Location: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium
Surface: Field Turf
Forecast: 70 degrees, Showers Possible
Game Time: 12:30 10-24-2015
CARDMARCH: 10:15 a.m. – Central Ave. Overpass
Line: Louisville -7.5
Series History: Louisville leads 4-3
Last Time: Louisville 38, Boston College 19 11-8-2014

Attending

A few tickets remain and can be purchased here.

CardMarch will happen in its usual location from Central through the tunnel & into Gate 4. Gate 4 will remain open but fans who typically use Gate 4 that require ADA entrances will need to utilize Gates 3 or Gate 5 from the South during the 2015 season as the Thornton’s Academic Center for Excellence Construction is under construction and pathways will be a compacted gravel surface. All entrances EXCEPT Gate 4 will be available for patrons who need assistance.

Additionally, PJCS will continue to provide golf carts in the Green & Bronze lots to & from the stadium. Fans who require assistance should make their way to the West drive lane of the Green/Bronze lots to find the Accessibility Shuttle Service. After the game, the Shuttle Service will assist patrons at Gate 5.

Listening

The broadcast will be available on Louisville Sports Properties and the Tune In Mobile App.  The legendary voice of the Cards Paul Rogers will provide play-by-play with Craig Swabek providing color and Doug Ormay from the sideline.  The Louisville broadcast will also be available on Sirius Channel 132 and XM Channel 204.

Watching

The television broadcast of Louisville vs. Boston College will be on the ACC Network.  Locally on WHAS 11.  Tim Brant will provide play-by-play with David Archer providing color and Roddy Jones on the sideline.  Fans can also tune in on the WATCHESPN app live and later for replay.

Stat Comparison

  Louisville Boston College
Strength of Schedule  3rd  69th
Scoring Offense (ppg) 26.3 (83rd) 20.1 (113th)
Total Offense (ypg) 391.0 (76th) 312.0 (122nd)
Passing Offense (ypg) 238.2 (61st) 105.9 (124th)
Rushing Offense (ypg) 152.83 (92nd) 206.14 (27th)
Scoring Defense (ppg) 23.7 (49th) 11.0 (4th)
Total Defense (ypg) 354.8 (37th) 196.3 (1st)
Passing Defense (ypg) 210.3 (51st) 144.6 (5th)
Rushing Defense (ypg) 144.50 (45th) 51.71 (1st)
Punt Returns (ypr) 9.00 (57th) 9.43 (52nd)
Kickoff Returns (ypr) 23.13 (38th) 21.79 (55th)
Opponent Punt Returns (ypr) 2.8 (11th) 1.80 (10th)
Opponent Kickoff Returns (ypr) 26.83 (120th) 20.35 (56th)
Punting (ypp) 41.86 (54th) 42.55 (44th)
Field Goal % 60.0% (107th) 42.9% (125th)
Opponent Field Goal % 80% (85th) 70.0% (51st)
First Downs (per game) 22.2 (41st) 16.7 (117th)
Opponent First Downs (per game) 18.8 (46th) 11.4 (1st)
Penalties (ypg) 58.8 (74th) 55.3 (66th)
Turnover Margin (season) EVEN (71st) +1 (56th)
Time of Possession 29:57.30 (73rd) 31:56.57 (27th)
Sacks (per game) 2.00 (60th) 2.71 (27th)
Sacks Allowed (per game) 367 (125th) 1.14 (17th)
Tackles for Loss (per game) 5.83 (76th) 8.71 (7th)
Tackles for Loss Allowed (per game) 7.00 (101st) 7.71 (117th)
Interceptions (season) 9 (21st) 6 (46th)
Passes Defended (per game) 4.00 (71st) 3.14 (107th)
Fumbles Recovered (season) 3 (83rd) 3 (83rd)
Fumbles Forced (season) 2 (114th) 5 (58th)
Fumbles Lost (season) 4 (52nd) 5 (68th)
Kicks/Punts Blocked (season) 0 (last) 2 (12th)
3rd Down Conversions (%) 44.32% (30th) 34.62% (102nd)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions (%) 40.45% (86th) 21.00% (3rd)
4th Down Conversions (%) 55.56% (52nd) 50.00% (65th)
Opponent 4th Down Conversions (%) 28.57% (18th) 25.00% (12th)
Red Zone Conversions (%) 80.77% (91st) 73.68% (116th)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions (%) 92.31% (113th) 72.73% (14th)
RedZone TD Conversions (%) 61.54% (68th) 57.89% (83rd)
Opponent Red Zone TD Conversions (%) 53.85% (45th) 36.36% (8th)
Kickoffs (ypk) 63.55 (22nd) 60.48 (94th)
Plays 426 (91st) 461 (66th)
Yards Per Play 5.51 (79th) 4.74 (118th)

My Prediction

I don’t think either team scores a lot, but I do think the Cards are more explosive and for that reason I’m going with the Cards to win a rock fight:Defensively Louisville should be able to shut down the Eagles and set the tone….but is their heart & mind committed to the contest?  I don’t question the talent….and I don’t question the coaching.  But the execution has left a lot to be desired.  It’s college so no one plays a perfect game but Louisville hasn’t played up to its own potential yet this season.  Boston College shouldn’t be able to drive the field and points will also come at a premium.

Louisville 13, Boston College 6

Louisville Offense vs. Boston College Defense

Louisville’s offense has had its struggles due to youth and inexperience throughout 2015.  When things look like they might be coming together for the UofL attack, something happens.  A bad snap, a hold, a missed block, a missed hole, a drop, a sack, a fumble, a pick.  It’s been a lack of consistency. Against Florida State Louisville had instances just like that…..but fewer.  Even though it was a loss the Cards probably played their best offensive game vs. the Noles.

To beat Boston College, the Cards are going to have to play another version of its best offense.  To put it mildly, the BC Defense is OUTSTANDING.  It’s hard to kind of quantify just how special the Eagles Front 7 is and how well they play together but no one can run the football on Boston College.  Dalvin Cook, for example, only gained 54 yards.

Boston College has played such good defense in 6 of 7 games that last week BC gave up nearly 600 yards of offense (the worst performance of the year) and STILL held the crown for the #1 defense in the nation.  Last week vs. Clemson signals that Clemson might be really turning it on OR it could signal that the Eagles are packing it in on the year after losing all 4 conference games thus far.  BC lost to Wake Forest 3-0…..enough to demoralize even the most mentally tough units.

For Louisville, the Cards are going to have to try and run the ball to just keep BC honest.  But it would be foolish to try and go behind the Guards.  Instead UofL probably needs to try and get behind its true freshman tackles and see if they can get someone to make a mistake for a seam.  Louisville is going to give up TFLs, they are going to give up sacks.  But they need to make this defense WORK and force the Eagles to expend energy in the early part of the game in pursuit.  The worst that can happen is Louisville gift away mistakes, turnovers for scores.  In a lot of possessions the best result will be for Louisville to punt with Josh Appleby….and the Cards (and the fans) need to be OK with that in this game.

Lamar Jackson is going to have to throw the football, but he needs to only take what is there.  He can’t afford to not see the blitz and risk a fumble.  Boston College’s offense isn’t talented enough to drive the field so turnovers will give BC its best scoring opportunity of the game.  It won’t take a great deal of points to win this game Lamar Jackson has to prove to be patient and receivers need to continue to make catches.  Boston College has played almost exclusively ‘Man Coverage’ this year and if BC continues to do that vs. Lamar Jackson they may pay the piper.  However, if the Eagles Front 7 can contain Lamar on its own it could be a long day…….but no one should be able to play MAN for an entire game vs. Lamar, it’s theoretical suicide.

Chances will be few and UofL has to make the most of them but Boston College chasing Lamar Jackson all day will test the Eagles’ depth.

Boston College Offense vs. Louisville Defense

Boston College’s Offense is the inverse of its Defense……it’s bad.  Losing running back John Hilliman and Quarterback Darius Wade have been devastating for the Eagles.  This has forced BC to use several freshman before they are prepared.  The Eagles use A LOT of running backs.  Boston College’s offense is based on the run game and accounts for roughly two-thirds of their offense and are 27th in Rushing Offense…..but it has more to do with the quantity of runs rather than the quality of those as BC is just 58th in yards per rush at 4.4 ypc (for example UofL is 4.11 ypc).

Boston College splits reps at QB with two freshman Jeff Smith and Troy Flutie (former BC Heisman winner Doug Flutie’s nephew). Smith as a passer is……(how do we say this kindly?)………pretty bad.  Eagles’ fans may have some expletives to share about Jeff’s passing thus far, but he’s a freshman….and he can REALLY RUN.

Part of the problem for Boston College is an all new offensive line from a year ago in addition to being without Wade or Hilliman.

For Louisville this is a game the defense should dominate.  BC tries to be physical in the run game and they have some success getting first downs, but never enough to drive the field or break big plays.  The Cards are coming off a 2nd half vs. Florida State that left the fans and coaching staff express criticism on effort.  This Louisville defense is too talented to put forth the effort they did in the 2nd half vs. Florida State & Auburn…and the entire game vs. Houston.  Bottomline there are 12, maybe 13 games in a season and if a defense plays soft for a stretch, that’s just who they are SOFT.

Personally I don’t think UofL’s D is soft….but they haven’t played a focused brand of football and haven’t tackled well during large portions of the season.  Bottom line, UofL’s defense hasn’t played to its talent level except for one game this season. The 2nd half vs. FSU was disappointing but the Noles have weapons…….Boston College doesn’t.  The Cards should be able to control the game defensively, but if they don’t that signals an even bigger problem that will permeate throughout the season & off-season as well.

As long as the Cardinal defense doesn’t find itself in a trouble spot due to an offensive turnover or a special teams bust they should be able to keep Boston College off the scoreboard for the balance of the contest.  Boston College isn’t going to become a well-oiled machine over-night offensively and even bad defenses have slowed the Eagles this year.  Louisville has played fairly average over the course of the year defensively and if they step up their game even a little bit the Cards can set the tone on D and gain some confidence in the 2nd half of the season.

Pre-Game Interviews/Media Sessions

 

90 Second Preview

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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