Louisville Basketball has lost 5 of its last 8 and now finds itself at 18-9 on the season, 8-6 in the ACC and squarely on the bubble…… and in a season when it absolutely can not afford to be on the bubble. The NCAA is so mad at North Carolina that they threw the book at Notre Dame, the Cards can not afford to be a 50/50 proposition to the NCAA committee. If Louisville is a ‘bubble team’ we’ll be reading about UofL being one of the “First Four Out” of the NCAA Tournament field.

Right now Ken Pomeroy’s ratings have UofL at #36. Generous. RPI? #51. Jerry Palm has Louisville as a “First Four Out”. Joe Lunardi has the Cards trending down and a #10 seed. BracketMatrix.com has the Cards as the 1st of the “First Four Out” after evaluating 77 bracket predictions.  Of the 76 predictions that have Louisville IN the tournament only one projection (BracketResearch.com) has Louisville as high as a 7 seed and several have the Cards as low as a 12 OR fully out of the tournament all together.

Bottom line.  Louisville needs wins.  And they need more than one.  The bad news is that the Cards have only one home game left for the season.  And it’s VIRGINIA.  The Cards do have 4 HOME LOSSES on the season.  The last time UofL lost 5+ home games in a season? 2000-2001, Denny Crum’s final season at UofL.  So UofL is going to have to try to beat Mike Krzyzewski with the most talented roster in the nation during a 9:00 p.m. game at Cameron Indoor, beat Buzz Williams & the Hokies on the road, OR beat the #1 team in the country (Virginia and Tony Bennett) at home who Louisville has just 1 win against since joining the ACC, OR beat a red hot NC State coached by a former UofL assistant Kevin Keatts on the road in Raleigh for the Wolfpack’s Senior Night.  Doesn’t look good does it?

The Cards are in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament after missing the 2016 NCAA Tournament due to self-imposing a post-season ban.  Their play of late has the Cards dangerously on the brink of missing the NCAA Tournament due to a self-imposing of their own in 2018. Prior to that the Cards haven’t missed the NCAA tournament due to poor play since the 2005-06 season and haven’t really been on the bubble since the 2009-10 campaign.

To win some games, Louisville must begin playing well.  They could start by looking at its senior center Anas Mahmoud who seemed indifferent to effort on Saturday vs. North Carolina often appearing to play ‘safety’ on offense and didn’t enter the arc (at 7’1) until extremely late on offensive possessions.  North Carolina shot UofL out of its zone to start the game, and the Tar Heels were able to get into the lane repeatedly once the Cards switched to man. Quentin Snider was HOT outside but couldn’t buy a two.  David Padgett must try to find the hot hand between Darius Perry, VJ King, Deng Adel, Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton & Malik Williams.  The Cards had been sharing the ball well, but only got 9 assists vs. the Tar Heels, it may be a good idea for UofL to play 2 point guards at all times and just find the hot wing and ride that individual.

Right now, there is very little season left.  But they are still well-positioned for the ACC Tournament if they can split their next 4.  Dropping the next 4 would be nearly disastrous expect for the fact that the Cards may be able to win games if they play on Tuesday in Brooklyn…. but it wouldn’t do a lot for the NCAA Tournament resume.  David Padgett & this program have been competitive this season despite a lot of turmoil…. but it’s time to finish.  Will they?

Season Record Home Losses NCAA Seed Post-Season Result
2017-18 18-9 (ongoing) 4 (UVA left) ?  ?
2016-17 25-9 1 2 NCAA 2nd Round
2015-16 23-8 1 Self Ban Self Ban
2014-15 27-9 4 4 Elite 8
2013-14 31-6 2 4 Sweet 16
2012-13 35-5 1 1 NCAA Champion
2011-12 30-10 4 4 Final Four
2010-11 25-10 2 4 NCAA 1st round
2009-10 20-13 4 9 NCAA 1st round
2008-09 31-6 2 1 Elite 8
2007-08 27-9 2 3 Elite 8
2006-07 24-10 4 6 NCAA 1st round
2005-06 21-13 3 NIT NIT Semis
2004-05 33-5 2 4 Final Four
2003-04 20-10 2 7 NCAA 1st round
2002-03 25-7 2 4 NCAA 2nd Round
2001-02 19-13 2 NIT NIT 2nd Round
2000-01 12-19 9 No Post-Season No Post-Season
1999-00 19-12 2 7 NCAA 1st round
1998-99 19-11 3 7 NCAA 1st round
1997-98 12-20 8 No Post-Season No Post-Season
1996-97 26-9 3 6 Elite 8
1995-96 22-12 4 6 Sweet 16
1994-95 19-14 3 11 NCAA 1st round
1993-94 28-6 1 3 Sweet 16
1992-93 22-9 3 4 Sweet 16
1991-92 19-11 4 8 NCAA 2nd Round
1990-91 14-16 6 No Post-Season No Post-Season
1989-90 27-8 2 4 NCAA 2nd Round
1988-89 24-9 4 4 Sweet 16
1987-88 24-11 2 5 Sweet 16
1986-87 18-14 5 Declined NIT No Post-Season
1985-86 32-7 2 2 NCAA Champion
1984-85 19-18 5 NIT NIT Semis
1983-84 24-11 2 5 Sweet 16
1982-83 32-4 1 1 Final Four
1981-82 23-10 2 3 Final Four
1980-81 21-9 2 4 NCAA 2nd Round
1979-80 33-3 0 2 NCAA Champion
1978-79 24-8 1 3 Sweet 16
1977-78 23-7 2 2 Sweet 16
1976-77 21-7 1 NCAA 1st round
1975-76 20-8 4 NIT NIT 1st Round
1974-75 28-3 0 Final Four
1973-74 21-7 2 Sweet 16
1972-73 23-7 1 NIT 2nd Round
1971-72 26-5 1 Final Four
*NCAA Seeds Not Used Prior to 1978 Tournament
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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