PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Pitt

Mark BlankenbakerFebruary 24, 2016

Location: Petersen Events Center (12,508)
Game Time: 8:00, 2-24-2016
Line: Louisville -1.5
Series History: Louisville Leads 11-5 (UofL leads 4-1 in Pittsburgh)
Last Time: Louisville 59, Pitt 41 (1-14-2016 in Louisville)
TV: ACC Network Mike Gleason, Cory Alexander
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 132, XM 195
Game Officials: Jamie Luckie, Les Jones, Michael Stephens

My Prediction

Last time out the Cards dominated the Pitt Panthers with defense. It was the 1st outstanding defensive performance of the season. Chinanu Onuaku & Damion Lee carried Louisville offensively and held point guard James Robinson to just a single point. The one player for Pitt who stood out was PF Michael Young who had a big day against Jaylen Johnson & Ray Spalding.

Things should go better for Pitt in the Petersen Events Center. The Panthers have also won two in a row (Wake & Syracuse) after losing 3 in a row (Virginia, Miami, North Carolina), but I’m not sure it will be good enough. There is a slight concern about the availability of Ray Spalding (groin) as the Cards will already be without Anas Mahmoud & Mangok Mathiang. If Spalding can’t go, Louisville will be extra sensitive to foul trouble of Chinanu Onuaku, but may be able to play Deng Adel down in the 4 spot. Adel is fresh off a fabulous performance vs. Duke.

In the end, I see the Cards pulling it off again in one of the ACC’s most difficult environments.

Louisville 65, Pitt 59

Team Stats

	Louisville	Pittsburgh
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	73rd	66th
Points Per Game	77.4 (63rd)	78.0 (53rd)
Avg Scoring Margin	+16.6 (1st)	+9.4 (36th)
Field Goal %	47.8% (24th)	46.4% (50th)
2-point FG%	52.5% (46th)	50.6% (101st)
3-point FG%	36.2% (101st)	36.9% (71st)
Free Throw %	68.6% (219th)	76.6% (10th)
Rebound Rate	56.0% (9th)	55.7% (12th)
Blocks Per Game	5.2 (22nd)	3.9 (105th)
Steals Per Game	7.3 (46th)	5.0 (287th)
Assists Per Game	13.7 (130th)	17.8 (7th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.9 (96th)	11.6 (70th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.3 (52nd)	11.6 (264th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.2 (149th)	17.4 (40th)
Opponent Shooting %	38.3% (7th)	43.8% (172nd)
Opponent 2-point FG%	41.9% (11th)	48.3% (150th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	31.8% (50th)	35.1% (196th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.0 (76th)	3.3 (144th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.6 (91st)	5.8 (123rd)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	James Robinson
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-3, 198, Sr.
Minutes	28.8	30.7
Points	9.6	10.2
Field Goal %	39.1%	38.00%
3-point %	39.0%	34.40%
FT %	73.2%	76.10%
Rebounds	2.4	3.0
Assists	3.7	5.3
Steals	0.8	1.2
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.3	1.2
Fouls	2.0	1.9

	Deng Adel	Chris Jones
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-6, 213, Soph
Minutes	9.2	18.1
Points	3.1	6.4
Field Goal %	42.90%	43.10%
3-point %	33.30%	31.30%
FT %	73.70%	70.80%
Rebounds	1.8	2.1
Assists	0.5	1.7
Steals	0.2	0.5
Blocks	0.1	0.3
Turnovers	1.0	1.0
Fouls	0.9	1.7

	Damion Lee	Jamel Artis
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-7, 220, Jr.
Minutes	33.0	28.8
Points	16.5	15.1
Field Goal %	45.0%	49.5%
3-point %	36.5%	36.9%
FT %	86.0%	77.4%
Rebounds	4.0	4.9
Assists	2.1	3.1
Steals	1.6	0.4
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.7	2.4
Fouls	2.1	1.9

	Jaylen Johnson	Michael Young
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-9, 235, Jr.
Minutes	17.1	29.2
Points	5.1	16.3
Field Goal %	46.1%	53.60%
3-point %	22.2%	37.50%
FT %	50.0%	80.10%
Rebounds	3.8	7.0
Assists	0.5	2.7
Steals	0.3	0.3
Blocks	0.4	0.5
Turnovers	0.7	2.5
Fouls	1.8	1.5

	Chinanu Onuaku	Rafael Maia
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-9, 245, Sr.
Minutes	23.2	13.0
Points	9.7	2.3
Field Goal %	61.9%	44.9%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	59.2%	58.6%
Rebounds	8.6	4.0
Assists	1.3	0.6
Steals	0.8	0.5
Blocks	2.0	0.2
Turnovers	2.1	0.5
Fouls	2.9	1.9

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Sterling Smith
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-4, 185, Sr.
Minutes	20.0	20.3
Points	8.2	5.6
Field Goal %	46.70%	38.10%
3-point %	27.90%	42.90%
FT %	73.60%	92.30%
Rebounds	3.5	3.6
Assists	1.8	1.3
Steals	0.8	0.4
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.0	0.7
Fouls	2.6	1

	Trey Lewis	Cameron Johnson
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-7, 185, Fr.
Minutes	27.8	10.0
Points	12.3	4.3
Field Goal %	44.00%	40.20%
3-point %	38.10%	41.40%
FT %	85.30%	83.30%
Rebounds	3.5	1.5
Assists	2.3	0.4
Steals	1.0	0.3
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.8	0.3
Fouls	1.7	1.0

	David Levitch	Sheldon Jeter
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-8, 225, Jr.
Minutes	6.5	18.1
Points	2.1	8.2
Field Goal %	62.50%	53.2%
3-point %	60.00%	17.6%
FT %	72.70%	84.4%
Rebounds	0.7	4.9
Assists	0.4	0.8
Steals	0.3	0.7
Blocks	0.0	0.9
Turnovers	0.3	0.8
Fouls	0.6	2.1

	Ray Spalding	Ryan Luther
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-9, 215, Soph.
Minutes	17.4	12.5
Points	5.7	4.4
Field Goal %	55.40%	59.20%
3-point %	0.00%	36.40%
FT %	50.00%	64.30%
Rebounds	4.5	3.0
Assists	0.5	0.4
Steals	1.0	0.4
Blocks	0.7	0.4
Turnovers	1.0	0.7
Fouls	2.2	1.8

	Matz Stockman	Alonzo Nelson-Ododa
	7-0, 240, Soph	6-9, 235, Sr.
Minutes	6.0	9.2
Points	3.1	1.6
Field Goal %	63.90%	47.20%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	50.00%	40.00%
Rebounds	1.9	1.8
Assists	0.2	0.1
Steals	0.0	0.0
Blocks	0.3	0.9
Turnovers	0.4	0.4
Fouls	1.0	1.4