Yards Rank
FSU Rushing Offense 125.86 104th
UofL Rushing Defense 68.75 1st

Florida State isn’t exactly known for its strong running game.  The Noles in its 6 FBS games in 2014 have rushed for just 125.86 yards per game and have only beaten the average yards allowed of its opponents once this season.  Despite that FSU has been over 160 yards 3 times on the ground.

The Seminoles on average gain 28 yards less than what opponents have allowed on the year or just 74.33% of what opposing defenses are allowing on the season. In fact, the only time FSU exceeded the average yards allowed on the ground was against Syracuse a few weeks ago.  Every other game and Florida State has played below the average of its competition.

Rushing Defense Florida State Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Oklahoma St 142 106 -36 74.65%
Clemson 101.38 13 -88.38 12.82%
NC State 187.75 166 -21.75 88.42%
Wake Forest 178.5 171 -7.5 95.80%
Syracuse 131.75 165 33.25 125.24%
Notre Dame 101.86 50 -51.86 49.09%
Average -28.71 74.33%

Louisville on the other hand is allowing 68.75 yards per game, and have allowed opponents over 100 yards just twice in 7 FBS games.  The final results are skewed a great deal by the negative rushing total that Wake Forest allowed but Louisville has allowed ZERO opponents to meet or exceed its season average thus far in 2014.

The Cards are allowing 71 yards LESS than what opponents typically gain or just 39% of opponents average.  The Cardinal Rushing Defense has been outstanding in 2014.

Rushing Offense Louisville Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 187.38 70 -117.38 37.36%
Virginia 170.13 114 -56.13 67.01%
FIU 113.63 88 -25.63 77.44%
Wake Forest 34.5 -22 -56.5 -63.77%
Syracuse 179 59 -120 32.96%
Clemson 140.75 72 -68.75 51.15%
NC State 180.75 128 -52.75 70.82%
Average -71.02 39.00%

FSU’s Running Back situation is in flux without Mario Penders and the status of Karlos Williams who is ‘under review’ for battery to his mother’s child and also wanted in questioning of an armed robbery over the summer.   Jameis Winston is the biggest historical threat to do damage on the ground against the Cardinal Defense. But Florida State recruits nationally and it’s expected that FSU would have talented backs…..they just haven’t showcased that this season.

Based on the math available, the range for FSU to gain on the ground is 40-51 yards on Thursday night.  That figure probably is too low for what we’ll see, even if Williams and Penders do not play because of the style that Florida State will employ and the threat to run from Winston.  But we’ll see if the Noles can buck the trend.

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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