Louisville Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

Mark BlankenbakerNovember 19, 2014

Louisville Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

Louisville Offense

	Total Defense	Louisville Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	323	336	13	104.02%
Virginia	347.8	282	-65.8	81.08%
FIU	372.6	336	-36.6	90.18%
Wake Forest	373.8	421	47.2	112.63%
Syracuse	344.3	352	7.7	102.24%
Clemson	262.1	264	1.9	100.72%
NC State	388.2	369	-19.2	95.05%
Florida State	385.8	488	102.2	126.49%
Boston College	323.5	423	99.5	130.76%
		Average	16.66	104.80%

As you can see Louisville has really performed very close to what opposing defenses have allowed in 2014. On average, Louisville either gains about +14 yards more or just 94.32% of what Defenses give up on the year.

Given that Notre Dame allows 383.2 yards per game, we can expect that Louisville will gain 400-402 yards on Saturday. If we focus in on games that Reggie Bonnafon started: Wake Forest, Syracuse, & Clemson then we can actually raise that to 403-440 yards per game. Wake, Syracuse, and Clemson actually are all better defenses than Notre Dame statistically, and the Irish are just slightly better on defense than NC State & Florida State.

Notre Dame Defense

	Total Offense	Notre Dame Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Rice	396.4	367	-29.4	92.58%
Michigan	322.6	289	-33.6	89.58%
Purdue	347.2	290	-57.2	83.53%
Syracuse	356.6	429	72.4	120.30%
Stanford	378.4	205	-173.4	54.18%
North Carolina	430.6	510	79.4	118.44%
Florida State	446.6	323	-123.6	72.32%
Navy	447	454	7	101.57%
Arizona State	464.8	412	-52.8	88.64%
Northwestern	345.1	547	201.9	158.50%
		Average	-10.93	97.96%

The Irish, have really allowed opponents to do what they typically do for the season offensively. To date, The Irish’s best two defensive games came against Stanford and Florida State and a fresh off the worst defensive performance of the season vs. Northwestern who burned ND both from the ground and the air.

Louisville’s Offense averages 387.4 yards per game and given Notre Dame’s defense performance in 2014, we can expect that Louisville will gain between 376-379 yards. which falls in line with what we discovered while examining Louisville’s offensive performance above.

The Cardinal offense will be 6th best (of 11) offenses that Notre Dame has faced this year (statistically).

Cardinal Passing Offense vs. Irish Passing Defense:

UofL Passing Offense

	Passing Defense	Louisville Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	192.9	206	13.1	106.79%
Virginia	229.2	203	-26.2	88.57%
FIU	212.3	324	111.7	152.61%
Wake Forest	180.3	206	25.7	114.25%
Syracuse	217	174	-43	80.18%
Clemson	155.2	212	56.8	136.60%
NC State	199.4	203	3.6	101.81%
Florida State	246.1	330	83.9	134.09%
Boston College	226.9	257	30.1	113.27%
		Average	28.41	114.24%

Despite playing both Reggie Bonnafon & Will Gardner at different times during 2014, Louisville actually performs better than what defenses typically allow in the air by a decent margin. Notre Dame allows 232.6 yards per game passing, and will be the 8th best (of 10) passing defenses Louisville has faced in 2014. The Cards have faced four different Top 30 Passing Offenses in 2014 and still exceed the average allowed on the season.

Given what we know we can expect that the Cards will gain 259-261 yards through the air. When we strip it down to just games that Reggie Bonnafon has started, Wake, Syracuse & Clemson that number changes to 245-256 yards.

Louisville has had 4 consecutive games that exceeded the average allowed of their opponents including 6 of the last 7 opponents.

ND Passing Defense

	Passing Offense	Notre Dame Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Rice	211.9	226	14.1	106.65%
Michigan	168.5	189	20.5	112.17%
Purdue	187.5	234	46.5	124.80%
Syracuse	199.4	294	94.6	147.44%
Stanford	233.2	158	-75.2	67.75%
North Carolina	290.3	326	35.7	112.30%
Florida State	318.3	273	-45.3	85.77%
Navy	92.2	118	25.8	127.98%
Arizona State	281.7	224	-57.7	79.52%
Northwestern	219.9	284	64.1	129.15%
		Average	12.31	109.35%

Notre Dame’s Passing Defense is similar, the Irish allow about 12 yards more than opponents usually gain on the season, but Notre Dame’s passing defense has been much more volatile throughout the season. These averages will likely be more bullish, but given the season average of Louisville passing for 239.3 yards per game, we should be able to expect that the Cards will gain about 251-261 yards against the Irish.

This expectation falls very close in line with the UofL Passing Offense equation so we should expect the Cards to have a pretty good day in the air on Saturday.

UofL Rushing Offense vs. ND Rushing Defense

Louisville Rushing Offense

	Rushing Defense	Louisville Gained vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Miami (FL)	130.1	130	-0.1	99.92%
Virginia	118.6	79	-39.6	66.61%
FIU	160.36	12	-148.36	7.48%
Wake Forest	193.5	215	21.5	111.11%
Syracuse	127.3	178	50.7	139.83%
Clemson	106.9	52	-54.9	48.64%
NC State	188.82	166	-22.82	87.91%
Florida State	139.7	158	18.3	113.10%
Boston College	96.6	166	69.4	171.84%
		Average	-11.76	94.05%

Louisville has been able to run the ball much better recently after posting 5 of its last 6 games over 100 yards. Louisville has played 6 teams in the Top 36 in Rush Defense and average less than what their opponents usually allow by a small margin. Notre Dame will be the 7th best (of 10) Rush Defense Louisville has played in 2014 allowing 150.60 yards per game.

The statistical expectation is for the Cards to gain 139-142 yards against the Irish.

Notre Dame Rushing Defense

	Rushing Offense	Notre Dame Allowed vs.	Deviation from Avg.	% Gained of Avg
Rice	184.5	141	-43.5	76.42%
Michigan	154.1	100	-54.1	64.89%
Purdue	159.7	56	-103.7	35.07%
Syracuse	157.4	135	-22.4	85.77%
Stanford	145.2	47	-98.2	32.37%
North Carolina	140.3	184	43.7	131.15%
Florida State	128.3	50	-78.3	38.97%
Navy	354.8	336	-18.8	94.70%
Arizona State	183.1	188	4.9	102.68%
Northwestern	125.2	263	137.8	210.06%
		Average	-23.26	87.21%

Notre Dame has allowed over 180 yards on the ground the last 3 games. The Navy & Arizona State games were not out of the ordinary BUT the Northwestern game where the Irish allowed 263 yards to the 107th Rushing Offensive team in the nation, IS ALARMING. Notre Dame’s defensive front was not healthy against the Wildcats and won’t be against the Cards either, but this is a trend to take note of.

Still despite recent play Notre Dame’s season average is to hold the Running Game under control to much less than opponents are accustomed to. Louisville averages 148.10 on the ground and data tells us that Louisville should gain about 125-129 on the ground in Notre Dame Stadium.

Summary

What we need to discover is how well Reggie Bonnafon will play on the road against Notre Dame. The Irish and Cards line up with expectations both running and throwing the football but Louisville’s freshman Quarterback and Notre Dame’s recent performance stopping the run are the big evaluators. My eyes tell me that the Cards will probably run about 50 yards better than indicated with the addition of Reggie Bonnafon at Quarterback who might make up that difference himself.

In the air, well, that depends on the game. We saw against Boston College how Petrino called his offense with a lead and a freshman quarterback on the road…..Petrino relied on his defense to put his team in high percentage opportunities. If Louisville gets the lead early, Bonnafon may not throw more than 25 times against Notre Dame.