Location: John Paul Jones Arena (Charlottesville, VA)
Game Time: 8:30, 3-5-2016
Line: Virginia -5.5 (opened at -7)
Series History: Virginia leads 7-4 (3-1 in Charlottesville)
Last Time: Virginia 63, Louisville 47 (Louisville 1-30-2015)
TV: ESPN– Dave O’Brien, Dick Vitale, Allison Williams
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 84, XM 84
Game Officials: Bryan Kersey, Mike Eades, Louis Andrakakos
My Prediction
Last time out vs. Virginia the Cards were still eligible for the post-season. There was a lot of hype leading up to the game, a white out, special uniforms……and UofL got punked on its own floor.
Louisville shot just 32.7% and Virginia was 57.8%. The Cards struggled to get into their offense and rarely rotated the ball. A series of bad shots created by the Pack Line Defense of Tony Bennett and UVA completely took UofL off its game.
Ray Spalding & Deng Adel both were bright spots and scored 12 points apiece (24 of UofL’s 47 points) and no other player managed to get into double digits. Chinanu Onuaku played just 19 minutes. Meanwhile for Virginia Anthony Gill & Malcolm Brogdon were outstanding.
Louisville now enters Saturday night’s match-up against the Cavaliers not eligible for the post-season, on Virginia’s Senior Night, on the road…and it’s the final game of the year. The game follows an emotional Senior Night for the Cards and comes at the end of a really stressful final 5 weeks of the season. Beating Virginia after suffering 16-point loss at home the last time vs. UVA & UofL played seems unlikely. But Rick Pitino has an excellent record in reversing losses suffered earlier in the year.
The Cards can not get frustrated. They can not over dribble. They must rebound. They must play defense for the entire shot clock, and they must defend the 3-point line. Virginia is a relentless team and are fighting for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also want to send their seniors out on the right note…….
UofL is going to need its length and if they can stick to the gameplan (and stay out of 1st half foul trouble) this will be a more competitive game. But I don’t see Louisville winning as Virginia has tons to play for in front of its home crowd and even when the Cards had a full emotional tank they were beaten by double digits at home. It will be better, but not enough.
Virginia 69, Louisville 62
Team Stats
Louisville | Virginia | |
Strength of Schedule (KenPom) | 58th | 6th |
Points Per Game | 75.9 (96th) | 70.8 (211th) |
Avg Scoring Margin | +15.0 (2nd) | +10.7 (20th) |
Field Goal % | 47.5% (25th) | 48.8% (10th) |
2-point FG% | 52.4% (45th) | 52.0% (54th) |
3-point FG% | 35.4% (143rd) | 40.6% (10th) |
Free Throw % | 69.0% (206th) | 76.0% (17th) |
Rebound Rate | 55.1% (18th) | 52.9% (50th) |
Blocks Per Game | 4.9 (32nd) | 3.0 (214th) |
Steals Per Game | 7.1 (55th) | 5.6 (214th) |
Assists Per Game | 13.6 (144th) | 14.6 (80th) |
Turnovers Per Game | 11.6 (74th) | 9.3 (5th) |
Opponent Turnovers Per Game | 14.3 (45th) | 12.1 (216th) |
Team Fouls Per Game | 19.0 (138th) | 16.7 (26th) |
Opponent Shooting % | 38.7% (8th) | 42.1% (89th) |
Opponent 2-point FG% | 42.5% (13th) | 46.4% (79th) |
Opponent 3-point FG% | 31.9% (44th) | 35.3% (208th) |
Opponent Block Per Game | 2.9 (55th) | 2.3 (8th) |
Opponent Steals Per Game | 5.5 (85th) | 5.2 (49th) |
Projected Starters
Quentin Snider | London Perrantes | |
6-1, 180, Soph | 6-2, 192, Jr. | |
Minutes | 28.2 | 32.8 |
Points | 9.7 | 11.3 |
Field Goal % | 40.7% | 45.20% |
3-point % | 40.8% | 50.90% |
FT % | 75.0% | 84.10% |
Rebounds | 2.3 | 3.0 |
Assists | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Steals | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Blocks | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Turnovers | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Fouls | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Deng Adel | Devon Hall | |
6-7, 200, Fr. | 6-5, 209, Soph | |
Minutes | 11.9 | 20.9 |
Points | 4.1 | 4.6 |
Field Goal % | 47.60% | 39.20% |
3-point % | 35.30% | 34.60% |
FT % | 74.10% | 80.80% |
Rebounds | 2.1 | 2.6 |
Assists | 0.6 | 1.8 |
Steals | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Blocks | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Turnovers | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Fouls | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Damion Lee | Malcolm Brogdon | |
6-6, 200, Sr. | 6-5, 215, Sr. | |
Minutes | 33.5 | 33.8 |
Points | 16.2 | 18.5 |
Field Goal % | 43.6% | 47.7% |
3-point % | 35.1% | 42.2% |
FT % | 84.1% | 88.4% |
Rebounds | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Assists | 2.0 | 2.8 |
Steals | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Blocks | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Fouls | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Jaylen Johnson | Isaiah Wilkins | |
6-9, 215, Soph | 6-7, 230, Soph | |
Minutes | 17.4 | 21.5 |
Points | 5.1 | 4.8 |
Field Goal % | 46.6% | 50.90% |
3-point % | 20.0% | 0.00% |
FT % | 53.8% | 65.90% |
Rebounds | 3.6 | 4.1 |
Assists | 0.5 | 1.4 |
Steals | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Blocks | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Turnovers | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Fouls | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Chinanu Onuaku | Anthony Gill | |
6-10, 230, Soph | 6-8, 230, Sr. | |
Minutes | 24.7 | 28.4 |
Points | 10.0 | 13.5 |
Field Goal % | 62.9% | 55.3% |
3-point % | 0.0% | 100.0% |
FT % | 59.3% | 71.7% |
Rebounds | 8.6 | 6.2 |
Assists | 1.6 | 0.6 |
Steals | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Blocks | 2.0 | 0.6 |
Turnovers | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Fouls | 2.9 | 2.4 |
Bench
Donovan Mitchell | Darius Thompson | |
6-3, 210, Fr. | 6-4, 196, Soph | |
Minutes | 19.0 | 19.3 |
Points | 7.3 | 4.6 |
Field Goal % | 45.00% | 51.00% |
3-point % | 25.40% | 30.60% |
FT % | 73.60% | 76.70% |
Rebounds | 3.3 | 1.4 |
Assists | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Steals | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Blocks | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Turnovers | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Fouls | 2.5 | 1.7 |
Trey Lewis | Marial Shayok | |
6-2, 190, Sr. | 6-5, 213, Soph | |
Minutes | 27.7 | 15.0 |
Points | 11.4 | 4 |
Field Goal % | 42.20% | 48.80% |
3-point % | 35.40% | 43.80% |
FT % | 80.00% | 55.60% |
Rebounds | 3.5 | 1.7 |
Assists | 2.3 | 1.2 |
Steals | 1.0 | 0.4 |
Blocks | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Turnovers | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Fouls | 1.8 | 1.4 |
David Levitch | Jarred Reuter | |
6-3, 180, Jr. | 6-7, 243, Fr. | |
Minutes | 7.1 | 5.3 |
Points | 2.5 | 1.8 |
Field Goal % | 65.00% | 45.7% |
3-point % | 66.70% | 0.0% |
FT % | 72.70% | 80.0% |
Rebounds | 0.6 | 1.1 |
Assists | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Steals | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Blocks | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Turnovers | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Fouls | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Ray Spalding | Evan Nolte | |
6-10, 210, Fr. | 6-8, 228, Sr. | |
Minutes | 17.5 | 8.1 |
Points | 5.7 | 1.5 |
Field Goal % | 55.70% | 31.80% |
3-point % | 33.30% | 19.20% |
FT % | 50.00% | 71.40% |
Rebounds | 4.3 | 0.8 |
Assists | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Steals | 0.9 | 0.2 |
Blocks | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Turnovers | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Fouls | 2.1 | 0.8 |
Matz Stockman | Mike Tobey | |
7-0, 240, Soph | 7-0, 260, Sr. | |
Minutes | 5.7 | 15.3 |
Points | 2.7 | 6.7 |
Field Goal % | 56.80% | 57.90% |
3-point % | 0.00% | 28.60% |
FT % | 50.00% | 62.20% |
Rebounds | 1.7 | 3.7 |
Assists | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Steals | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Blocks | 0.4 | 0.6 |
Turnovers | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Fouls | 1.0 | 2.1 |
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