PREVIEW: Louisville vs. NC State

Mark BlankenbakerJanuary 6, 2016

Location: PNC Arena (19,700) Raleigh, NC
Game Time: 7:00 p.m., 1-7-2016
Line: Louisville -6
Series History: TIED 9-9, 3-4 in Raleigh
Last Time: Louisville 75, NC State 65 (NCAA East Regional Semifinal, Syracuse, NY. 3-27-2015)
TV: ESPN2 – Bob Wischusen, LaPhonso Ellis
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 81, XM 81
Game Officials: Doug Shows, Michael Stephens, Joe Lindsay

Click This Link to Watch Coach Pitino Preview the Wolfpack Here

PREDICTION

This time there won’t be Anton Gill to save the day, Louisville is going to have to find another way to beat the Wolfpack…..this time on NC State’s home court. North Carolina State was Louisville’s last win of 2014-15 in the NCAA Sweet 16 in the Carrier Dome last season. The Cards won in thrilling fashion while Terry Rozier & Quentin Snider limited Cat Barber to 3-14 shooting. Barber is a volume shooter prone to shooting low percentages, but his game has REALLY elevated from a year ago.

The Wolfpack’s biggest issue is that they really are not a deep basketball team. In an overtime game vs. Virginia Tech over the weekend Mark Gottfried played only 7 players. Louisville on the other hand still has plenty of depth after losing Mangok Mathiang for a few weeks, after losing Anas Mahmoud with an ankle sprain, and losing Deng Adel with a knee sprain. Anas & Deng are available (of course) and should be moving towards 100%.

NC State just isn’t a team that scores enough, shoots well enough, or defends well enough to beat the Cards. The Wolfpack does rebound & block shots and winning on the road in college basketball is a TALL ORDER, especially in the ACC.

This is another showcase type of game for Chinanu Onuaku. Jaylen Johnson/Ray Spalding vs. Abu is also interesting because Abu has the edge right now on both players but Rick Pitino is likely to send rotate Jaylen & Ray in waves to wear down the Power Forward.

I’m listing Donovan Mitchell as a starter in place of Trey Lewis until it is clear that Lewis’ ankle is 100%. Against Wake Forest Trey started hot and then slowly became more limited during the game. Both of these players will match-up with a much bigger Caleb Martin so it will be interesting to see if Deng Adel gets an expanded role off the bench for match-up purposes.

Damion Lee vs. Maverick Rowan is an absolute mis-match in the Cards favor but Quentin Snider vs. Cat Barber is probably the key match-up to watch for the Wolfpack.

In the end Louisville just has too much fire power and the The Pack are a few wolves short here.

Louisville 74 NC State 67

TEAM STATS

	Louisville	NC State
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	309th	228th
Points Per Game	83.6 (19th)	75.1 (119th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+26.3 (1st)	+6.4 (85th)
Field Goal %	50.8% (8th)	41.8% (241st)
2-point FG%	55.9% (20th)	45.8% (252nd)
3-point FG%	37.8% (62nd)	31.7% (255th)
Free Throw %	68.2% (205th)	67.6% (227th)
Rebound Rate	59.7% (2nd)	54.4% (35th)
Blocks Per Game	5.4 (27th)	5.2 (36th)
Steals Per Game	7.9 (36th)	4.8 (303rd)
Assists Per Game	14.1 (121st)	11.4 (277th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.3 (45th)	10.3 (16th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	15.1 (46th)	10.9 (313th)
Team Fouls Per Game	18.7 (105th)	16.7 (23rd)
Opponent Shooting %	36.3% (5th)	40.4% (60th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	39.4% (5th)	42.4% (30th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	30.9% (47th)	36.8% (268th)
Opponent Block Per Game	2.8 (65th)	3.2 (132nd)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.5 (77th)	6.2 (173rd)

	*351 teams Play Division 1

PROJECTED STARTERS

	Quentin Snider	Cat Barber
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-2, 190, Jr.
Minutes	27.7	38.9
Points	9.2	22.9
Field Goal %	40.3%	41.6%
3-point %	38.1%	29.7%
FT %	73.9%	84.7%
Rebounds	2.3	5.4
Assists	4.0	4.9
Steals	0.9	0.4
Blocks	0.0	0.1
Turnovers	1.1	2.1
Fouls	1.8	2.3

	Donovan Mitchell	Maverick Rowan
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-7, 215, Fr.
Minutes	20.3	32.8
Points	8.5	12.6
Field Goal %	47.30%	36.40%
3-point %	25.70%	31.90%
FT %	81.50%	71.80%
Rebounds	4.3	3.9
Assists	2.0	0.9
Steals	1.1	0.6
Blocks	0.1	0.0
Turnovers	0.9	1.4
Fouls	2.8	2.4

	Damion Lee	Caleb Martin
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-7, 215, Soph.
Minutes	30.2	34.9
Points	17.6	12.2
Field Goal %	49.4%	35.8%
3-point %	38.2%	34.0%
FT %	89.6%	71.4%
Rebounds	4.0	4.8
Assists	1.6	1.5
Steals	1.6	0.9
Blocks	0.0	0.6
Turnovers	1.4	1.9
Fouls	1.8	2.4

	Jaylen Johnson	Abdul-Malik Abu
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-8, 240, Soph
Minutes	16.1	25.1
Points	5.4	10.8
Field Goal %	50.7%	43.80%
3-point %	0.0%	0.00%
FT %	42.9%	59.70%
Rebounds	3.9	8.1
Assists	0.6	1.1
Steals	0.4	0.4
Blocks	0.4	0.6
Turnovers	0.6	1.2
Fouls	1.9	2.4

	Chinanu Onuaku	BeeJay Anya
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-9, 285, Jr.
Minutes	21.9	24.4
Points	9.6	5.6
Field Goal %	62.9%	65.2%
3-point %	0.0%	0.0%
FT %	52.0%	38.0%
Rebounds	8.2	5.6
Assists	1.1	0.6
Steals	0.8	0.6
Blocks	2.0	3.1
Turnovers	1.7	1.3
Fouls	2.5	3.1

BENCH

	Trey Lewis	Cody Martin
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-7, 210, Soph
Minutes	28.1	22.6
Points	14.3	5.8
Field Goal %	49.30%	47.50%
3-point %	45.50%	0.00%
FT %	83.30%	62.20%
Rebounds	3.6	4.3
Assists	2.4	1.6
Steals	1.0	1.2
Blocks	0.1	0.7
Turnovers	1.9	0.9
Fouls	1.7	1.6

	David Levitch
	6-3, 180, Jr.
Minutes	8.1
Points	2.6
Field Goal %	61.50%
3-point %	57.10%
FT %	66.70%
Rebounds	0.8
Assists	0.5
Steals	0.4
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	0.3
Fouls	0.7

	Deng Adel
	6-7, 200, Fr.
Minutes	11.0
Points	3.2
Field Goal %	38.50%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	75.00%
Rebounds	1.8
Assists	0.8
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.0
Turnovers	1.3
Fouls	1.0

	Ray Spalding	Lennard Freeman
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-9, 250, Jr.
Minutes	16.4	23.3
Points	5.7	4.6
Field Goal %	63.00%	52.20%
3-point %	0.00%	0.00%
FT %	41.40%	53.30%
Rebounds	4.9	6.7
Assists	0.6	0.9
Steals	0.9	0.6
Blocks	0.9	0.2
Turnovers	0.9	1
Fouls	1.7	2.1

	Matz Stockman
	7-0, 240, Soph
Minutes	7.4
Points	3.9
Field Goal %	60.90%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	53.80%
Rebounds	2.9
Assists	0.2
Steals	0.0
Blocks	0.2
Turnovers	0.7
Fouls	1.3

	Anas Mahmoud
	7-0, 200, Soph
Minutes	10.6
Points	2.3
Field Goal %	52.90%
3-point %	0.00%
FT %	38.90%
Rebounds	2.5
Assists	0.4
Steals	0.5
Blocks	1.3
Turnovers	0.6
Fouls	1.2