PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Virginia

Mark BlankenbakerJanuary 29, 2016

Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, KY)
Game Time: 1:00, 1-30-2016
Line: Louisville -6
Series History: Virginia leads 4-6 (3-3 in Louisville)
Last Time: Louisville 59, Virginia 57 (Louisville 3-7-2015)
TV: CBS– Kevin Harlan, Bill Raftery
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 134, XM 194
ESPN Radio: Adam Amin with Bob Valvano
Game Officials: Brian O’Connell, Tim Clougherty, Les Jones

*NOTE* The Game is WHITE OUT, Fans Are Encouraged to Wear WHITE

Louisville will wear special @adidashoops White Ice uniforms for Saturday’s 1 p.m. White Out game vs Virginia #L1C4 pic.twitter.com/ZIUpLmDvcA

— Kenny Klein (@KKcards) January 29, 2016

My Prediction

Virginia is the #11 team in the country. Louisville is #16. The Game is a WHITEOUT. The KFC Yum! Center is going to be ROCKING. We’ve now reached the point in the basketball season where fans start to build their fever pitch to March and every small facet of each game begins to get analyzed. Virginia’s Pack Line Defense (CardChronicle’s Mike Rutherford does a great job of explaining this defense here) caused the Cards all kinds of problems last year in both match-ups. This year the Pack Line hasn’t been AS effective for the Cavs, but the concept does take time to adjust to for an offense. Additionally Virginia takes a deliberate approach to offense.

Bottom line, Louisville can’t become impatient offensively and they must maintain defensive integrity throughout a possession…..and MUST REBOUND THE BALL. Virginia will make teams play defense for minutes at a time if they grab offensive boards, which turns into quick possessions for undisciplined teams.

Quentin Snider & Damion Lee will have their hands full when dealing with London Perrantes & Malcolm Brogdon respectively. Also, UVA is one of the rare teams that can match-up with the Cards depth-wise both in the back court & front court. Louisville has been able to win wars of attrition so far in 2015-16, but they can’t do that vs. Virginia. UofL will have to outplay the Cavaliers.

Perrantes, Brogdon, and Devon Hall can all be lethal from 3-point range. Even Center Mike Tobey will step out and take one if left unguarded. We always talk about if Louisville is going to get beat a team is going to have to hit well from outside….and Virginia can do that.

For Louisville they need to hit shots and remain patient on both sides of the floor. UVA doesn’t force a lot of turnovers so the key will be eliminating the unforced variety. Also, Virginia is an excellent Free Throw shooting team….Louisville needs to eliminate the fouls and keep UVA away from the charity stripe. It’s not just about keep Chinanu Onuaku on the floor….but the Cards should have a steep advantage when Nanu is in the game.

A Power Forward is going to need to step up against Anthony Gill who is a major weapon for Tony Bennett. Jaylen Johnson was terrific vs. Virginia Tech and Anas Mahmoud was sublime vs. Georgia Tech. Maybe it’s time that Ray Spalding got in on the action. No matter who it is or if a committee is necessary Anthony Gill is a problem that can not be left unchecked. Louisville has to stop him.

Virginia is probably slightly better than Louisville offensively and their style really does test team’s patience. UVA’s Free Throw shooting ability really pushes the Cavs into the advantage with the ball. But the advantage is slight and the Cards should be able to play defense against this style and limit fouls. The big advantage in this game is with Louisville’s Defense. The Cards get more stops this year than UVA and Virginia just doesn’t have the same force on D that they had a year ago. It’s still good, but it’s not elite and Louisville can shoot much more consistently than they did a year ago. I like Louisville to win a fun one.

Louisville 75, Virginia 71

Last Year

Re-live last year’s Senior Day vs. Virginia with CrumsRevenge. Mangok’s Game Winner

Senior Day: Louisville 59, Virginia 57 from @CrumsRevenge on Vimeo.

Team Stats

	Louisville	Virginia
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	141st	13th
Points Per Game	81.0 (27th)	72.9 (163rd)
Avg Scoring Margin	+20.9 (1st)	+11.0 (31st)
Field Goal %	49.1% (12th)	49.6% (8th)
2-point FG%	53.9% (29th)	53.3% (38th)
3-point FG%	36.8% (83rd)	39.7% (18th)
Free Throw %	68.5% (212th)	75.0% (23rd)
Rebound Rate	57.5% (6th)	53.8% (35th)
Blocks Per Game	5.2 (24th)	2.7 (247th)
Steals Per Game	7.4 (49th)	5.3 (256th)
Assists Per Game	13.7 (138th)	14.7 (87th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.7 (62nd)	9.2 (1st)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.5 (52nd)	11.9 (243rd)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.7 (184th)	17.0 (28th)
Opponent Shooting %	36.9% (2nd)	43.1% (137th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	40.3% (3rd)	47.9% (148th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	30.5% (22nd)	35.7% (224th)
Opponent Block Per Game	3.1 (106th)	2.2 (8th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.4 (69th)	5.0 (31st)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	London Perrantes
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-2, 192, Jr.
Minutes	27.9	32.0
Points	9.8	11.7
Field Goal %	42.0%	46.80%
3-point %	42.6%	52.70%
FT %	70.0%	80.00%
Rebounds	2.3	3.2
Assists	3.7	4.4
Steals	0.9	1.1
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.3	1.9
Fouls	2.0	1.5

	Trey Lewis	Devon Hall
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-5, 209, Soph
Minutes	28.3	19.5
Points	12.7	4.4
Field Goal %	43.70%	41.90%
3-point %	39.40%	36.40%
FT %	84.30%	81.30%
Rebounds	3.7	2.4
Assists	2.6	1.7
Steals	0.9	0.5
Blocks	0.2	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	0.8
Fouls	1.8	1.3

	Damion Lee	Malcolm Brogdon
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-5, 215, Sr.
Minutes	32.2	33.6
Points	17.2	17.6
Field Goal %	46.9%	44.6%
3-point %	37.7%	37.5%
FT %	87.0%	84.7%
Rebounds	3.9	4.5
Assists	1.9	2.9
Steals	1.7	0.8
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.6	1.5
Fouls	2.0	2.1

	Jaylen Johnson	Anthony Gill
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 230, Sr.
Minutes	17.1	28.9
Points	4.8	15.0
Field Goal %	49.5%	60.10%
3-point %	22.2%	100.00%
FT %	42.9%	70.90%
Rebounds	4.0	6.0
Assists	0.6	0.7
Steals	0.3	0.6
Blocks	0.4	0.4
Turnovers	0.7	1.2
Fouls	2.0	2.4

	Chinanu Onuaku	Mike Tobey
	6-10, 230, Soph	7-0, 260, Sr.
Minutes	23.2	15.9
Points	10.6	7.2
Field Goal %	62.0%	58.1%
3-point %	0.0%	33.3%
FT %	59.5%	73.1%
Rebounds	9.0	4.2
Assists	1.1	0.5
Steals	0.8	0.3
Blocks	2.0	0.6
Turnovers	2.0	0.7
Fouls	2.8	2.0

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Darius Thompson
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-4, 196, Soph
Minutes	20.2	21.9
Points	7.8	6
Field Goal %	45.10%	52.40%
3-point %	23.30%	36.70%
FT %	74.50%	78.60%
Rebounds	3.9	1.8
Assists	1.9	1.8
Steals	0.9	1
Blocks	0.1	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	1
Fouls	2.8	1.9

	David Levitch	Marial Shayok
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-5, 213, Soph
Minutes	6.5	14.1
Points	1.9	3.8
Field Goal %	57.10%	50.00%
3-point %	50.00%	43.50%
FT %	72.70%	60.00%
Rebounds	0.7	1.3
Assists	0.5	1.2
Steals	0.3	0.4
Blocks	0.0	0.1
Turnovers	0.3	0.7
Fouls	0.5	1.4

	Deng Adel	Isaiah Wilkins
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-7, 230, Soph
Minutes	8.0	20.8
Points	2.3	4.3
Field Goal %	30.40%	50.00%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	78.60%	60.00%
Rebounds	1.5	3.7
Assists	0.5	1.5
Steals	0.1	0.8
Blocks	0.1	0.9
Turnovers	1.1	0.5
Fouls	0.8	1.7

	Ray Spalding	Evan Nolte
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-8, 228, Sr.
Minutes	16.3	8
Points	5.4	1.4
Field Goal %	61.60%	29.00%
3-point %	0.00%	13.30%
FT %	45.00%	71.40%
Rebounds	4.3	0.7
Assists	0.6	0.3
Steals	0.9	0.2
Blocks	0.8	0.1
Turnovers	1.0	0.2
Fouls	2.2	0.8

	Matz Stockman	Jack Salt
	7-0, 240, Soph	6-11, 250, Fr.
Minutes	6.4	8.3
Points	3.2	2.2
Field Goal %	65.40%	53.30%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	46.70%	25.00%
Rebounds	2.1	1.5
Assists	0.2	0
Steals	0.0	0.1
Blocks	0.2	0.3
Turnovers	0.5	0.6
Fouls	1.1	1.5

	Anas Mahmoud	Jarred Reuter
	7-0, 200, Soph	6-7, 243, Fr.
Minutes	12.4	6.3
Points	3.6	2.4
Field Goal %	53.20%	48.30%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	42.90%	71.40%
Rebounds	3	1.5
Assists	0.5	0.3
Steals	0.5	0.0
Blocks	1.2	0.0
Turnovers	0.9	0.2
Fouls	1.7	1.2