PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Duke

Mark BlankenbakerFebruary 19, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000)
Game Time: 12:00, 2-20-2016
Line: Louisville -5
Series History: Duke Leads 7-4 (Cards are 1-2 in Louisville vs. Duke)
Last Time: Duke 72, Louisville 65 (2-8-2016 in Durham)
TV: ESPN with Dave O’Brien, Dick Vitale, and Allison Williams
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 84, XM 84
Game Officials: Brian Dorsey, Joe Lindsa, Brian O’Connell

Click Here to Watch Rick Pitino Talk Duke

My Prediction

The Cards stormed back from a big deficit to make it a ballgame in Cameron Indoor Stadium 12 days before Saturday’s match-up. A series of errors and mental mistakes caused the Cards to come up just short of a road win. But this Duke team will be without Guard Matt Jones who did a fantastic job guarding Damion Lee in the 1st meeting. Jones will miss the game with an ankle injury and will still be without Forward Amile Jefferson.

As such the Blue Devils will come to Louisville with just 6 players who average significant minutes leaving Mike Kryzewski with the difficult decision to attempt to play a deep Louisville team with just 6 players OR to go deeper into a very shallow Duke bench and play less experienced players.

In this game the Cards will have the home court and are fresh off a ‘feel good performance’ vs. Syracuse. The last meeting was 3 days after the post-season ban was announced, UofL has had time to reflect and refocus and get back to the business of basketball. Without Matt Jones’ defensive presence Damion Lee probably has a better shooting night, but the depth issue will really play a role….particularly in rebounding.

Also don’t forget that Grayson Allen was charged with a Flagrant 1 foul for tripping Ray Spalding in Durham.

I think Louisville has it going on to win this game. Duke has won 5 games in a row including the last 2 by one point each. The Blue Devils certainly know how to win tight ball games but this will be the first time with even more limited bodies for Coach K and the Cards have their mojo back.

Louisville 76, Duke 68

Team Stats

	Louisville	Duke
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	76th	12th
Points Per Game	77.7 (61st)	83.1 (11th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+17.0 (1st)	+12.1 (17th)
Field Goal %	47.8% (22nd)	47.3% (30th)
2-point FG%	52.3% (50th)	52.5% (42nd)
3-point FG%	36.2% (96th)	39.1% (19th)
Free Throw %	69.3% (188th)	72.5% (78th)
Rebound Rate	56.1% (9th)	51.6% (94th)
Blocks Per Game	5.1 (27th)	4.6 (52nd)
Steals Per Game	7.3 (46th)	6.0 (160th)
Assists Per Game	13.6 (141st)	13.5 (148th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.9 (98th)	9.9 (9th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.3 (52nd)	11.7 (260th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.2 (149th)	16.5 (19th)
Opponent Shooting %	38.1% (7th)	43.7% (165th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	41.8% (10th)	47.6% (128th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	31.3% (33rd)	33.8% (124th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.1 (98th)	3.4 (172nd)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.6 (95th)	4.7 (19th)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Derryck Thornton
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-2, 175, Fr
Minutes	28.8	26.3
Points	9.6	8.0
Field Goal %	39.1%	40.00%
3-point %	39.0%	36.50%
FT %	73.2%	67.30%
Rebounds	2.4	2.2
Assists	3.7	2.7
Steals	0.8	0.8
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.3	1.7
Fouls	2.0	2.2

	Deng Adel	Luke Kennard
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-5, 180, Fr.
Minutes	9.2	24.7
Points	3.1	12.1
Field Goal %	42.90%	44.20%
3-point %	33.30%	33.90%
FT %	73.70%	91.40%
Rebounds	1.8	3.3
Assists	0.5	1.2
Steals	0.2	0.7
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	0.8
Fouls	0.9	1.8

	Damion Lee	Grayson Allen
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-5, 205, Soph
Minutes	33.0	35.5
Points	16.5	20.7
Field Goal %	45.0%	48.4%
3-point %	36.5%	41.7%
FT %	86.0%	84.3%
Rebounds	4.0	4.8
Assists	2.1	3.6
Steals	1.6	1.0
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	1.8
Fouls	2.1	2.6

	Jaylen Johnson	Brandon Ingram
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-9, 190, Fr.
Minutes	17.1	33.3
Points	5.1	17.3
Field Goal %	46.1%	46.60%
3-point %	22.2%	40.90%
FT %	50.0%	68.10%
Rebounds	3.8	6.8
Assists	0.5	1.9
Steals	0.3	1.1
Blocks	0.4	1.5
Turnovers	0.7	1.8
Fouls	1.8	2.2

	Chinanu Onuaku	Marshall Plumlee
	6-10, 230, Soph	7-1, 250, Sr.
Minutes	23.2	30.3
Points	9.7	8.2
Field Goal %	61.9%	67.9%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	59.2%	59.6%
Rebounds	8.6	8.3
Assists	1.3	1.0
Steals	0.8	0.8
Blocks	2.0	1.6
Turnovers	2.1	1.1
Fouls	2.9	2.7

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Chase Jeter
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-10, 195, Fr.
Minutes	20.0	7.0
Points	8.2	1.5
Field Goal %	46.70%	52.20%
3-point %	27.90%	0.00%
FT %	73.60%	50.00%
Rebounds	3.5	1.6
Assists	1.8	0.1
Steals	0.8	0.1
Blocks	0.1	0.3
Turnovers	1.0	0.7
Fouls	2.6	1.8

	Trey Lewis
	6-2, 190, Sr.
Minutes	27.8
Points	12.3
Field Goal %	44.00%
3-point %	38.10%
FT %	85.30%
Rebounds	3.5
Assists	2.3
Steals	1.0
Blocks	0.1
Turnovers	1.8
Fouls	1.7

	David Levitch
	6-3, 180, Jr.
Minutes	6.5
Points	2.1
Field Goal %	62.50%
3-point %	60.00%
FT %	72.70%
Rebounds	0.7
Assists	0.4
Steals	0.3
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	0.3
Fouls	0.6

	Ray Spalding
	6-10, 210, Fr.
Minutes	17.4
Points	5.7
Field Goal %	55.40%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	50.00%
Rebounds	4.5
Assists	0.5
Steals	1.0
Blocks	0.7
Turnovers	1.0
Fouls	2.2

	Matz Stockman
	7-0, 240, Soph
Minutes	6
Points	3.1
Field Goal %	63.90%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	50.00%
Rebounds	1.9
Assists	0.2
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.3
Turnovers	0.4
Fouls	1.0