense Evaluation

	Rushing Defense	Kentucky Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Ohio	136	232	96	170.59%
Florida	110.4	81	-29.4	73.37%
Vanderbilt	185	54	-131	29.19%
South Carolina	213.45	239	25.55	111.97%
UL Monroe	169.73	136	-33.73	80.13%
LSU	148.91	71	-77.91	47.68%
Mississippi State	119.36	103	-16.36	86.29%
Missouri	123.82	102	-21.82	82.38%
Georgia	155.27	214	58.73	137.82%
Tennessee	165.64	94	-71.64	56.75%
Louisville	88.45	Average	-20.158	87.62%

UK has had 3 outstanding rushing performances in 2014, and two of those were well above the average yards allowed by run defenses. The other 7 games……well….UK gains 20 yards fewer than opponents have allowed on the season despite those 3 great games on the ground.

Louisville’s rushing defense is 22 yards better per game than any run defense that Kentucky has played all season.

Louisville Rushing Defense Evaluation

	Rushing Offense	Louisville Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	184.91	70	-114.91	37.86%
Virginia	146.82	114	-32.82	77.65%
FIU	125.17	88	-37.17	70.30%
Wake Forest	37.73	-22	-59.73	-58.31%
Syracuse	152.73	59	-93.73	38.63%
Clemson	146.45	72	-74.45	49.16%
NC State	189.45	128	-61.45	67.56%
Florida State	126.64	173	46.36	136.61%
Boston College	261.82	166	-95.82	63.40%
Notre Dame	155.09	99	-56.09	63.83%
Kentucky	153.36	Average	-57.981	54.67%

UofL’s run D is DOMINANT. Only one team has been able to gain more than average (FSU) but the Cards still limit opponents to nearly 58 yards fewer per game than average.

The Cats will be the 5th best rushing team UofL will have played in 2014.

Summary

Ranges (based on suggested math)

UK Points: 18.55-20.04

UK Total Yardage: 287.42-306.44

UK Passing Yards: 194.58-211.12

UK Rushing Yards: 68.29-95.38

Based on projections, UK’s 18-20 points on Saturday will need the Wildcat defense to play an outstanding game. Louisville did lose twice in 2014 to Virginia & Clemson when the opponent scored 23 points. Just 4 teams all season have been able to break the 20 point barrier against Louisville.

Kentucky’s best bet to move the ball against Louisville is through the air. I don’t think there will be a great deal of room on the ground for Kentucky, but the Cats may elect to test the waters. The health of Patrick Towles will be a big component to the Kentucky offense. UK had a week off and that will help coming into the game, but Kentucky allows just as much pressure as the Cards do and Louisvile is 9th in the country in getting sacks for its defense. Towles will need his mobility to evade some of the rush and to remain healthy.

The Cats are one of the worst 3rd down offenses in the nation. Louisville has a clear advantage on defense in this one, but UK has shown its ability to get up for big games. We’ll see what happens on Saturday.