Louisville Scoring Offense Evaluation

Scoring Defense Louisville Scored vs. Deviation from Avg. % Scored of Avg
Miami (FL) 23.4 31 7.6 132.48%
Virginia 24.1 21 -3.1 87.14%
FIU 24.8 34 9.2 137.10%
Wake Forest 25.1 20 -5.1 79.68%
Syracuse 24 28 4 116.67%
Clemson 17.6 17 -0.6 96.59%
NC State 28.8 30 1.2 104.17%
Florida State 22.3 31 8.7 139.01%
Boston College 21.7 38 16.3 175.12%
Notre Dame 27.5 31 3.5 112.73%
Kentucky 30.1 Average 4.17 118.07%

UofL scores about 4 points or 118% of what opponents have allowed in 2014.  Louisville has exceeded the average points allowed in 7 of 10 FBS games.

Kentucky allows more points per game than any team Louisville has faced in 2014.

Kentucky Scoring Defense Evaluation

Scoring Offense Kentucky Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Scored of Avg
Ohio 20.2 3 -17.2 14.85%
Florida 31.6 36 4.4 113.92%
Vanderbilt 17.2 7 -10.2 40.70%
South Carolina 34.8 38 3.2 109.20%
UL Monroe 20.5 14 -6.5 68.29%
LSU 28 41 13 146.43%
Mississippi State 39 45 6 115.38%
Missouri 29.3 20 -9.3 68.26%
Georgia 43.3 63 19.7 145.50%
Tennessee 27.9 50 22.1 179.21%
Louisville 31.5 Average 2.520 100.17%

UK has allowed teams to basically meet their average production on the scoreboard in 2014.  The Cats allow 2.5 more points per game than teams usually score, but Kentucky has held 4 teams (Ohio, Vandy, Missouri, and Monroe) to less than their average points scored.

Louisville will be the 5th highest scoring team Kentucky will face in 2014 just behind Florida (also South Carolina, Miss State,  & Georgia).

Louisville Total Offense Evaluation

Total Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 324.6 336 11.4 103.51%
Virginia 345.9 282 -63.9 81.53%
FIU 363.8 336 -27.8 92.36%
Wake Forest 362.9 421 58.1 116.01%
Syracuse 353.5 352 -1.5 99.58%
Clemson 252.4 264 11.6 104.60%
NC State 388.2 369 -19.2 95.05%
Florida State 379.2 488 108.8 128.69%
Boston College 329.6 423 93.4 128.34%
Notre Dame 385.5 409 23.5 106.10%
Kentucky 401 Average 19.44 105.58%

The Cards have actually gained about 19 yards more or 105% of what opposing defenses usually have allowed on the season.  Louisville has gained 400+ yards on offense for 3 consecutive games in a row.

Kentucky is the worst defensive team that Louisville has faced in 2014.

Kentucky Total Defense Evaluation

Total Offense Kentucky Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 371.8 223 -148.8 59.98%
Florida 379 532 153 140.37%
Vanderbilt 289.8 139 -150.8 47.96%
South Carolina 461 500 39 108.46%
UL Monroe 350.2 264 -86.2 75.39%
LSU 373.6 423 49.4 113.22%
Mississippi State 511.7 542 30.3 105.92%
Missouri 360.7 320 -40.7 88.72%
Georgia 461 559 98 121.26%
Tennessee 372.2 511 138.8 137.29%
Louisville 389.4 Average 8.2 99.86%

UK’s Total Defense has really mirrored the performance of its opponents in 2014.  The two worst performances of the season came vs. Florida, and then in the Cats most recent match-up two weeks ago vs. Tennessee.  The best performances were vs. Vanderbilt & Ohio in the beginning of the season.

Louisville’s offense will be the 4th best offense Kentucky will face in 2014.

Louisville Passing Offense Evaluation

Passing Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 188.6 206 17.4 109.23%
Virginia 232.3 203 -29.3 87.39%
FIU 203.3 324 120.7 159.37%
Wake Forest 176.9 206 29.1 116.45%
Syracuse 214.5 174 -40.5 81.12%
Clemson 151.5 212 60.5 139.93%
NC State 199.4 203 3.6 101.81%
Florida State 230.4 330 99.6 143.23%
Boston College 231.8 257 25.2 110.87%
Notre Dame 227.8 180 -47.8 79.02%
Kentucky 200 Average 23.85 112.84%

UofL has faced six Top 45 Pass Defenses in 2014.  Kentucky will be the 7th.  The Cards have excelled despite the good defenses and gain about 23.85 yards more per game through the air than those defenses usually allow or 112.84%.

Kentucky Passing Defense Evaluation

Passing Offense Kentucky Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 209.1 149 -60.1 71.26%
Florida 181.9 295 113.1 162.18%
Vanderbilt 181.8 85 -96.8 46.75%
South Carolina 281.9 218 -63.9 77.33%
UL Monroe 276.1 187 -89.1 67.73%
LSU 169.1 120 -49.1 70.96%
Mississippi State 264.9 216 -48.9 81.54%
Missouri 183.1 164 -19.1 89.57%
Georgia 200.5 254 53.5 126.68%
Tennessee 240.4 297 56.6 123.54%
Louisville 233.9 Average -20.38 91.76%

The Cats have done very well against the pass in 2014 and allow 20 yards fewer per game than opponents allow or 91.76% of the total.

Louisville will be the 5th best passing team the Wildcats have seen this season.

Louisville Rushing Offense Evaluation

Rushing Defense Louisville Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 136 130 -6 95.59%
Virginia 113.64 79 -34.64 69.52%
FIU 160.42 12 -148.42 7.48%
Wake Forest 186 215 29 115.59%
Syracuse 139 178 39 128.06%
Clemson 100.82 52 -48.82 51.58%
NC State 188.82 166 -22.82 87.91%
Florida State 148.82 158 9.18 106.17%
Boston College 97.82 166 68.18 169.70%
Notre Dame 157.73 229 71.27 145.18%
Kentucky 201 Average -4.407 97.68%

The Cardinal rushing attack has increasingly shown improvement throughout 2014 and has run for 150+ yards on the ground in 6 of its last 7 contests.  Still UofL gains about 4 yards less than what opponents typically allow despite having 3 consecutive games OVER the average allowed.

Kentucky will be the worst Rushing Defense Louisville will have faced in 2014.

Kentucky Rushing Defense Evaluation

Rushing Offense Kentucky Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 162.73 74 -88.73 45.47%
Florida 197.1 237 39.9 120.24%
Vanderbilt 108 54 -54 50.00%
South Carolina 179.09 282 102.91 157.46%
UL Monroe 74.09 77 2.91 103.93%
LSU 204.55 303 98.45 148.13%
Mississippi State 246.82 326 79.18 132.08%
Missouri 177.64 156 -21.64 87.82%
Georgia 260.55 305 44.45 117.06%
Tennessee 131.82 214 82.18 162.34%
Louisville 155.45 Average 28.561 112.45%

UK has allowed over 300 yards rushing in 3 of its last 5 games (is that bad?).  On average UK allows 28 more yards per game than what opponents usually gain or 112.45%.  Louisville will bring in the 8th best rushing attack (or the 4th worst) that UK has seen in 2014.

Summary

Ranges (based on suggested math)

UofL Points:  31.55-35.54

UofL Total Yardage: 388.85-423.38

UofL Passing Yards: 213.52-225.68

UofL Rushing Yards: 174.80-196.59

It’s a strong guess that Louisville will scored over 30 points versus Kentucky.  When that has happened the Cats were able to win just 1 game in 2014 (South Carolina).  Louisville on the other hand has lost just 1 game on the season when scoring over 30 points (FSU).

I do expect that Louisville’s passing range will be on the low end (and perhaps even out of the range) we found because of true Freshman Reggie Bonnafon and the play-calling that we’ve seen employed from Petrino & McGee since Reggie took over vs. Boston College.  Also coupled with Kentucky’s recent run stopping ineffectiveness, I expect that the Cards will give the Cats an early & often dose of Michael Dyer & Brandon Radcliff throughout the game which I expect UofL to be on the high end (or perhaps even exceed) the range for Louisville on the ground.

The Cats did get a week off, so UK may be tougher early in the 1st half against the run than they have shown in their last 5 games.

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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