PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Notre Dame

Mark BlankenbakerFebruary 12, 2016

Location: Purcell Pavilion at Joyce Center (9,149)
Game Time: 4:00, 2-13-2016
Line: Notre Dame -2
Series History: UofL Leads 20-13 (4-7 in South Bend)
Last Time: Notre Dame 71, UofL 59 (3-4-2015 at KFC Yum! Center)
TV: ESPN2 with Sean McDonough & Miles Simon
Louisville Radio: 790 WKRD with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 81, XM 81
Game Officials: Tim Clougherty, Lamont Simpson, Tim Comer

My Prediction

Louisville has struggled this year with teams that can match its roster depth-wise and against teams that get hot from 3-point range. Notre Dame can shoot the lights out, but they can’t match the Cards rotations especially in the backcourt.

The Cards have also struggled at times when Chinanu Onuaku has to deal with high-performing Centers. Zach Auguste is a problem for Nanu but it’s also a huge opportunity for Onuaku. Auguste averages a double double and if Chinanu wants to entertain the NBA Draft this summer he’ll need to play well against players like Auguste, which also means staying on the floor.

Quentin Snider will also have his hands full against Demetrius Jackson and the match-up of Trey Lewis and Steve Vasturia is likely even, but this is where Louisville has a huge advantage: Donovan Mitchell. The Irish don’t have another guard that they can rely on to give Jackson or Vasturia a real rest and both players play 35 minutes per game. Look for Pitino to make Jackson & Vasturia work hard to advance the ball and also on defense in an attempt to wear down the ND backcourt.

Damion Lee & Bonzie Colson is advantage Lee, but Damion is going to be taken to task by Colson on the glass. Colson is a bigger Small Forward and Damion should be able to be effective when he gets Bonzie moving so I expect Damion to mix and match his inside & outside game here. Deng Adel probably gets 7-9 minutes in this one, he and freshman Rex Pflueger are similar in stature & production.

At Power Forward Jaylen Johnson & Ray Spalding give Louisville an advantage in energy and in mixing & matching styles. Ray & Jaylen are very different types of PFs and that’s a great thing for Rick Pitino to have because not only can he play the hot hand but he also has flexibility in the match-up. In this one against a skinny VJ Beachem at 6’8, 200 Jaylen should have a big game with his size advantage. Jaylen should be able to keep Beachem off the glass and also keep an eye toward Colson at Small Forward. But Louisville is going to need to use Ray if the Irish decide to stretch Beachem and utilize his 43.2% 3-point shooting. Mike Brey will probably try to extend Jaylen with Beachem’s shooting and Louisville should try and get Jaylen touches inside. When Spalding is in the game it’s all about defending and killing the passing lanes.

In the end Louisville is a much better defensive team than Notre Dame and the Irish are abysmal at defending the 3-pointer. The depth factor is a huge advantage for the Cards but Notre Dame is as tough of a road environment as any. Additionally Louisville has had some time to absorb its post-season ban, this game against the Irish will signal whether or not the Cards are serious at making a run at the ACC Regular Season Title. I’m picking the Cards here.

Louisville 74, Notre Dame 65

Team Stats

	Louisville	Notre Dame
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	88th	31st
Points Per Game	78.4 (48th)	79.0 (39th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+18.0 (1st)	+8.3 (48th)
Field Goal %	48.1% (21st)	48.8% (12th)
2-point FG%	52.6% (39th)	54.6% (19th)
3-point FG%	36.3% (94th)	37.8% (41st)
Free Throw %	68.9% (200th)	73.2% (60th)
Rebound Rate	56.7% (8th)	52.9% (54th)
Blocks Per Game	5.1 (28th)	4.2 (79th)
Steals Per Game	7.3 (50th)	6.0 (164th)
Assists Per Game	13.4 (156th)	14.2 (102nd)
Turnovers Per Game	12.1 (111th)	9.0 (1st)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.7 (36th)	10.2 (334th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.4 (156th)	15.7 (6th)
Opponent Shooting %	37.8% (5th)	43.8% (178th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	41.7% (13th)	46.1% (76th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	30.7% (22nd)	39.3% (337th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.1 (101th)	2.8 (44th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.6 (93rd)	5.0 (30th)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Demetrius Jackson
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-1, 198, Jr.
Minutes	28.3	35.0
Points	9.7	16.2
Field Goal %	40.3%	47.30%
3-point %	41.7%	34.00%
FT %	72.0%	77.40%
Rebounds	2.4	3.5
Assists	3.6	5
Steals	0.8	1.4
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.3	1.9
Fouls	2.0	2.1

	Trey Lewis	Steve Vasturia
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-5, 211, Jr.
Minutes	28.0	35.6
Points	12.3	12.5
Field Goal %	43.40%	48.00%
3-point %	38.10%	39.80%
FT %	84.80%	83.30%
Rebounds	3.4	3.0
Assists	2.3	3.3
Steals	1.0	0.8
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	1.6
Fouls	1.8	2.2

	Damion Lee	Bonzie Colson
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-5, 226, Soph
Minutes	32.6	26.5
Points	16.7	12.5
Field Goal %	45.8%	55.3%
3-point %	36.2%	33.3%
FT %	86.6%	75.3%
Rebounds	4.0	7.1
Assists	2.0	1.1
Steals	1.5	0.8
Blocks	0.0	1.1
Turnovers	1.7	1.0
Fouls	2.1	2.3

	Jaylen Johnson	VJ Beachem
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 200, Jr.
Minutes	16.8	30.6
Points	5.3	11.9
Field Goal %	47.1%	46.80%
3-point %	22.2%	43.20%
FT %	50.0%	63.00%
Rebounds	3.8	4.0
Assists	0.5	0.9
Steals	0.4	0.8
Blocks	0.4	0.8
Turnovers	0.7	0.8
Fouls	1.9	1.5

	Chinanu Onuaku	Zach Auguste
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-10, 240, Sr.
Minutes	23.1	29.0
Points	9.8	14.1
Field Goal %	62.0%	54.0%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	58.3%	62.3%
Rebounds	8.5	10.0
Assists	1.2	1.3
Steals	0.8	0.8
Blocks	1.9	1.0
Turnovers	2.1	2.3
Fouls	2.9	2.6

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell
	6-3, 210, Fr.
Minutes	20.2
Points	8.1
Field Goal %	46.40%
3-point %	27.30%
FT %	73.60%
Rebounds	3.6
Assists	1.8
Steals	0.8
Blocks	0.1
Turnovers	0.9
Fouls	2.6

	David Levitch
	6-3, 180, Jr.
Minutes	6.7
Points	2.1
Field Goal %	60.00%
3-point %	55.60%
FT %	72.70%
Rebounds	0.7
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.3
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	0.3
Fouls	0.5

	Deng Adel	Rex Pflueger
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-6, 193, Fr.
Minutes	9.9	13.2
Points	3.5	2.8
Field Goal %	42.90%	43.80%
3-point %	33.30%	33.30%
FT %	73.70%	94.70%
Rebounds	1.9	1.6
Assists	0.6	1.1
Steals	0.2	0.6
Blocks	0.1	0.3
Turnovers	1.1	0.1
Fouls	0.9	1.4

	Ray Spalding	Matt Ryan
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-8, 217, Fr.
Minutes	17.3	16.1
Points	5.8	5.6
Field Goal %	56.30%	40.40%
3-point %	0.00%	34.40%
FT %	47.90%	73.70%
Rebounds	4.6	1.7
Assists	0.5	0.7
Steals	1.0	0.4
Blocks	0.7	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	0.2
Fouls	2.3	1.6

	Anas Mahmoud	Austin Torres
	7-0, 200, Soph	6-7, 228, Jr.
Minutes	13.9	4.6
Points	3.6	1.0
Field Goal %	47.50%	52.90%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	39.40%	44.40%
Rebounds	3.2	1
Assists	0.6	0.1
Steals	0.6	0.4
Blocks	1.4	0.2
Turnovers	0.9	0.2
Fouls	1.7	0.9

	Matz Stockman
	7-0, 240, Soph
Minutes	5.6
Points	2.7
Field Goal %	64.30%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	46.70%
Rebounds	1.8
Assists	0.1
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.3
Turnovers	0.4
Fouls	0.9