Louisville is fresh off of its best offensive performance of the season against Florida State. If you read our preview last week, Louisville performing well against Florida State came as no surprise. This week, statistics bear out a more difficult road for the Louisville offense against the Boston College Defense.
The Eagles are a very frugal defense and allow on average 68 fewer yards than their opponents have averaged on the season. 3 games in particular stand out for BC UMASS, USC, and NC State where the Eagles REALLY did an outstanding job of keeping those 3 teams off their averages by a great deal.
Louisville on the other hand has really been a chameleon to whatever the opposing defense typically allows with the exception being the most recent match-up against Florida State when the Cards gained 125% and 99 yards OVER what the Seminoles typically allow.
Still the range here is pretty tight from what we probably can expect for Louisville to gain against Boston College with the stats suggesting that the Cards will be able to gain around 315-328 yards on Saturday night against the Boston College Eagles.
|Total Offense||BC Allowed||Deviation from Avg||% Gained of Avg Allowed|
|Total Defense||UofL Gained||Deviation from Avg||% Gained of Avg Allowed|
Louisville Passing Offense vs. Boston College Passing Defense
Boston College is stingy pass defense team, but it is probably Louisville’s best chance to move the football. Particularly according to recent results. The Eagles have allowed 240+ yards or more in 5 of its 8 games against FBS opponents (this is mostly due to BC’s stingy run defense, but we’ll get to that later).
Overall, Boston College limits its opponents to 55 yards fewer than they are accustomed and just 79% of their average.
Louisville on the other hand has actually gained more than what their opponents typically allow through the air by 28 yards or 115%. The Cards have also played 4 of the Top 20 passing defenses, so Boston College’s 58th rating isn’t exactly a new problem but rather a welcome relief.
The range of potential gain through the air is quite staggering as Louisville should gain anywhere between 182-257 yards through the air, which is an extremely wide range. The big spread makes the Louisville Passing game vs. the BC Passing Defense the battle to watch when the Cards have the ball.
|Passing Offense||Boston College Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
|Passing Defense||Louisville Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Louisville Rushing Offense vs. Boston College Rushing Defense
Louisville’s Rushing attack has been much improved in 4 of its past 5 games. The arrival of a healthy Michael Dyer to the line-up has made a tremendous impact to the Louisville running game. Meanwhile, only Pitt & Colorado State have really been able to crack the Boston College Rushing Defense puzzle and the Panthers have one of the top rushing offenses in the country. In fact, every opponent that has been able to gain 100+ yards against the Eagles are games that Boston College has lost (Pitt, Colorado State, and Clemson) so this is a huge point of emphasis in the game.
Boston College typically allows 64 yards fewer or 84% of what teams are accustomed to gaining on the ground. Louisville on the other hand has been all over the map but has an average of 18 yards fewer or just 85% of what its opponents usually allow on the ground.
Statistically Louisville should be able to gain between 70-122 yards on the ground Saturday night. The closer Louisville gets to that 122 number the better chance the Cards have to win. Staying south of 100 yards is a bad recipe for the Cards.
|Rushing Offense||Boston College Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
|Rushing Defense||Louisville Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
It’s going to be a tough game for Louisville to move the ball. The main thing here for the Cards is to not get frustrated or turn the ball over. Boston College has not been a big take away team in 2014, but they do not give up much room at all. The Eagles are not a stellar 3rd down team, and that’s where Louisville has really found problems in losses. If Louisville can keep going in the right direction offensively that we’ve seen in the past few weeks and the Cards can actually begin to convert 3rd downs they can pull off the win on the road.
Boston College will be no picnic and it will seriously test this team’s mettle.