Bovada (5 Dimes) recently issued their over/under for the upcoming football season. As we begin the preseason breakdowns of teams, here is an early look at the local FBS teams around Kentuckiana and how our models stack up to the Vegas gurus.

For the preseason, 5 separate models are used to determine wins. PYTH: This takes the Expected points scored versus expected points allowed to estimate the win % of a given team. MOJO: This takes the offensive and defensive efficiencies of team and determines their win percentage. EFF: This is similar to MOJO, but takes the consistency and efficiency of teams to determine win percentage. AGG: A simulation of all teams playing all teams on a home, away, and neutral basis. HTH: This is where the teams play out their respective schedules in a simulation.

The picks and the over/under from Vegas will give a good feel for where they think each team is trending.

Category Louisville Kentucky Western KY Indiana
no. of Wins 7.5 6 7.5 6
prob. of over .49 .545 .524 .42
prob. of under .592 .545 .565 .643
trend No. wins 6.5 6 6.5 5 Models

Model Louisville Kentucky Western KY Indiana
Pyth 8.4 6.2 7.8 5.7
MOJO 8.8 4.4 7.9 3.9
EFF 8.2 6.3 7.6 5.9
AGG 9.5 4.7 5.3 4
HTH 9 3 9 4
Average 8.78 4.92 7.52 4.7
Our THoughts* Over Under Over Under

*This is not a gambling site and should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Quick Thoughts

Louisville – The Cards are a bit undervalued due to the unknowns at QB, O-Line, and replacing 10 NFL draft picks. While 9 wins is the most probable, it is possible to get to 10 wins with Clemson at home. The Cards will have to watch out for an improved Houston team in week 2, and road games at NC State and Pittsburgh.

Kentucky – Kentucky will be improved, but are they keeping pace with the rest of the SEC? OOC games should get them 3 wins and a 4th against Vanderbilt; bowl eligibility will be their goal and it is possible their final game could determine their fate and whether or not the heat gets turned up on Coach Mark Stoops.

Western KY – Coach Jeff Brohm’s WKU team has the top returning QB in the country and a schedule that if they are successful, could have them representing the “Other 5” in a New Year’s Bowl. Two SEC teams and a Big 10 team await out of conference. Vanderbilt and Indiana are winnable games. In conference, they get Louisiana Tech and Marshall at home.

Indiana – Coach Kevin Wilson has put out the charge to make it to a bowl this year. While the Big 10 is our weakest ranked P5 conference, the Hoosiers play in its toughest division. With Ohio State, Michigan State, Rutgers, and a likely improved Michigan team on the slate, 6 wins becomes difficult to foresee at this point.

More conference breakdowns at

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Greg Hydes

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