Boston College’s offense is VERY different than anything Louisville has faced thus far in 2014. Quarterback Tyler Murphy makes EVERYTHING go for the Eagles and uses a lot of deception….but it is almost entirely about the running game. Murphy is a capable passer, but that’s not what Boston College really is going for.
The Eagles have gained over 400 yards in 4 of 8 FBS contests and average 15 yards more than opponents are allowing on the season or 103%.
Louisville’s Offense on the other hand has been equally outstanding minus the past two contests where the Cards allowed 351 yards to NC State and then following a BYE allowed 574 yards (almost all in the 2nd half) to Florida State. That’s a bad trend, but even with those two outliers the Cards limit opponents to an average of 93 yards fewer than their opponents average or just 72%.
Based on what BC does on offense and what Louisville usually allows we can reasonably expect the Eagles to gain between 292-313 yards Saturday against the Cards.
|Total Defense||BC Gained||Deviation from Avg||% Gained of Avg Allowed|
|Total Offense||UofL Allowed||Deviation from Avg||% Gained of Avg Allowed|
Boston College Running Game vs. Louisville Rushing Defense
BC’s Running Game is tremendous. The Eagles have gained over 200+ yards on the ground in 6 of 8 FBS games in 2014. That is OUTSTANDING production. All of the action goes through QB Tyler Murphy but Murphy does have several Running Backs at his disposal that keep the offense fresh.
The game that really stands out is BC’s game against USC who allows an average of just 138.44 yards rushing yards per game (the best Run D that the Eagles have faced in 2014) and Boston College posted a HUGE 452 yards rushing. The Eagles went on to beat the Trojans in Boston and that is Boston Collge’s best rushing game to date and by far the largest deviation from opponents average allowed rushing.
On the season BC gains 96.74 yards MORE than what opponents usually allow OR 161% which would factor Louisville’s 80.33 yards allowed into an expected range of 129-177 that we can statistically expect Boston College to gain on the ground Saturday night against the Cards.
|Rushing Defense||Boston College Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Louisville’s Run Defense has been suffocating and Florida State has been the ONLY team in 8 FBS games that have achieved more yards on the ground than the season average. Louisville allowed several uncharacteristic long plays from scrimmage that skew the FSU totals…..BUT those plays count like all the others…..
Still, Louisville limits opponents to 53 fewer yards than what opponents typically average…or just 52%. Boston College averages 274.89 yards per game, and this moves the expected range much higher than what we saw above to 143-221 yards on the ground.
CLEARLY this is a huge spread and the biggest battle on the field Saturday night. Can Louisville stop the BC rushing attack….Can the Eagles Running Game get any room against Louisville? The answer will likely determine the winner of the ballgame.
|Rushing Offense||Louisville Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Boston College Passing Game vs. Louisville Passing Defense
BC doesn’t really want to throw the ball…….like at all. The Eagles actually throw the ball less than option heavy Georgia Tech. Tyler Murphy certainly has the ability in his skill set, but it just isn’t something Boston College does a lot.
Steve Addazio’s group has a low of 54 yards (a ton rushing, however) and a high of 173 yards against UMASS. But BC typically gains about 81 yards fewer than what their opponents typically allow, or just 64.19%. Given that Louisville generally allows 201.9 yards per game we can expect BC to gain 120-130 yards through the air on Saturday Night.
|Passing Defense||Boston College Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Louisville Passing Defense has done a really nice job all season minus the past two games of limiting opponents through the air. Florida State once again is the major outlier, but the Cards still limit their opponents 40 yards less than usual or just 81% of the season total.
Boston College averages just 131.7 yards per game through the air so this range is a little lower than above at 91-107 yards. Still unless BC needs to manage the clock late in the ball game I don’t expect the BC passing game to determine the game’s outcome.
|Passing Offense||Louisville Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
In the end Louisville needs to stop Tyler Murphy. PERIOD. Everything goes through Murphy and it mostly happens on the ground. Louisville is somewhat beaten up defensively and that’s not a good recipe for a game that is going to see a ton of hard carries. Louisville needs to bounce back after a very disappointing effort in the 2nd half of Florida State and Boston College is an extremely tough challenge.
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