Looking Ahead At Louisville Basketball’s 2017-18 Roster

As we go through the post-mortem of the 2016-17 Basketball season, many people, including the players in the Michigan post-game locker room expressed excitement for the upcoming season.  The Cards do lose seniors Mangok Mathiang (19 starts, 7.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 37 blocks), David Levitch (3 starts, 1.8 ppg) & Tony Hicks (1 start 3.7 ppg) but Rick Pitino and his staff are also bringing in quite a few players that will help Louisville Basketball next season.

The Draft

It’s possible that Louisville could lose Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel & Jaylen Johnson to the NBA Draft as all 3 just declared.  I’d put the probability of losing Donovan Mitchell at about 50%, Deng Adel at about 15% and Jaylen Johnson at about 2%.    Donovan will move up and down the draft boards over the next 60 days and some of it won’t have anything to do with how well he works out….but rather how well the other guards in the draft perform.

As for Deng Adel its possible that his late play this season and his performance this past summer has a few NBA guys excited to see him work out because he established a bit of a reputation.  Jaylen Johnson, however, is wisely going to learn & develop.  Jaylen just doesn’t have the production to warrant & NBA selection yet BUT he can definitely learn a few things by going through the process and potentially get on scouts radar with some good workouts for the 2018 process.

I’m of the opinion that all 3 players need to return for another season, BUT if Donovan Mitchell does move into the 15-20 selection range…..  it’s tough to pass up.  Mitchell is a year younger than Terry Rozier (Rozier went to pre before UofL) and could easily see another big jump in his game a year from now and into the lottery.  Either way, the Cards must wait and develop contingencies if Mitchell or anyone else decides to leave.

The Players

(Players will be listed at multiple spots if they can play multiple positions)

Point Guard

Quentin Snider 6-2, 175, Sr. – 28 starts, 31.3 minutes, 12.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.1 ast
Donovan Mitchell 6-3, 200, Jr. – 33 starts, 32.3 minutes, 15.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 ast, 2.1 steals (also listed at SG)
Ryan McMahon 6-0, 170, Soph – 0 starts, 6.3 minutes, 2.5 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.6 ast

Incoming:

Darius Perry 6-2, 170 – #66 overall/#75 overall/#88 overall (247/Scout/Rivals) – also listed at SG

Point Guard is interesting because Louisville really needed a viable back-up to Quentin Snider all year.  The best back-up was Donovan Mitchell which left a void at Shooting Guard.  That won’t be the case next season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rick Pitino tinker with his line-ups early on to find the best mix….and definitely will mix and match who starts/plays the most based on match-ups.  And that’s really going to be the theme of next season from a roster perspective, Rick Pitino can really match and answer almost every lineup an opponent is going to throw in front of him.

Quentin Snider got better defensively as a junior….but UofL still had to hide him at times.  The one thing that stood out to me was the Snider actually shot better when he played off the ball and will return as UofL’s 2nd leading scorer at 12.4 ppg.  Q’s presence was very calming for the UofL offense and the team really thrived when Snider beat his man off the bounce and got into the lane.  It will be interesting for Quentin because his minutes will likely go down as the Cards will have more options at guard.  Pitino has said that he plans to play Donovan Mitchell more often at point guard and Ryan McMahon will also be another year older/wiser.

Also, Darius Perry is coming in from Atlanta, GA and Rick Pitino has already praised Darius’ ability to play Defense.  Perry is going to come in and be a presence at either guard spot and we’ll have to see how much time he gets as a freshman with Q & Donovan in this backcourt, but if he’s effective then it’s better for everyone.

The net affect for the Cardinals will be a tighter unit down the stretch AND when things aren’t going well for Q/Donovan/Ryan/Darius then Rick Pitino will have scholarship options to find a solution.  This also will be the case at the 2 spot as well.   In the end I think we’ll still see a lot of Q, but we’ll also see a lot of the other 3 as well.

Shooting Guard

Donovan Mitchell 6-3, 200, Jr. – 33 starts, 32.3 minutes, 15.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 ast, 2.1 steals (also listed at PG)
Deng Adel 6-7, 200, Jr. – 30 starts, 30.1 minutes, 12.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.1 ast (also listed at Small Forward)
VJ King  6-6, 190, Soph.  – 7 starts, 13.5 minutes, 5.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.5 ast (also listed at Small Forward)
Jay Henderson 6-4, 180, Jr.-0 starts, 2.1 minutes, 0.9 ppg, 0.2 rpg, 0.2 ast
Tyler Sharpe 6-1, 185, Soph – 0 starts, 1.6 minutes, 0.3 ppg, 0.1 ast

Incoming:

Darius Perry 6-2, 170 – #66 overall/#75 overall/#88 overall (247/Scout/Rivals) – also listed at PG

Pitino told Ramsey & Rutherford that Deng Adel could play more SG next season, but VJ King could also fill that role here as well.  Both players have position flexibility should Rick decide to play Donovan Mitchell more at Point Guard.  To me though, Donovan Mitchell is still the best option at the 2-guard spot, BUT if Pitino does elect to go with more of a “Michigan” type approach (sort of positionless basketball) then he can play that style as well.

If anything the options that Pitino is going to have throughout its roster are going to allow him to show different looks and suddenly change the style that UofL plays making the Cards very difficult to prepare for.  Donovan Mitchell certainly is the guy to focus on here, but he’ll also run some point and be a guy that Pitino tries to maintain his 30+ minutes per game.

Deng Adel & VJ probably both mix in to the 2-spot as needed when Quentin Snider sits and Donovan Mitchell is running point guard.  As we’ll talk about in the Small Forward section, UofL is just going to have a lot more options at the 1, 2 & 3 spots that players who can play multiple positions are going to benefit the most.  VJ King needs to work on his lateral movement and hand placement to really increase his minutes from 13.5 per game (Donovan Mitchell played 19.1 mins as a freshman, Q played 16.4 mpg, Rozier played 18.9 mpg).

Darius Perry can also play the 2-spot if needed but we’re going to have to see how Pitino plans on using him.  If anything it could be in situations when the Cards are playing a smaller backcourt and Rick is trying to match speed.

Small Forward

Deng Adel 6-7, 200, Jr. – 30 starts, 30.1 minutes, 12.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.1 ast (also listed at Shooting Guard)
VJ King 6-6, 190, Soph.  – 7 starts, 13.5 minutes, 5.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.5 ast (also listed at Shooting Guard)
Dwayne Sutton 6-5, 200, RS-Soph – stats from UNC-Asheville- 30.5 minutes, 12.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.3 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.7 blocks (also listed at PF)

Incoming:

Malik Williams 6’10, 200 – #23 overall/#20 overall/#22 overall (247/Scout/Rivals) – also listed at PF
Jordan Nwora 6’7, 220 – #110 overall/#26 SF/#87 overall (247/Scout/Rivals)

Rick Pitino spoke about playing VJ King & Deng Adel more at the 2 spot in 2017-18 which is going to get both players on the floor together more often.  It’s going to be tough for Adel to play 30.1 minutes per game again in 2017-18, but perhaps playing some at the 2 spot could get the Cards there if VJ King is ready.  Deng Adel is probably the most likely starter at the 3 spot for much of the season but if some of these other players start playing really well then Rick Pitino is going to have to find a way to get that talent on the floor.

VJ King is a natural offensive talent and really must get better on defense.  King will see an increased role with a really good off-season, but there are 3 other players who can really make an impact at this spot which is why Pitino may be anxious to move guys around:  Dwayne Sutton, Malik Williams & Jordan Nwora

Malik Williams is the guy that most people are anxious to see.  He can play the 3 (but he’s probably a 4) and he’s UofL’s highest rated recruit incoming for this class.  Williams is LONG, can shoot and can handle the basketball.  Williams’s skill set likely makes Pitino try to figure out how best to use him as many believe he could be Rick’s 1st ‘one and done’.  If he’s THAT good then Pitino has a home run playing Donovan, Deng & Malik on the floor at the same time which can be the 1, 2, 3 or the 2, 3, 4.  I don’t think we need to know that answer today, but it’s one to keep an eye on.

Dwayne Sutton transferred to UofL from UNC-Asheville and is a native son of our city having played at Manual High School.  Sutton is solidly built and was the MVP of the Big South Tournament in 2016 and played well in the NCAA Tournament vs. Villanova (who would win the NCAA Title in 2016). Sutton averaged 30.5 minutes per game, 12.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game as a true freshman.  Sutton sat out the 2016-17 season and has been in the program so we’ll have to see where his game is next time we see him.

Jordan Nwora is going to be a MAJOR talent for UofL and he’ll definitely see the court in 2017-18 in a variety of ways.  Nwora has a quick release and knows how to use his body inside and has a fantastic shot.  The 3 spot is a packed position for UofL and moving Deng & VJ to the 2 some could be to get some Jordan Nwora on the court but it’s more likely that Nwora’s time comes a year later, we’ll see.

Power Forward

Jaylen Johnson 6-9, 230, Sr. – 26 starts , 20.5 minutes, 8.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.5 ast, 0.5 blocks
Ray Spalding 6-10, 215, Jr. – 8 starts, 19.2 minutes, 5.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.8 ast, 0.9 blocks (also listed at Center)
Dwayne Sutton 6-5, 200, RS-Soph – stats from UNC-Asheville- 30.5 minutes, 12.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.3 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.7 blocks (also listed at PF)

Incoming:

Malik Williams 6’10, 200 – #23 overall/#20 overall/#22 overall (247/Scout/Rivals) – also listed at SF
Lance Thomas 6’9, 210 – #118 overall/#17 PF/#123 overall (247/Scout/Rivals)

Jaylen Johnson is going into the draft to get feedback.  He’ll return but he better be working really hard because there are plenty of guys gunning for his spot.   Jaylen is UofL’s returning leading rebounding as Mangok Mathiang has departed with 5.8 per game and 8.0 ppg.  Jaylen really needs to make big improvements just like he did from his sophomore to junior seasons.  If he can do that he can probably hold off his competition.

Ray Spalding is probably sitting on $70 million in the NBA if he wants it.  Rick Pitino lamented Ray Spalding’s off-season leading up to the 2016-17 season and what Ray needs to understand is that the players who want to play in the NBA are getting to workout for NBA teams and are staying in shape, lifting weights, working on their skills…….and have a singular focus of earning that generational wealth that comes with being an NBA Lottery selection.  Ray Spalding has that type of talent but those things don’t just happen, he’s got to work to go get it.  Spalding has one of the best attitudes and demeanor and everyone in the UofL locker room loves Ray Spalding. Can Ray Spalding also make NBA scouts fall in love with him as well?  Spalding can be one of Louisville’s most disruptive players and also one of its most invisible.  If he wants to elevate his game towards his potential he needs consistent assertive effort and a jump shot.  The sky is really the limit for Ray.

Malik Williams is probably best fit for the 4 spot, but Rick Pitino has to find a way to get his best 5 on the court so he could play the 3 and move the normal Small Forwards to Shooting Guard.  Or he could settle here and not disrupt the Louisville backcourt.  We know that Williams is a gifted offensive player but what we don’t know is whether or not Malik can handle the power forwards in the ACC/NCAA that he’ll have to deal with nightly.

Lance Thomas is going to be a major contributor at Power Forward eventually but he’s probably in the same boat as Jordan Nwora as there is A LOT of talent and experience at this position.  But who knows, if Lance goes to work he can push for some serious time.  It just gets a lot less crowded for the season after.  Dwayne Sutton is probably an emergency answer at Power Forward if absolutely necessary.

Center

Anas Mahmoud 7-0, 215, Sr. – 15 starts, 18.7 minutes, 5.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.8 ast, 2.1 blocks
Ray Spalding 6-10, 215, Jr. – 8 starts, 19.2 minutes, 5.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.8 ast, 0.9 blocks (also listed at Power Forward)
Matz Stockman 7-0, 240, Sr. – 0 starts,  4.1 minutes, 1.7 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.1 bpg, 0.2 ast

I’m listing Ray Spalding also at Center because Rick Pitino may need to spread some guys around positionally to accommodate the talent he has coming back (assuming it all comes back). Ray can play Center, but he has to learn to reduce his fouls if he is going to play this position.  So Anas Mahmoud as the real advantage at this position heading into the 2017-18 season.  Anas really MUST increase his focus and effort.  Mahmoud has all of the talent in the world but there really is no reason why he can look like a lottery pick one night and a MAC bench player the next.  That’s all just preparation and mental focus.  If Mahmoud puts it together and really hones in then UofL has its answer in the middle for 2017-18.

It will also be interesting to see if Matz Stockman redshirts or not.  Matz has a big body and always draws the praise of his play in practice by Rick Pitino.  Pitino may elect to play 2 power forwards at times as well so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ray & Jaylen on the floor at the same time or even Thomas OR Williams also mixing in here at times.  The good news is that Coach Pitino has a lot of big bodies to mix and match.

Possible Starting Lineups

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Mark Blankenbaker

@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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