PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech

Mark BlankenbakerJanuary 27, 2016

Location: Cassell Coliseum (Blacksburg, VA)
Game Time: 8:00, 1-27-2016
Line: Louisville -8
Series History: Louisville leads 29-8 (13-3 in Blacksburg)
Last Time: Louisville 78, Virginia Tech 63 (Louisville 2-13-2015)
TV: WAVE TV (ACC Network) – Tom Werme, Dan Bonner
Louisville Radio: 790 WKRD with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 108, XM 94
Game Officials: Brian Dorsey, Jerry Heater, Michael Roberts

Black and pink unis for @VT_MBBall #uniswag pic.twitter.com/KdpSAbtnAx

— Uniswag (@Uniformswag) January 27, 2016

PREDICTION

Louisville has built its program feasting on programs like Virginia Tech. Louisville is 29-8 all-time vs. the Hokies, but this is a new era with Buzz Williams at the helm in Blacksburg in his 2nd season. ESPECIALLY IN BLACKSBURG. VT lost to 75-70 on Sunday to North Carolina and also have wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Virginia at home. The Hokies are much improved so far in the 2nd half of the season than they were in the 1st half.

Louisville is more efficient from the field than Virginia Tech, but Justin Bibbs is a major weapon to watch from beyond the arc. The Cards have been vulnerable from deep in their losses this season and if Virginia Tech is going to beat Louisville it’ll need to get hot from outside. Bibbs is a likely culprit, Zach Leday would be the darkhorse candidate.

Virginia Tech’s biggest disadvantage is probably rebounding the basketball. Louisville has more size and more depth in the post to go along with the fact that the Cards are more disruptive defensively than VT.

But the thing about Buzz Williams and his teams is that they never quit. Buzz’s teams have routinely been a problem even down 20 and Williams and Pitino have often had thrilling match-ups dating back to 2008 when Williams was at Marquette, including the 2011 thriller known as “Miracle on Main” (You can watch an early edition of CrumsRevenge of that incredible comeback here).

In this game, Louisville MUST get out early and continue to play great defense. Winning on the road is about taking the crowd out of the game. Damion Lee & Trey Lewis both seemed to break out of their shooting ‘slump’ and the Cards had a fantastic performance from Anas Mahmoud. UofL has a significant size & depth advantage in this game, but VT is likely going to try and pressure the ball to force some mistakes. Quentin Snider & Chinanu Onuaku both need to have a great game passing the ball, and Lee & Lewis must guard the 3-point line aggressively. They will.

Louisville 74, Virginia Tech 63

Team Stats

	Louisville	Virginia Tech
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	170th	145th
Points Per Game	80.4 (33rd)	76.7 (88th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+21.6 (1st)	+4.6 (106th)
Field Goal %	49.0% (12th)	44.9% (102nd)
2-point FG%	54.3% (25th)	48.7 (157th)
3-point FG%	35.1% (152nd)	34.6% (169th)
Free Throw %	68.1% (231st)	67.6% (242nd)
Rebound Rate	57.7% (5th)	50.1% (163rd)
Blocks Per Game	5.2 (26th)	3.8 (120th)
Steals Per Game	7.7 (37th)	5.3 (254th)
Assists Per Game	13.4 (163rd)	12.4 (220th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.5 (53rd)	12.8 (161st)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.7 (44th)	13.6 (97th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.4 (159th)	18.9 (127th)
Opponent Shooting %	36.4% (1st)	42.4% (117th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	39.6% (2nd)	48.0% (152nd)
Opponent 3-point FG%	30.6% (23rd)	32.4% (77th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.2 (125th)	5.2 (344th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.5 (77th)	5.6 (91st)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	Seth Allen
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-1, 195, Jr.
Minutes	27.6	27.8
Points	10.1	13.5
Field Goal %	43.5%	36.00%
3-point %	43.1%	25.50%
FT %	68.4%	74.10%
Rebounds	2.3	3.2
Assists	3.6	2.7
Steals	0.9	0.8
Blocks	0.0	0.3
Turnovers	1.3	3.0
Fouls	2.0	2.0

	Trey Lewis	Jalen Hudson
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-5, 195, Soph.
Minutes	28.1	20.0
Points	12.2	7.5
Field Goal %	43.80%	39.20%
3-point %	37.90%	30.00%
FT %	82.20%	60.30%
Rebounds	3.6	2.0
Assists	2.6	0.7
Steals	0.9	0.7
Blocks	0.2	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	1.4
Fouls	1.8	1.8

	Damion Lee	Justin Bibbs
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-5, 220, Soph.
Minutes	31.8	30.8
Points	16.6	12.2
Field Goal %	45.9%	51.8%
3-point %	34.6%	51.7%
FT %	86.4%	68.6%
Rebounds	3.8	2.5
Assists	1.7	1.0
Steals	1.7	0.3
Blocks	0.1	0.0
Turnovers	1.4	0.8
Fouls	1.9	1.5

	Jaylen Johnson	Shane Henry
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 190, Sr.
Minutes	16.4	9.6
Points	5.5	2.5
Field Goal %	49.0%	54.30%
3-point %	12.5%	0.00%
FT %	45.0%	31.30%
Rebounds	3.7	2.6
Assists	0.4	0.1
Steals	0.3	0.2
Blocks	0.3	0.4
Turnovers	0.6	0.5
Fouls	1.9	1.6

	Chinanu Onuaku	Zach Leday
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-7, 235, Jr.
Minutes	23.6	30.3
Points	10.6	16.0
Field Goal %	61.0%	47.9%
3-point %	0.0%	46.7%
FT %	58.5%	78.0%
Rebounds	9.2	8.4
Assists	1.1	1.4
Steals	0.8	0.7
Blocks	2.0	1.5
Turnovers	1.9	1.7
Fouls	2.7	3.0

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Justin Robinson
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-1, 180, Fr.
Minutes	20.5	21.3
Points	8.0	6.4
Field Goal %	45.00%	38.50%
3-point %	23.30%	26.90%
FT %	79.10%	68.70%
Rebounds	4.0	1.9
Assists	1.8	3
Steals	0.9	0.6
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	0.8	1.6
Fouls	2.7	1.8

	David Levitch	Devin Wilson
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-4, 190, Jr.
Minutes	6.8	22.3
Points	2.0	2.6
Field Goal %	57.10%	39.40%
3-point %	50.00%	22.20%
FT %	72.70%	64.00%
Rebounds	0.7	1.6
Assists	0.4	2.4
Steals	0.3	0.9
Blocks	0.0	0.0
Turnovers	0.3	1.0
Fouls	0.6	1.8

	Deng Adel
	6-7, 200, Fr.
Minutes	8.0
Points	2.3
Field Goal %	30.40%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	78.60%
Rebounds	1.5
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.1
Blocks	0.1
Turnovers	1.1
Fouls	0.8

	Ray Spalding	Kerry Blackshear, Jr.
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-10, 240, Fr.
Minutes	16.6	19.9
Points	5.5	7.3
Field Goal %	61.60%	53.80%
3-point %	0.00%	20.00%
FT %	41.20%	57.10%
Rebounds	4.4	5.0
Assists	0.6	0.4
Steals	0.9	0.6
Blocks	0.8	0.4
Turnovers	1.0	1.1
Fouls	2.1	3.0

	Matz Stockman	Satchel Pierce
	7-0, 240, Soph	7-0, 255, Soph
Minutes	6.2	7.1
Points	3.1	2.2
Field Goal %	62.50%	66.70%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	53.80%	87.50%
Rebounds	2.2	1.6
Assists	0.2	0.1
Steals	0.0	0.1
Blocks	0.2	0.2
Turnovers	0.5	0.5
Fouls	1.1	1.4

	Anas Mahmoud
	7-0, 200, Soph
Minutes	12.2
Points	3.6
Field Goal %	54.80%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	42.90%
Rebounds	3.2
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.6
Blocks	1.1
Turnovers	0.9
Fouls	1.5