In what will be the 1st ever meeting between Louisville and Georgia, the 13th Annual Belk Bowl is one of the best bowl match-ups outside of the prestigious New Year’s 6.  The #13 Bulldogs vs. the #20 Cardinals will be the 1st Top 20 match-up in the bowl’s history at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC (home of the Carolina Panthers) televised on ESPN at 6:30 p.m.

Louisville will make its 19th all-time postseason bowl appearance, and it’s second in the Belk Bowl. The Cardinals played at the Belk Bowl in 2011, dropping a memorable 31-24 decision to NC State. The Cardinals, behind the play of Teddy Bridgewater, battled back from a 21-point deficit before falling by a touchdown. Louisville is making its third post-season appearance against an SEC foe in school history, having defeated Florida 33-23 in the 2013 Sugar Bowl, and defeating Alabama 34-7 in the 1991 Fiesta Bowl.

STAT COMPARISON

  Louisville Georgia
Scoring Offense (ppg) 32.6 (44th) 41.7 (8th)
Total Offense (ypg) 396.3 (71st) 454.9 (30th)
Passing Offense (ypg) 246.8 (50th) 199.9 (89th)
Rushing Offense (ypg) 149.42 (85th) 255.0 (13th)
Scoring Defense (ppg) 20.5 (18th) 21.3 (25th)
Total Defense (ypg) 293.3 (6th) 334.0 (18th)
Passing Defense (ypg) 199.6 (31st) 158.4 (2nd)
Rushing Defense (ypg) 93.67 (3rd) 175.58 (78th)
Punt Returns (ypr) 7.41 (71st) 10.83 (27th)
Kickoff Returns (ypr) 22.36 (38th) 22.67 (30th)
Opponent Punt Returns (ypr) 10.03 (97th) 4.70 (28th)
Opponent Kickoff Returns (ypr) 22.79 (104th) 19.64 (35th)
Punting (ypp) 40.06 (89th) 37.76 (113th)
Field Goal % 78.9% (35th) 72.2% (60th)
Opponent Field Goal % 87.0% (120th) 63.6% (30th)
First Downs (per game) 20.4 (75th) 23.0 (35th)
Opponent First Downs (per game) 14.8 (5th) 19.3 (38th)
Penalties (ypg) 49.8 (52nd) 42.3 (29th)
Turnover Margin (season) +5 (35th) +15 (4th)
Time of Possession 32:59.25 (12th) 28:57.58 (88th)
Sacks (per game) 3.25 (9th) 2.00 (70th)
Sacks Allowed (per game) 3.00 (109th) 1.25 (20th)
Tackles for Loss (per game) 6.92 (25th) 5.58 (79th)
Tackles for Loss Allowed (per game) 7.42 (118th) 5.33 (45th)
Interceptions (season) 25 (1st) 13 (31st)
Passes Defended (per game) 5.92 (11th) 3.58 (97th)
Fumbles Recovered (season) 3 (120th) 13 (15th)
Fumbles Forced (season) 6 (111th) 13 (29th)
Fumbles Lost (season) 16 (124th) 6 (21st)
Kicks/Punts Blocked (season) 1 (68th) 3 (18th)
3rd Down Conversions (%) 38.92% (78th) 47.26% (17th)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions (%) 28.25% (4th) 38.98% (57th)
4th Down Conversions (%) 52.63% (56th) 85.71% (1st)
Opponent 4th Down Conversions (%) 26.67% (7th) 64.71% (113th)
Red Zone Conversions (%) 83.64% (59th) 84.38% (52nd)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions (%) 75.00% (19th) 78.38% (35th)
RedZone TD Conversions (%) 67.27% (29th) 67.19% (30th)
Opponent Red Zone TD Conversions (%) 38.89% (4th) 67.57% (111th)
Kickoffs (ypk) 62.92 (19th) 61.00 (64th)
Plays 868 (66th) 800 (107th)
Yards Per Play 5.48 (70th) 6.82 (7th)

MY PREDICTION

Coming off the break, both teams should be fresh.  The Cards are without Michael Dyer and reserve offensive lineman Ryan Mack, Georgia is without wide receiver/kick returner Isaiah McKenzie, linebacker Leonard Floyd and Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo (Colorado State’s new Head Coach). But other than those important pieces, both teams should be fully healthy for the 1st time since the beginning of the season.

To begin the season, Georgia was amazing against Clemson and brought a dominating run game into the season against one of the premier run stopping teams in the country.  Louisville has been outstanding against the run all season, and while Georgia will be without Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb proved to be in a class of his own in his 1st year of college football which says a lot about the Georgia offensive line who placed 3 on the ALL-SEC team.  Still. UGA’s passing offense doesn’t scare anyone, particularly Louisville.  But even fully focused on stopping the Bulldog rushing attack isn’t enough……the run game is an elite group.  And so is Louisville’s rush defense who faced the likes of Duke Johnson, Kevin Parks, Karlos Williams, Dalvin Cook, and the rushing attack of Boston College. Who wins this match-up, I think wins the game.

There is also the matter of who plays Quarterback………Bobby Petrino won’t say who is his starter for the game and people we’ve talked to give compelling arguments for both Bolin and Bonnafon.  My feeling is that whoever starts won’t be the exclusive quarterback for the Cards.  But the priority in the passing game is game-changer DeVante Parker.  Georgia has the #2 Pass Defense in the country in 2014.  DeVante Parker is the country’s best wide receiver.  With 4 weeks between games, DeVante has had an opportunity to really get healthy after missing most of the season with a surgically repaired 5th metatarsal.  If Parker causes problems in the Georgia Secondary…..LOOKOUT.

I think Louisville’s offense is playing outstanding and reports out of practice are that the Cards have taken another step since the end of the season.  Louisville should score, Georgia will score.  Who stops who the most?  That’s the question in my mind.  Louisville’s tacklers should bbe fresh and that will help with Nick Chubb, but Georgia is fresh too and Brandon Radcliff really thrives on tired tacklers.  I think this will be a fantastic football game and I think we’ll see a good number of points but I’m not sure many will come as a result of great quarterback play.

I see this game as a 33-27 win for Louisville. You can read why below as I give you all the details.

ALL CONFERENCE PERFORMERS: 

Georgia

Nick Chubb (5-10, 228, Fr.) 1st Team ALL-SEC Running Back (AP & Coaches), AP SEC Freshman of the Year

Amarlo Herrera (6-2, 231, Sr.) 1st Team ALL-SEC Linebacker (AP), 2nd Team ALL-SEC Linebacker (Coaches)

Greg Pyke (6-6, 321, Soph) 2nd Team ALL-SEC Offensive Tackle (AP)

David Andrews (6-2, 294, Sr.) 2nd Team ALL-SEC Center (AP)

Ramik Wilson (6-2, 237, Sr.) 2nd Team ALL-SEC Linebacker (AP & Coaches)

Damian Swann (5-11, 180, Sr.) 2nd Team ALL-SEC Cornerback (AP & Coaches)

Marshall Morgan (6-3, 200, Jr.) Honorable Mention ALL-SEC Kicker (AP)

John Theus (6-6, 313, Jr.) Honorable Mention ALL-SEC Offensive Tackle (AP)

Leonard Floyd (6-4, 230, Soph) Honorable Mention ALL-SEC Linebacker (AP)

Quincy Mauger (6-0, 199, Soph) Honorable Mention ALL-SEC Safety (AP)

Louisville 

Gerod Holliman 1st Team ALL-ACC Safety (ACSMA & Coaches), Jim Thorpe Award Winner. 1st Team ALL-American (AP & several others)

Jamon Brown 2nd Team ALL-ACC Offensive Tackle (ACSMA & Coaches)

Lorenzo Mauldin 1st Team ALL-ACC Linebacker (Coaches), 2nd Team ALL-ACC Linebacker (ACSMA)

DeVante Parker 2nd Team ALL-ACC Wide Receiver (Coaches) 3rd Team ALL-ACC Wide Receiver (ACSMA)

Sheldon Rankins 3rd Team ALL-ACC Defensive End (ACSMA & Coaches)

Charles Gaines 3rd Team ALL-ACC Cornerback (ACSMA), Honorable Mention (Coaches)

Gerald Christian 3rd Team ALL-ACC Tight End (Coaches)

John Miller Honorable Mention ALL-ACC Offensive Guard (ACSMA & Coaches)

Jake Smith Honorable Mention ALL-ACC Offensive Guard (ACSMA)

BJ Dubose Honorable Mention ALL-ACC Defensive End (ACSMA)

Keith Kelsey Honorable Mention ALL-ACC Linebacker (ACSMA)

(*Atlantic Coast Sports Media Association)

Gerod Holliman Highlight Package

#HotRobbery: Gerod Holliman from @CrumsRevenge on Vimeo.

Louisville Offense vs. Georgia Defense

Louisville Offense

The Cards have played NINE Top 50 defenses in 2014, Georgia will be the 4th best defense of the season behind Clemson, Boston College, and Miami (FL).

At the end of the season the Cards strung together 4 consecutive 400+ yard games in a row, and in those games 3 were the most productive yardage totals of the season.  Louisville was able to do this using 3 different quarterbacks in the final 4 games of the season, losing Will Gardner vs. Boston College and Reggie Bonnafon in the 2nd quarter vs. Kentucky.  Louisville’s offense may have finished slow, but it finished FAST.

On average Louisville has gained about 23 yards more than its opponent typically allows, and failed to gain as much as allowed 3 different times in 2014..and just once past September 20th. Georgia allows 334 yards per game, this range suggests Louisville should be able to gain 355-357 yards.

Total Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 327.6 336 8.4 102.56%
Virginia 353.2 282 -71.2 79.84%
FIU 363.8 336 -27.8 92.36%
Wake Forest 369.3 421 51.7 114.00%
Syracuse 349.2 352 2.8 100.80%
Clemson 259.6 264 4.4 101.69%
NC State 373.1 369 -4.1 98.90%
Florida State 378.3 488 109.7 129.00%
Boston College 313.5 423 109.5 134.93%
Notre Dame 401.5 409 7.5 101.87%
Kentucky 406.9 472 65.1 116.00%
Georgia 334 Average 23.273 106.54%

Georgia Defense

Georgia played just three Top 50 offenses in 2014.  Louisville will be the 6th best offense the Bulldogs have played this season behind Clemson, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, & Auburn.

UGA allowed 400+ yards of offense 5 different times and under 300 yards of offense on 4 separate occasions.

Georgia limits opponents average offense by about 56 yards less than they are accustomed or 86.62%.  Louisville gains 396.3 yards per game, and based on UGA’s performance for the season the Cards should expect to gain 341-343 yards, slightly lower than what we found while examining the Louisville side.

Total Offense Georgia Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 410.1 291 -119.1 70.96%
South Carolina 450.8 447 -3.8 99.16%
Troy 363.3 216 -147.3 59.45%
Tennessee 363 401 38 110.47%
Vanderbilt 288.3 320 31.7 111.00%
Missouri 361.8 147 -214.8 40.63%
Arkansas 410.6 422 11.4 102.78%
Florida 370.2 445 74.8 120.21%
Kentucky 384.3 353 -31.3 91.86%
Auburn 489.2 292 -197.2 59.69%
Georgia Tech 468.8 463 -5.8 98.76%
Louisville 396.3 Average -55.76 86.62%

Louisville Passing Offense vs. Georgia Passing Defense

Louisville Passing Offense

The Cardinal aerial attack was very steady throughout 2014 despite a great deal of Quarterback instability due to injury.  Will Gardner started the 1st three FBS games before going down with a knee injury vs. FIU.  Reggie Bonnafon came in relief during Virginia and started 3 consecutive games (Wake, Syracuse, and Clemson) before being replaced by Will Gardner during the Clemson game.  Will got a huge lift when DeVante Parker returned to the lineup against NC State, giving the Cards a more potent big play threat than it had before.  Gardner started against NC State and Boston College before going down at BC for the season with a knee injury.  Reggie Bonnafon took the reins and was FANTASTIC against Boston College and Notre Dame. Bonnafon was injured early against Kentucky and was replaced by Kyle Bolin who TORCHED the Wildcats.

On the season, Louisville faced SEVEN Top 50 Passing Defenses, Georgia will be the best Passing D yet and is 2nd in the nation at yards allowed through the air.  The closest comparison was Clemson, who finished the 2014 regular season as the #3 passing defense.  Reggie struggled vs. the Tigers, and Will Gardner came in and made some plays.  Louisville was able to gain 212 yards without DeVante Parker, without Aaron Epps at Tackle, without Michael Dyer in the rushing attack, and with Reggie Bonnafon making his 3rd career start (2nd road).

Louisville gained 300+ yards on three separate occasions and were able to exceed opponents passing defense numbers by 38 yards per game or 119%.  Against Georgia’s 158.4 yards allowed passing statistics suggest that UofL will gain 189-196 yards against the Bulldogs.

Passing Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 184.1 206 21.9 111.90%
Virginia 232.5 203 -29.5 87.31%
FIU 203.3 324 120.7 159.37%
Wake Forest 186.6 206 19.4 110.40%
Syracuse 209.9 174 -35.9 82.90%
Clemson 161.9 212 50.1 130.95%
NC State 197.5 203 5.5 102.78%
Florida State 218.2 330 111.8 151.24%
Boston College 218 257 39 117.89%
Notre Dame 239.8 180 -59.8 75.06%
Kentucky 215.8 389 173.2 180.26%
Georgia 158.4 Average 37.855 119.10%

Georgia Passing Defense

The Bulldogs were EXCELLENT in patrolling the air in 2014 and finished as the #2 Passing D in 2014.  Yet UGA played just TWO Top 50 Passing Offenses in 2014, both in the 1st two FBS meetings (Clemson, South Carolina).  Louisville (50th) will be the 3rd Top 50 passing offense of the season and the 1st since September.

UGA held opponents under 200 yards passing on SEVEN different occasions vs. FBS opponents and under 100+ yards THREE TIMES (Missouri, Florida, and Georgia Tech).  It is interesting that of the 3 sub 100-yard allowed passing games that Georgia lost two of those (Florida and GT).

Georgia managed to limit each of its opponents to 36 yards less per game than opponents typically gained through the air or just 83% of their average.  Against Louisville’s 246.8 yards per game passing the suggested range for Louisville to gain is 203-211, a slightly higher range than found above.

Passing Offense Georgia Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 257.1 203 -54.1 78.96%
South Carolina 281.4 271 -10.4 96.30%
Troy 198.8 169 -29.8 85.01%
Tennessee 228 284 56 124.56%
Vanderbilt 179.1 188 8.9 104.97%
Missouri 196.2 97 -99.2 49.44%
Arkansas 190.3 296 105.7 155.54%
Florida 180.7 27 -153.7 14.94%
Kentucky 231.2 139 -92.2 60.12%
Auburn 230.7 142 -88.7 61.55%
Georgia Tech 135.2 64 -71.2 47.34%
Louisville 246.8 Average -35.75 83.14%

Louisville Rushing Offense vs. Georgia Rushing Defense

Louisville Rushing Offense

The Cardinal Rushing attack was back and forth throughout the 2014 season.  The Cards gained over 200+ yards twice, over 150+ yards six times, and was held under 100 yards on 4 occasions.  It was an oddball rushing year for the Cards who started out the season riding Dominique Brown as the primary ball carrier, losing Corvin Lamb due to injury versus Clemson, waiting on Michael Dyer for half the season, and watched Brandon Radcliff emerge as the bell cow.

Now with Dyer out for the Bowl game the Cards will focus on Brandon Radcliff, Dominique Brown, and LJ Scott as the primary ball carriers for UofL.

Louisville faced FIVE Rushing Defenses in the Top 50 in 2014.  Georgia’s 175.58 yards allowed per game is 77th and will just be tied for the 9th best (of 12) Rushing Defense UofL will play.  UofL gained about 14 yards fewer than what opponents usually allowed in 2014 and the stat suggest that the Cards will gain 161-162 yards on the ground in Charlotte.

Rushing Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 143.5 130 -13.5 90.59%
Virginia 120.67 79 -41.67 65.47%
FIU 160.42 12 -148.42 7.48%
Wake Forest 182.67 215 32.33 117.70%
Syracuse 139.25 178 38.75 127.83%
Clemson 97.67 52 -45.67 53.24%
NC State 175.58 166 -9.58 94.54%
Florida State 160.08 158 -2.08 98.70%
Boston College 95.5 166 70.5 173.82%
Notre Dame 161.67 229 67.33 141.65%
Kentucky 191.17 83 -108.17 43.42%
Georgia 175.58 Average -14.5618181818 92.22%

Georgia Rushing Defense

UGA’s 77th ranked rushing defense struggled in the latter half of the season, giving up 418 yards to Florida and 399 yards to Georgia Tech.  The Bulldogs faced four Top 50 rushing offenses in 2014, Louisville will be the 9th best rushing attack Georgia will see in 2014.

Based on the Cardinals 149.42 yards per game on the ground the suggestion is that UofL will gain 129-135 which is much lower than what above suggestion.

Rushing Offense Georgia Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 153 88 -65 57.52%
South Carolina 169.42 176 6.58 103.88%
Troy 164.5 47 -117.5 28.57%
Tennessee 135 117 -18 86.67%
Vanderbilt 109.25 132 22.75 120.82%
Missouri 165.62 50 -115.62 30.19%
Arkansas 220.25 126 -94.25 57.21%
Florida 189.45 418 228.55 220.64%
Kentucky 153.17 214 60.83 139.71%
Auburn 258.5 150 -108.5 58.03%
Georgia Tech 333.62 399 65.38 119.60%
Louisville 149.42 Average -20.016 90.32%

Georgia Offense vs. Louisville Defense 

Georgia Total Offense

The Bulldogs faced 5 defenses in the Top 50 in 2014.  Louisville will be the 2nd best Total Defensive team UGA has played……Clemson was destroyed by UGA as Todd Gurley and company ran all over an excellent Clemson Defense.  We’ll breakdown, Run vs. Pass in a later entry.

Georgia gained 400+ yards in 8 of 11 FBS games, and went over 500+ twice.  Georgia’s offense performed well all season and typically gained about 71 yards more than opponents usually allow or 121% of that total.  The Bulldogs played some of its best offense against the top defenses on its schedule, and were held BELOW its usual total only twice…..versus South Carolina & Georgia Tech, both games were losses.

The Florida game is curious as UGA gained 460 yards, +149 of what the Gators usually allow….and yet Georgia still managed to lose.  That’s the outlier here.

Georgia’s average performance against Louisville’s 293.3 yards allowed suggests an expected yardage total of 356-364 yards in the Belk Bowl.  UGA’s performance against top defenses suggests a different trend, especially since Georgia has not been held to a total that low all season.

Total Defense Georgia Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 259.6 459 199.40 176.81%
South Carolina 433.6 408 -25.60 94.10%
Troy 454 547 93.00 120.48%
Tennessee 359.9 436 76.10 121.14%
Vanderbilt 402.1 445 42.90 110.67%
Missouri 343.8 379 35.20 110.24%
Arkansas 345.4 386 40.60 111.75%
Florida 311 460 149.00 147.91%
Kentucky 406.9 559 152.10 137.38%
Auburn 388.7 412 23.30 105.99%
Georgia Tech 396.4 388 -8.40 97.88%
Louisville 293.3 Average 70.691 121.31%

Louisville Total Defense 

Louisville faced just three Top 50 defenses in 2014. Georgia will be the best Offense Louisville will see this season. The next closest teams to Georgia in offensive production that Louisville has played would be Notre Dame who the Cards defeated and held to almost 110 yards under the Irish average.  The next after that was Florida State who Louisville did a tremendous job against in the 1st half, and then collapsed in the 2nd half while allowing 364 yards.

Louisville did not allow 300+ yards during its first six FBS meetings.  In the final 5 games the Cards allowed at least 327 yards in each game with the season-worst total against FSU. The Seminoles are the only team Louisville allowed an opponent to gain more than its average.  In the other 2 losses Louisville allowed just 229 yards (and no offensive TDs) to Clemson, and just 285 yards vs. Virginia….both of which still puzzle Cardinal fans.

Louisville’s average performance against Georgia’s 454.9 yards of offense per game suggests that the Bulldogs should be able to gain 352-377, which extends the range of expected offense more than the Georgia offense evaluation.  Of the two I’d side on the high end of the range, and perhaps even outside of it. But the Cardinal Defense is reportedly finally healthy, which is extremely key vs. Georgia with tackling and coming off blocks a major priority.  We’ll which unit wins out in Charlotte, these are two very successful groups.

Total Offense Louisvile Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 431 244 -187 56.61%
Virginia 374.2 285 -89.2 76.16%
FIU 293.2 205 -88.2 69.92%
Wake Forest 216.3 100 -116.3 46.23%
Syracuse 329.9 260 -69.9 78.81%
Clemson 410.1 229 -181.1 55.84%
NC State 402 351 -51 87.31%
Florida State 434.7 574 139.3 132.05%
Boston College 383.8 332 -51.8 86.50%
Notre Dame 444.6 335 -109.6 75.35%
Kentucky 384.3 327 -57.3 85.09%
Georgia 454.9 Average -78.373 77.26%

Georgia Passing Offense vs. Louisville Passing Defense

Georgia Passing Offense 

The Bulldogs’ aerial attack ranks 88th at 199.9 yards per game, UGA gained over 200+ yards through the air just 3 times during 2014.   Also Georgia surpassed  its opponents average passing yards allowed just twice (vs. Florida & Kentucky) and in the other 9 FBS meetings Georgia gained LESS than what opponents usually allow through the air.

Georgia faced FIVE Top 50 Passing Defenses in 2014, Louisville will be the Sixth Top 50 Passing Defense of the season for the Bulldogs. The Cards will be the 4th best aerial defense to play UGA.  Georgia typically gained about 20 yards fewer than what opponents allow or 91%.  Based on Louisville’s 199.6 yards allowed through the air, the stats suggest that Georgia will gain 179-182 yards passing vs. Louisville in the Belk Bowl.

Passing Defense Georgia Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 161.9 131 -30.9 80.91%
South Carolina 219.2 191 -28.2 87.14%
Troy 207.9 180 -27.9 86.58%
Tennessee 197.8 147 -50.8 74.32%
Vanderbilt 218.3 202 -16.3 92.53%
Missouri 208.5 169 -39.5 81.06%
Arkansas 221.4 179 -42.4 80.85%
Florida 194.2 319 124.8 164.26%
Kentucky 215.8 254 38.2 117.70%
Auburn 239.2 123 -116.2 51.42%
Georgia Tech 227.6 194 -33.6 85.24%
Louisville 199.6 Average -20.255 91.09%

Louisville Passing Defense

The Cardinal aerial defense finished #32 in the nation in 2014 and featured the Jim Thorpe Award winner Gerod Holliman.  Holliman is currently tied for the NCAA Record for Interceptions in a season with 14.

UofL allowed 4 of 11 FBS teams to gain 200+ yards passing, and just one team over 300+ (also 400+) in the entire season.  The Cards faced FOUR Top 50 Passing Offenses in 2014 and the Bulldogs will be the 7th best passing attack Louisville has seen in 2014.

Against UGA’s 199.9 yards gained through the air in 2014, and Louisville’s average of holding opponents around 25 yards less than average or 89%, the suggested range for UGA’s passing attack vs. UofL in the Belk bowl is 174-178 yards, just slightly lower than what we discovered above.

Passing Offense Louisvile Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 251.1 174 -77.1 69.30%
Virginia 236.4 171 -65.4 72.34%
FIU 168 117 -51 69.64%
Wake Forest 176.3 122 -54.3 69.20%
Syracuse 184.1 201 16.9 109.18%
Clemson 257.1 157 -100.1 61.07%
NC State 196 223 27 113.78%
Florida State 299.8 401 101.2 133.76%
Boston College 132 166 34 125.76%
Notre Dame 293.8 236 -57.8 80.33%
Kentucky 231.2 176 -55.2 76.12%
Georgia 199.9 Average -25.618 89.13%

Georgia Rushing Offense vs. Louisville Rushing Defense

Something has to give in this match-up, Georgia is an excellent Rushing Offense and Louisville is an outstanding Rushing Defense.  In our opinion this is a top flight match-up.  Whoever wins this part of the game….wins the game.

Georgia Rushing Offense

The Bulldogs were the 13th best rushing offense in 2014 averaging 255 yards on the ground per game. That is a HUGE number, and UGA did that largely without the services of all-world Running Back Todd Gurley.

Georgia played FIVE Top 50 Rushing Defenses in 2014 and Louisville will be the best Rushing Defense yet for the Bulldogs.  But the last time they played a team even in the same category as Louisville’s Rush D, Clemson, the Bulldogs MAULED the Tigers and gained 328 yards in the season opener on the ground.  Clemson finished #7 in the nation in Rushing Defense DESPITE that total allowed in its first game.

Georgia gained 200+ yards in 9 of 11 FBS games, and went over 300+ in 3 of 11 games.  That is huge and consistent.

On the year Georgia gained 97 yards more on the ground than its opponents usually allowed or 169.24% of the average. Against Louisville’s 93.67 yards allowed per game, the stats suggest that UGA will gain 158-191.  Only two teams fell into that range against the Cards in 2014 (FSU and BC).

Rushing Defense Georgia Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Clemson 97.67 328 230.33 335.82%
South Carolina 214.42 217 2.58 101.20%
Troy 246.08 367 120.92 149.14%
Tennessee 162.08 289 126.92 178.31%
Vanderbilt 183.75 243 59.25 132.24%
Missouri 135.31 210 74.69 155.20%
Arkansas 124 207 83 166.94%
Florida 116.82 141 24.18 120.70%
Kentucky 191.17 305 113.83 159.54%
Auburn 149.5 289 139.5 193.31%
Georgia Tech 168.77 194 25.23 114.95%
Louisville 93.67 Average 97.52 169.24%

Louisville Rushing Defense

UofL’s ground defense finished 2014 as the #3 Run D in the nation, following up from its #1 Run Defense performance in 2013.  The Cards held opponents under 100 yards rushing in 6 of 11 FBS games and under 150 yards in 8 of 11.

The Cards played just THREE Top 50 rushing offenses in 2014 and held all three of those teams under its average.  In fact, only Florida State was able to gain more than its average on the season versus Louisville.

Louisville held opponents under 52 yards of its average on the season or to just 58% of its usual average.  Against Georgia’s 255 yards per game rushing the suggested stat range in the Belk Bowl is 149-202 yards on the ground, which is a much wider range than what we found above.  Who wins this match-up wins the game.

Rushing Offense Louisville Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 179.92 70 -109.92 38.91%
Virginia 137.75 114 -23.75 82.76%
FIU 125.17 88 -37.17 70.30%
Wake Forest 39.92 -22 -61.92 -55.11%
Syracuse 145.83 59 -86.83 40.46%
Clemson 153 72 -81 47.06%
NC State 206 128 -78 62.14%
Florida State 134.85 173 38.15 128.29%
Boston College 251.83 166 -85.83 65.92%
Notre Dame 150.83 99 -51.83 65.64%
Kentucky 153.17 151 -2.17 98.58%
Georgia 255 Average -52.752 58.63%

PRE-GAME Interviews

Louisville Football’s Georgia Natives

Much has been made over Louisville’s relationship in recruiting with the State of Florida.  But Georgia has been a MAJOR recruiting ground for Louisville over the years.  Now with the Cards playing the University of Georgia in Charlotte, NC for the 2014 Belk Bowl, UofL has a chance to make an impact in the state again.  Charlotte is just 2 hours from the Georgia Border.

Louisville has 3 transfers that will be eligible to play next season in Shaq Wiggins, Josh Harvey-Clemons, and Ja’Quay Williams.  Wiggins and Harvey Clemons actually transferred from Georgia after last season, with Williams coming from Texas A&M.  These three are also the only 3 players on Louisville’s roster from the state of Georgia that also sported offers from the Bulldogs.  Starters Will Gardner (injured), Aaron Epps, Lorenzo Mauldin, DeAngelo Brown, and Sheldon Rankins all are Georgia Natives with HUGE impacts on the Cardinal program that were not offered a scholarship with UGA.  It will be interesting to see how this group plays on December 30th in Bank of America Stadium.

Georgia Natives on Louisville Roster Hometown Georgia Offer?
Pat Thomas Atlanta, GA No
Shaq Wiggins Tyrone, GA Yes (UGA Transfer)
Will Gardner Douglas, GA No
Ja’Quay Williams Tyrone, GA Yes (A&M Transfer)
Josh Harvey-Clemons Valdosta, GA Yes (UGA Transfer)
Aaron Epps Tucker, GA No
Lorenzo Mauldin Atlanta, GA No
Henry Famuerwa Powder Spring, GA No
DeAngelo Brown Savannah, GA No
Sheldon Rankins Covington, GA No

*Note Georgia does not have a player from the city of Louisville or the state of Kentucky on its roster.

FAN GUIDE

December 28th: 

Belk Bowl 5K    2:00 p.m. at Wells Fargo Plaza (310 S. Tryon St.) Fans can tour Charlotte by foot during this fun run, with food and awards at a reception afterwards.Proceeds will benefit Levine Children’s Hospital.  Registration & Details can be found here.

December 29th: 

FCA Belk Bowl Breakfast (Charlotte Convention Center) 8:00 a.m. Keynote presentation by Dan Reeves. For more information contact DSheppard@FCA.org

Belk Bowl Pep Rally (BB&T Ballpark) 5:00 p.m. – 7:00 pm. Both team marching bands will perform, as well as musicians from Belk’s Southern Musician Showcase (Laney Jones and Christian Lopez Band), concluding with a fireworks display. This event is free and open to public.

Giveaways include Belk Bowl tickets, seat upgrades, stadium blankets, t-shirts, and more will be given away throughout the event. Plus, if you are one of the first 500 fans in attendance you will receive a special Belk Bowl gift.

Official UofL Fan Party (NASCAR Hall of Fame, 400 E. Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd)  $30

Belk Bowl Fan Central (EpiCentre) 210 E. Trade Street  7:00 – 11:00 p.m. The official fan party of the Belk Bowl, EpiCentre will be THE place to be the night before the game. In addition to bars, restaurants, and attractions, the courtyard will host cheerleaders, bands, and mascots to get fans ready for the big game. This event is free and open to public.

December 30th: 

The Belk Bowl Tailgate Tour ALL DAY: is a large-scale, interactive football challenge, that gives fans a chance to put their football skills to the test, win Belk Bowl premium items and the chance to win a $100 Belk gift card!  Rules can be found here. 

Belk Bowl FanFest  Noon – 5:30 p.m. Outside South End of Bank of America Stadium. A fan favorite, the Belk Bowl FanFest offers the perfect combination of family fun, great food and entertainment with live musical acts, interactive games, face painting, official bowl and school merchandise sales. Cheerleaders and pep bands are sure to stir school spirit. Miranda Lambert will headline the event at 4:00 p.m.  This event is free and open to public.

Jackie Venson 12:20 p.m. Concert Begins at the Belk Bowl Fan Fest.  This event is free and open to public.

Christian Lopez Band 1:30 p.m. Concert Begins at the Belk Bowl Fan Fest.  This event is free and open to public.

Miranda Lambert  4:00 Concert Begins at the Belk Bowl Fan Fest.  This event is free and open to public.

Belk Bowl Kickoff 6:30, Bank of America Stadium.  Louisville vs. Georgia

 

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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