PREVIEW: Louisville vs. Virginia

Mark BlankenbakerMarch 5, 2016

Location: John Paul Jones Arena (Charlottesville, VA)
Game Time: 8:30, 3-5-2016
Line: Virginia -5.5 (opened at -7)
Series History: Virginia leads 7-4 (3-1 in Charlottesville)
Last Time: Virginia 63, Louisville 47 (Louisville 1-30-2015)
TV: ESPN– Dave O’Brien, Dick Vitale, Allison Williams
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Bob Valvano, Sirius 84, XM 84
Game Officials: Bryan Kersey, Mike Eades, Louis Andrakakos

My Prediction

Last time out vs. Virginia the Cards were still eligible for the post-season. There was a lot of hype leading up to the game, a white out, special uniforms……and UofL got punked on its own floor.

Louisville shot just 32.7% and Virginia was 57.8%. The Cards struggled to get into their offense and rarely rotated the ball. A series of bad shots created by the Pack Line Defense of Tony Bennett and UVA completely took UofL off its game.

Ray Spalding & Deng Adel both were bright spots and scored 12 points apiece (24 of UofL’s 47 points) and no other player managed to get into double digits. Chinanu Onuaku played just 19 minutes. Meanwhile for Virginia Anthony Gill & Malcolm Brogdon were outstanding.

Louisville now enters Saturday night’s match-up against the Cavaliers not eligible for the post-season, on Virginia’s Senior Night, on the road…and it’s the final game of the year. The game follows an emotional Senior Night for the Cards and comes at the end of a really stressful final 5 weeks of the season. Beating Virginia after suffering 16-point loss at home the last time vs. UVA & UofL played seems unlikely. But Rick Pitino has an excellent record in reversing losses suffered earlier in the year.

The Cards can not get frustrated. They can not over dribble. They must rebound. They must play defense for the entire shot clock, and they must defend the 3-point line. Virginia is a relentless team and are fighting for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also want to send their seniors out on the right note…….

UofL is going to need its length and if they can stick to the gameplan (and stay out of 1st half foul trouble) this will be a more competitive game. But I don’t see Louisville winning as Virginia has tons to play for in front of its home crowd and even when the Cards had a full emotional tank they were beaten by double digits at home. It will be better, but not enough.

Virginia 69, Louisville 62

Team Stats

	Louisville	Virginia
Strength of Schedule (KenPom)	58th	6th
Points Per Game	75.9 (96th)	70.8 (211th)
Avg Scoring Margin	+15.0 (2nd)	+10.7 (20th)
Field Goal %	47.5% (25th)	48.8% (10th)
2-point FG%	52.4% (45th)	52.0% (54th)
3-point FG%	35.4% (143rd)	40.6% (10th)
Free Throw %	69.0% (206th)	76.0% (17th)
Rebound Rate	55.1% (18th)	52.9% (50th)
Blocks Per Game	4.9 (32nd)	3.0 (214th)
Steals Per Game	7.1 (55th)	5.6 (214th)
Assists Per Game	13.6 (144th)	14.6 (80th)
Turnovers Per Game	11.6 (74th)	9.3 (5th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game	14.3 (45th)	12.1 (216th)
Team Fouls Per Game	19.0 (138th)	16.7 (26th)
Opponent Shooting %	38.7% (8th)	42.1% (89th)
Opponent 2-point FG%	42.5% (13th)	46.4% (79th)
Opponent 3-point FG%	31.9% (44th)	35.3% (208th)
Opponent Block Per Game	2.9 (55th)	2.3 (8th)
Opponent Steals Per Game	5.5 (85th)	5.2 (49th)

Projected Starters

	Quentin Snider	London Perrantes
	6-1, 180, Soph	6-2, 192, Jr.
Minutes	28.2	32.8
Points	9.7	11.3
Field Goal %	40.7%	45.20%
3-point %	40.8%	50.90%
FT %	75.0%	84.10%
Rebounds	2.3	3.0
Assists	3.6	4.4
Steals	0.8	1.1
Blocks	0.0	0.1
Turnovers	1.3	1.9
Fouls	1.9	1.2

	Deng Adel	Devon Hall
	6-7, 200, Fr.	6-5, 209, Soph
Minutes	11.9	20.9
Points	4.1	4.6
Field Goal %	47.60%	39.20%
3-point %	35.30%	34.60%
FT %	74.10%	80.80%
Rebounds	2.1	2.6
Assists	0.6	1.8
Steals	0.3	0.5
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.2	0.8
Fouls	1.0	1.3

	Damion Lee	Malcolm Brogdon
	6-6, 200, Sr.	6-5, 215, Sr.
Minutes	33.5	33.8
Points	16.2	18.5
Field Goal %	43.6%	47.7%
3-point %	35.1%	42.2%
FT %	84.1%	88.4%
Rebounds	3.9	4.3
Assists	2.0	2.8
Steals	1.6	0.9
Blocks	0.0	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	1.5
Fouls	2.0	2.1

	Jaylen Johnson	Isaiah Wilkins
	6-9, 215, Soph	6-7, 230, Soph
Minutes	17.4	21.5
Points	5.1	4.8
Field Goal %	46.6%	50.90%
3-point %	20.0%	0.00%
FT %	53.8%	65.90%
Rebounds	3.6	4.1
Assists	0.5	1.4
Steals	0.3	0.8
Blocks	0.3	0.8
Turnovers	0.6	0.7
Fouls	2.0	2.0

	Chinanu Onuaku	Anthony Gill
	6-10, 230, Soph	6-8, 230, Sr.
Minutes	24.7	28.4
Points	10.0	13.5
Field Goal %	62.9%	55.3%
3-point %	0.0%	100.0%
FT %	59.3%	71.7%
Rebounds	8.6	6.2
Assists	1.6	0.6
Steals	0.8	0.6
Blocks	2.0	0.6
Turnovers	2.1	1.2
Fouls	2.9	2.4

Bench

	Donovan Mitchell	Darius Thompson
	6-3, 210, Fr.	6-4, 196, Soph
Minutes	19.0	19.3
Points	7.3	4.6
Field Goal %	45.00%	51.00%
3-point %	25.40%	30.60%
FT %	73.60%	76.70%
Rebounds	3.3	1.4
Assists	1.7	1.7
Steals	0.7	0.8
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.0	0.9
Fouls	2.5	1.7

	Trey Lewis	Marial Shayok
	6-2, 190, Sr.	6-5, 213, Soph
Minutes	27.7	15.0
Points	11.4	4
Field Goal %	42.20%	48.80%
3-point %	35.40%	43.80%
FT %	80.00%	55.60%
Rebounds	3.5	1.7
Assists	2.3	1.2
Steals	1.0	0.4
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	1.7	0.6
Fouls	1.8	1.4

	David Levitch	Jarred Reuter
	6-3, 180, Jr.	6-7, 243, Fr.
Minutes	7.1	5.3
Points	2.5	1.8
Field Goal %	65.00%	45.7%
3-point %	66.70%	0.0%
FT %	72.70%	80.0%
Rebounds	0.6	1.1
Assists	0.5	0.2
Steals	0.3	0.0
Blocks	0.0	0.0
Turnovers	0.3	0.3
Fouls	0.5	1.1

	Ray Spalding	Evan Nolte
	6-10, 210, Fr.	6-8, 228, Sr.
Minutes	17.5	8.1
Points	5.7	1.5
Field Goal %	55.70%	31.80%
3-point %	33.30%	19.20%
FT %	50.00%	71.40%
Rebounds	4.3	0.8
Assists	0.5	0.3
Steals	0.9	0.2
Blocks	0.7	0.2
Turnovers	0.9	0.3
Fouls	2.1	0.8

	Matz Stockman	Mike Tobey
	7-0, 240, Soph	7-0, 260, Sr.
Minutes	5.7	15.3
Points	2.7	6.7
Field Goal %	56.80%	57.90%
3-point %	0.00%	28.60%
FT %	50.00%	62.20%
Rebounds	1.7	3.7
Assists	0.2	0.5
Steals	0.0	0.3
Blocks	0.4	0.6
Turnovers	0.3	0.7
Fouls	1.0	2.1