Matz Stockman, Quentin Snider "Senior Night" Louisville vs. Georgia Tech 3-1-2016 Photo by William Caudill

PREVIEW: “RED OUT” Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

Mark BlankenbakerMarch 1, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (22,000)
Game Time: 8:00, 3-1-2016
Line: Louisville -11.5
Series History: Louisville Leads 17-13 (9-4 in Louisville)
Last Time: Louisville 75, Georgia Tech 71 (1-23-2016 in Louisville)
TV: ACC Network Justin Kutcher, Mike Gminski
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 81, XM 81
Game Officials: Roger Ayers, William Humes, Clarence Armstrong

My Prediction

In January this was a really tough game for Louisville to win in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets played the Cards to a 4-point decision. Marcus Georges-Hunt was outstanding and Nick Jacobs was too much to deal with inside. Vegas says Louisville is an -11.5 point favorite…..that’s probably too high considering how well GT has been playing lately.

Last time out, the Yellow Jackets out rebounded Louisville 41-33 but was one of the few teams this season to foul more than UofL. If Georgia Tech continues to win the glass and commits 3-4 fewer fouls tonight, GT can win this game.

Louisville shot the ball really well collectively in Atlanta and that should continue again. Deng Adel & Ray Spalding both played a combined 10 minutes vs. GT, their games improved considerably since January. Getting Ray & Deng’s length on the floor will not only help out the rebounding margin, but defensively against Marcus Georges-Hunt. But it won’t matter how long a player is if Damion Lee/Trey Lewis don’t stay in front MGH and disallow him from getting into the paint.

Additionally Quentin Snider has also really elevated his offensive game (particularly from 3) which will help a great deal in spreading out the GT defense. The more Q can have Adam Smith chase him around on defense the less of a weapon Smith is from behind the arc (40.8%).

I expect UofL to play well tonight for Senior Night but Georgia Tech is no push over squad. This game isn’t on their floor this time and the crowd for the Cards is going to be relentless which will provide a unique atmosphere. Louisville wins this game.

Louisville 73, Georgia Tech 67

Team Stats

	Louisville	Georgia Tech
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	50th	24th
Points Per Game	76.6 (78th)	74.5 (128th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+15.4 (2nd)	+3.0 (117th)
Field Goal %	47.9% (22nd)	45.0% (107th)
2-point FG%	52.6% (40th)	48.7% (171st)
3-point FG%	36.2% (100th)	35.4% (140th)
Free Throw %	68.6 (223rd)	71.5% (114th)
Rebound Rate	55.4% (16th)	54.9% (21st)
Blocks Per Game	5.0 (28th)	4.3 (67th)
Steals Per Game	7.1 (55th)	4.7 (311st)
Assists Per Game	13.8 (129th)	13.9 (120th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.6 (71st)	10.7 (24th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.2 (54th)	10.1 (336th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.2 (150th)	18.2 (84th)
Opponent Shooting %	38.8% (10th)	44.3% (205th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	42.4% (12th)	49.5% (209th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	32.3% (54th)	32.8% (78th)
Opponent Block Per Game	2.9 (52nd)	2.7 (29th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.5 (80th)	4.4 (5th)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Adam Smith
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-1, 170, Sr.
Minutes	28.5	29.5
Points	9.5	14.4
Field Goal %	40.1%	39.30%
3-point %	39.8%	40.80%
FT %	73.2%	78.50%
Rebounds	2.3	2.4
Assists	3.7	2.0
Steals	0.9	0.4
Blocks	0.0	0.0
Turnovers	1.3	1.1
Fouls	1.9	1.6

	Deng Adel	Marcus Georges-Hunt
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-5, 214, Sr.
Minutes	11.2	32.0
Points	4.1	17.1
Field Goal %	50.00%	47.90%
3-point %	35.70%	36.00%
FT %	69.60%	80.80%
Rebounds	2.2	3.3
Assists	0.6	2.9
Steals	0.2	0.9
Blocks	0.1	0.4
Turnovers	1.1	2.1
Fouls	1.0	2.6

	Damion Lee	Quinton Stephens
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-9, 187, Jr.
Minutes	33.3	18.1
Points	16.6	5.2
Field Goal %	44.9%	39.8%
3-point %	36.9%	36.1%
FT %	83.7%	71.4%
Rebounds	4.0	3.5
Assists	2.0	1.0
Steals	1.6	1.4
Blocks	0.0	0.4
Turnovers	1.7	0.9
Fouls	2.1	1.4

	Jaylen Johnson	Nick Jacobs
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 260, Sr.
Minutes	17.1	22.3
Points	5.1	10.7
Field Goal %	46.4%	49.10%
3-point %	22.2%	0.00%
FT %	53.8%	78.70%
Rebounds	3.6	5.7
Assists	0.4	0.3
Steals	0.3	0.4
Blocks	0.4	0.7
Turnovers	0.6	1.2
Fouls	1.9	1.9

	Chinanu Onuaku	Charles Mitchell
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-8, 269, Sr.
Minutes	24.0	24.7
Points	9.8	10.2
Field Goal %	62.2%	51.0%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	56.9%	57.6%
Rebounds	8.6	9.8
Assists	1.5	0.6
Steals	0.8	0.7
Blocks	2.0	0.4
Turnovers	2.1	1.7
Fouls	2.8	2.5

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Josh Heath
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-2, 172, Jr.
Minutes	19.4	18.5
Points	7.6	2.8
Field Goal %	45.70%	37.10%
3-point %	26.60%	25.00%
FT %	73.60%	82.10%
Rebounds	3.4	1.2
Assists	1.8	3
Steals	0.8	0.6
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	0.9
Fouls	2.6	1.9

	Trey Lewis	Tadric Jackson
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-2, 215, Soph
Minutes	27.4	14.0
Points	11.7	4.8
Field Goal %	43.00%	34.80%
3-point %	36.80%	24.10%
FT %	81.70%	57.10%
Rebounds	3.4	1.2
Assists	2.3	1.3
Steals	1.0	0.4
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.7	0.8
Fouls	1.8	1.4

	David Levitch
	6-3, 180, Jr.
Minutes	7.1
Points	2.5
Field Goal %	65.00%
3-point %	66.70%
FT %	72.70%
Rebounds	0.6
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.3
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	0.3
Fouls	0.5

	Ray Spalding	James White
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-8, 220, Sr.
Minutes	17.5	14.5
Points	5.8	3.7
Field Goal %	56.50%	49.50%
3-point %	50.00%	0.00%
FT %	50.00%	45.00%
Rebounds	4.4	4.4
Assists	0.6	0.4
Steals	1.0	0.3
Blocks	0.7	0.8
Turnovers	1.0	0.6
Fouls	2.2	2.5

	Matz Stockman	Ben Lammers
	7-0, 240, Soph	6-10, 241, Soph
Minutes	6.0	15.0
Points	2.9	3.7
Field Goal %	58.50%	65.70%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	50.00%	55.60%
Rebounds	1.9	4.1
Assists	0.2	0.6
Steals	0.0	0.3
Blocks	0.4	1.4
Turnovers	0.4	0.4
Fouls	1.1	1.9