Let’s get back to stats, shall we?
Last year I started TVT because people were down on Luke early on. I could see he was contributing, just not scoring. As fans, we tend to focus on points. I factor 10 statistical categories that can either benefit or harm the team, and come up with a score (or team value) for each player.
Thus TVT was born.
TVT = True Value to the Team. Add up all the good stats, subtract out all the bad stats, and divide by minutes played. The end result gives you the number of positive contributions per minute a player gives you when he steps on the court. As the season goes on, I will continue with game and season averages. It also does a pretty good job of telling you how a player will do based on the type of matchup we face.
Here is our box score for UNC, sorted most productive per minute to least.
- Smith could have had a higher score if he didn’t miss 13 shots or had 3 To’s compared to 2 assists. Solid outing all around though.
- Behanan and Harrell had strong scores in an almost identical stat line. Hope that continues.
- Hancock in the 3 spot? No turnovers & 2 assists, got to the line a lot, and a few rebounds and a steal. Mr. everything. If he had not missed 7 of his 8 shots, he would have scored higher.
- Jones scored in the 4 spot narrowly behind Luuuuuuuuke. He scored well, but took a lot of shots to get there. 4 rebounds was impressive. 1 assist to 2 TO’s, and ZERO FT’s. That hurt his score more than anything. I wasn’t overly impressed with the refs in this game, so they probably robbed him of a few attempts.
- Blackshear played 17 minutes and had a zero stat line. He was in the negative per minute played for team contributions. This cannot happen. We know this, he knows this. I don’t think this will continue.
- In 10 statistical categories I track, Louisville broke even with UNC at 5-5. Last year, Louisville averaged 7 of 10.
- Louisville had 7% less O-rebounds, and that carried over to the overall deficit. Behanan and Harrell got plenty. They just need help. Gorgui isn’t there to average 9 per game, so we need to gang rebound. Perhaps the reason we were beat on some run outs.
- UNC’s length bothered our shooters, as we saw the worst shooting of the season at 38.8%. Kentucky has length, so if we shoot a lower percentage, we have to get rebounds up. To increase extra shot attempts, and steal shot attempts from UK.
- UNC had 34% more Free Throws. Thanks Refs. It took that many to outscore Louisville at the line, since Louisville shot a blistering 84% from the stripe.
- TVT Raw Score (team score of good (minus) bad stats, and then tallied up) was the lowest since Villanova in the first round of the Big East Tournament last year. That low number carries over to also reveal the lowest per minute average per person.
Discouraging that we made 11 three point baskets, shot 84% from the line, and almost lose in double digits. The guards need to get the bigs involved, and get to the FT line. I don’t mind them carrying the scoring load, it is a strength for sure – just not at the expense of demotivating the rest of the team from lack of involvement.
Rebounding wins ball games. If we can continue hot shooting that the FT line – Rebounds will offset shooting % for either side of the ball. I think that will have to come from our wings, because too many guards crashing the backboard will lead to another Kennedy Meeks outlet pass for an easy score. Wayne cannot have a zero stat line if we are going to contend for another Final Four.
We have just over a month (of terrible competition) to improve on a few thiings before we roll into Rupp. We will need to get fundamentally sound to beat the cats. If UNC is an indicator that length effects our shooting, UK has it. We will need to outpace them in Rebounds, which is unfortunate, they are good at them, and try to get to the line frequently. Getting their guys in foul trouble, and scoring from the FT line.
This Year’s Team Averages
See above, this is the first game of me tracking TVT for 2013/14 season.
Last Year’s Team Averages
See how value has improved, declined or just compare the teams overall TVT to 2012
Look at the amount of people over .40. That is a good depth barometer for production & team depth. That means they are producing a positive stat – offsetting any negative production – about ever 2.5 minutes on the court.
There are things that I can’t track, like “general defensive mayhem from speed”. Something that Ware provides.
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