Comparing Donovan Mitchell to Terry Rozier Statistically

Mark BlankenbakerFebruary 3, 2017

The University of Louisville coaches have been showing Cardinal sophomore Donovan Mitchell tape of Terry Rozier. The comparisons, however, started much earlier. After last season this website published a direct comparison of production of both Terry & Donovan’s freshman years: READ IT HERE.

Donovan & Terry are both Shooting Guards with similar size (Donovan is slightly bigger). Both players do the intangible work, playing defense, getting rebounds, creating steals. Mitchell has recently been moving up draft boards and Rozier was drafted #16 overall in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Boston Celtics.

Let’s look at the numbers to compare:

Donovan Mitchell & Terry Rozier’s Stats Per Game

Total	Donovan Mitchell (2015-16)	Terry Rozier (2013-14)	Donovan Mitchell 2016-17	Terry Rozier 2014-15
Games	31	37	22	36
Minutes	19.1	18.9	30.3	35.0
FG	2.7	2.5	5.0	5.9
FGA	6.1	6.3	12.4	14.5
FG%	44.20%	40.1%	40.30%	41.10%
2P	2.1	1.5	2.7	4.6
2PA	3.8	3.6	6.1	10.1
2P%	55.90%	42.2%	43.70%	45.60%
3P	0.6	1.0	2.3	1.3
3PA	2.3	2.6	6.3	4.4
3P%	25.00%	37.1%	37.00%	30.60%
FT	1.4	1.0	2.5	3.9
FTA	1.8	1.4	3.1	4.9
FT%	75.40%	71.2%	79.40%	79.00%
Rebs	3.4	3.1	5.0	5.6
Ast	1.7	1.8	2.6	3.0
Stl	0.8	1.0	2.0	2.0
Blocks	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.2
PFs	2.5	1.5	2.2	1.7
Points	7.4	7.0	14.8	17.1

Donovan Mitchell & Terry Rozier’s Freshman Stats Per 40 Minutes

Per 40 Minutes	Donovan Mitchell	Terry Rozier (2013-14)	Donovan Mitchell 2016-17	Terry Rozier 2014-15
FG	5.7	5.3	6.6	6.8
FGA	12.9	13.3	16.4	16.5
FG%	44.20%	40.10%	40.30%	41.1
2P	4.5	3.3	3.5	5.3
2PA	8.0	7.7	8.1	11.6
2P%	55.90%	42.20%	43.70%	45.60%
3P	1.2	2.1	3.1	1.5
3PA	4.9	5.6	8.3	5
3P%	25.00%	37.10%	37.00%	30.60%
FT	2.9	2.1	3.2	4.4
FTA	3.9	3	4.1	5.6
FT%	75.40%	71.20%	79.40%	79.40%
Rebs	7	6.5	6.5	6.3
Ast	3.5	3.8	3.4	3.4
Stl	1.7	2.2	2.7	2.3
Blocks	0.2	0.1	0.7	0.2
PFs	5.3	3.1	2.9	2
Points	15.5	14.8	19.5	19.5

When comparing Terry & Donovan as freshman the stats are extremely similar. Donovan was a better shooter and slightly better rebounder. Mitchell even went to the Free Throw line more often than Rozier did as a freshman while they put together similar numbers in assists & steals, but Rozier was clearly a better freshman defender. Even their 40 minute production was similar in Year 1 .

However, the Year 2 comparison is where the two players start to draw apart. Terry Rozier DRAMATICALLY improved his ability to get into the lane & also rose his Free Throw Percentage & Free Throw Frequency. Donovan also has increased his FT Shooting %, but his rate has really risen…..INSTEAD Donovan Mitchell has made gains with his jump shoot, particularly from beyond the arc increasing his 3 point attempts, 3 point makes and 3 point percentage, Rozier actually took less from 3, made less from 3 and shot a lower percentage. It is discouraging to see Mitchell’s 2-point % fall nearly 12%, but the sophomore guard is also getting much fewer dunks than he did a year ago. So HOW Rozier & Mitchell are scoring in Year 2 is much different than how similar they were as Freshman. Donovan Mitchell is a bigger player than Rozier (1 inch and about 10 pounds), and Donovan certainly has the ability to get into the lane.

Both players continue to rebound & dish assists at similar rates, while Donovan Mitchell’s defensive improvement JUMPS off the page. Mitchell’s steals have risen dramatically from Year 1 to Year 2 and his ability to create blocks from the 2 guard position have also made significant gains. However, the biggest improvement is Donovan dropping his Player Fouls from 5.3 per 40 minutes to 2.9 per 40 minutes. This is a direct result of the weight loss that Rick Pitino asked Donovan to make from his freshman to sophomore season as are a lot of Mitchell’s other improvements…..but certainly the impact of that choice has been seen on the defensive end.

It’s also important to note that Rozier was a Prep School player, so his 1st year in college was his 2nd after high school, while Mitchell came to UofL in the traditional way.