Location: Petersen Events Center (12,508)
Game Time: 8:00, 2-24-2016
Line: Louisville -1.5
Series History: Louisville Leads 11-5 (UofL leads 4-1 in Pittsburgh)
Last Time: Louisville 59, Pitt 41 (1-14-2016 in Louisville)
TV: ACC Network Mike Gleason, Cory Alexander
Louisville Radio: 840 WHAS with Paul Rogers and Doug Ormay, Sirius 132, XM 195
Game Officials: Jamie Luckie, Les Jones, Michael Stephens

My Prediction

Last time out the Cards dominated the Pitt Panthers with defense.  It was the 1st outstanding defensive performance of the season. Chinanu Onuaku & Damion Lee carried Louisville offensively and held point guard James Robinson to just a single point. The one player for Pitt who stood out was PF Michael Young who had a big day against Jaylen Johnson & Ray Spalding.

Things should go better for Pitt in the Petersen Events Center.  The Panthers have also won two in a row (Wake & Syracuse) after losing 3 in a row (Virginia, Miami, North Carolina), but I’m not sure it will be good enough.  There is a slight concern about the availability of Ray Spalding (groin) as the Cards will already be without Anas Mahmoud & Mangok Mathiang.  If Spalding can’t go, Louisville will be extra sensitive to foul trouble of Chinanu Onuaku, but may be able to play Deng Adel down in the 4 spot.  Adel is fresh off a fabulous performance vs. Duke.

In the end, I see the Cards pulling it off again in one of the ACC’s most difficult environments.

Louisville 65, Pitt 59

Team Stats

Louisville Pittsburgh
Strength of Schedule (KenPom) 73rd 66th
Points Per Game 77.4 (63rd) 78.0 (53rd)
Avg Scoring Margin +16.6 (1st) +9.4 (36th)
Field Goal % 47.8% (24th) 46.4% (50th)
2-point FG% 52.5% (46th) 50.6% (101st)
3-point FG% 36.2% (101st) 36.9% (71st)
Free Throw % 68.6% (219th) 76.6% (10th)
Rebound Rate 56.0% (9th) 55.7% (12th)
Blocks Per Game 5.2 (22nd) 3.9 (105th)
Steals Per Game 7.3 (46th) 5.0 (287th)
Assists Per Game 13.7 (130th) 17.8 (7th)
Turnovers Per Game 11.9 (96th) 11.6 (70th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game 14.3 (52nd) 11.6 (264th)
Team Fouls Per Game 19.2 (149th) 17.4 (40th)
Opponent Shooting % 38.3% (7th) 43.8% (172nd)
Opponent 2-point FG% 41.9% (11th) 48.3% (150th)
Opponent 3-point FG% 31.8% (50th) 35.1% (196th)
Opponent Block Per Game 3.0 (76th) 3.3 (144th)
Opponent Steals Per Game 5.6 (91st) 5.8 (123rd)

Projected Starters

  Quentin Snider James Robinson
  6-1, 180, Soph 6-3, 198, Sr.
Minutes 28.8 30.7
Points 9.6 10.2
Field Goal % 39.1% 38.00%
3-point % 39.0% 34.40%
FT % 73.2% 76.10%
Rebounds 2.4 3.0
Assists 3.7 5.3
Steals 0.8 1.2
Blocks 0.0 0.3
Turnovers 1.3 1.2
Fouls 2.0 1.9
     
  Deng Adel Chris Jones
  6-7, 200, Fr. 6-6, 213, Soph
Minutes 9.2 18.1
Points 3.1 6.4
Field Goal % 42.90% 43.10%
3-point % 33.30% 31.30%
FT % 73.70% 70.80%
Rebounds 1.8 2.1
Assists 0.5 1.7
Steals 0.2 0.5
Blocks 0.1 0.3
Turnovers 1.0 1.0
Fouls 0.9 1.7
     
  Damion Lee Jamel Artis
  6-6, 200, Sr. 6-7, 220, Jr.
Minutes 33.0 28.8
Points 16.5 15.1
Field Goal % 45.0% 49.5%
3-point % 36.5% 36.9%
FT % 86.0% 77.4%
Rebounds 4.0 4.9
Assists 2.1 3.1
Steals 1.6 0.4
Blocks 0.0 0.3
Turnovers 1.7 2.4
Fouls 2.1 1.9
     
  Jaylen Johnson Michael Young
  6-9, 215, Soph 6-9, 235, Jr.
Minutes 17.1 29.2
Points 5.1 16.3
Field Goal % 46.1% 53.60%
3-point % 22.2% 37.50%
FT % 50.0% 80.10%
Rebounds 3.8 7.0
Assists 0.5 2.7
Steals 0.3 0.3
Blocks 0.4 0.5
Turnovers 0.7 2.5
Fouls 1.8 1.5
     
  Chinanu Onuaku Rafael Maia
  6-10, 230, Soph 6-9, 245, Sr.
Minutes 23.2 13.0
Points 9.7 2.3
Field Goal % 61.9% 44.9%
3-point % 0.0% 0.0%
FT % 59.2% 58.6%
Rebounds 8.6 4.0
Assists 1.3 0.6
Steals 0.8 0.5
Blocks 2.0 0.2
Turnovers 2.1 0.5
Fouls 2.9 1.9

Bench

  Donovan Mitchell Sterling Smith
  6-3, 210, Fr. 6-4, 185, Sr.
Minutes 20.0 20.3
Points 8.2 5.6
Field Goal % 46.70% 38.10%
3-point % 27.90% 42.90%
FT % 73.60% 92.30%
Rebounds 3.5 3.6
Assists 1.8 1.3
Steals 0.8 0.4
Blocks 0.1 0.2
Turnovers 1.0 0.7
Fouls 2.6 1
     
  Trey Lewis Cameron Johnson
  6-2, 190, Sr. 6-7, 185, Fr.
Minutes 27.8 10.0
Points 12.3 4.3
Field Goal % 44.00% 40.20%
3-point % 38.10% 41.40%
FT % 85.30% 83.30%
Rebounds 3.5 1.5
Assists 2.3 0.4
Steals 1.0 0.3
Blocks 0.1 0.2
Turnovers 1.8 0.3
Fouls 1.7 1.0
     
  David Levitch Sheldon Jeter
  6-3, 180, Jr. 6-8, 225, Jr.
Minutes 6.5 18.1
Points 2.1 8.2
Field Goal % 62.50% 53.2%
3-point % 60.00% 17.6%
FT % 72.70% 84.4%
Rebounds 0.7 4.9
Assists 0.4 0.8
Steals 0.3 0.7
Blocks 0.0 0.9
Turnovers 0.3 0.8
Fouls 0.6 2.1
     
  Ray Spalding Ryan Luther
  6-10, 210, Fr. 6-9, 215, Soph.
Minutes 17.4 12.5
Points 5.7 4.4
Field Goal % 55.40% 59.20%
3-point % 0.00% 36.40%
FT % 50.00% 64.30%
Rebounds 4.5 3.0
Assists 0.5 0.4
Steals 1.0 0.4
Blocks 0.7 0.4
Turnovers 1.0 0.7
Fouls 2.2 1.8
     
  Matz Stockman Alonzo Nelson-Ododa
  7-0, 240, Soph 6-9, 235, Sr.
Minutes 6.0 9.2
Points 3.1 1.6
Field Goal % 63.90% 47.20%
3-point % 0.00% 0.00%
FT % 50.00% 40.00%
Rebounds 1.9 1.8
Assists 0.2 0.1
Steals 0.0 0.0
Blocks 0.3 0.9
Turnovers 0.4 0.4
Fouls 1.0 1.4
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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