This will likely be the last year that I use the Steve Kragthorpe era to measure the trends of recent Cardinal Football history.  Charlie Strong’s staff has done an outstanding job in re-building this program’s foundation, and the excitement for the 2013 season is building towards an epic crescendo in September.

But I think it is important to remember where you come from, and also try and identify trends while remembering individual teams.  So let’s take a 6-year view of Cardinal Football Team Statistics:

Louisville Strong Strong Strong Kragthorpe Kragthorpe Kragthorpe
Record 11-2 7-6 7-6 4-8 5-7 6-6

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Scoring Offense 31.2 (50th) 21.9 (98th) 26.4 (63rd) 18.1 (111th) 24.7 (66th) 35.2 (18th)
Total Offense 418.8 (51st) 333.0 (103rd) 369.0 (71st) 334.1 (91st) 376.7 (45th) 488.0 (6th)
Passing Offense 296.1 (24th) 211.5 (74th) 194.0 (79th) 208.9 (71st) 212.2 (63rd) 341.9 (4th)
Rushing Offense 122.69 (105th) 121.54 (93rd) 175.0 (33rd) 125.17 (89th) 164.5 (46th) 146.08 (64th)
Scoring Defense 23.8 (36th) 20.1 (17th) 19.4 (18th) 26.3 (65th) 29.8 (89th) 31.4 (91st)
Total Defense 340.3 (23rd) 327.9 (23rd) 311.7 (14th) 371.1 (65th) 368.8 (70th) 416.5 (84th)
Passing Defense 192.3 (17th) 227.4 (68th) 167.4 (9th) 206.0 (42nd) 239.3 (93rd) 251.2 (87th)
Rushing Defense 148.00 (49th) 100.54 (10th) 144.31 (52nd) 165.08 (84th) 129.5 (37th) 165.33 (71st)
Punt Returns 4.25 (111th) 4.95 (102nd) 12.61 (18th) 11.35 (33rd) 8.88 (61st) 6.70 (91st)
Kickoff Returns (ypr) 17.31 (122nd) 23.59 (28th) 25.49 (10th) 24.12 (18th) 18.75 (112th) 22.44 (37th)
Opponent Punt Returns (ypr) 8.14 (66th) 0.54 (1st) 5.10 (16th) 6.65 (34th) 8.13 (50th) 9.59 (74th)
Opponent Kickoff Returns 24.65 (114th) 24.78 (116th) 23.70 (99th) 24.82 (113th) 20.39 (48th) 19.22 (18th)
Punting (ypp) 38.06 (112th) 37.31 (109th) 40.15 (78th) 40.5 (63rd) 40.02 (59th) 38.54 (92nd)
Field Goals (%) 78.3 (34th) 66.7 (70th) 77.8 (47th) 72.2 (57th) 45.5 (118th) 76.5 (46th)
Opponent Field Goals (%) 71.4% (55th) 58.8 (19th) 52.6% (8th) 85.0 (108th) 58.8 (18th) 76.9 (85th)
First Downs 22.8 (35th) 16.5 (107th) 18.8 (72nd) 17.8 (89th) 20.3 (43rd) 25.8 (5th)
Opponent First Downs 18.2 (21st) 17.7 (24th) 16.9 (12th) 18.9 (52nd) 17.8 (45th) 21.2 (66th)
Penalties (ypg) 54.1 (73rd) 56.5 (83rd) 63.8 (105th) 57.6 (81st) 56.8 (83rd) 68.2 (112th)
Turnover Margin +11 (18th) -1 (66th) +3 (42nd) -3 (75th) -12 (111th) 0 (55th)
Time of Possession 32:58.08 (6th) 31:58.15 (20th) 31:00.77 (31st) 29:19.33 (79th) 31:35.50 (21st) 31:18.58 (22nd)
Sacks (pg) 1.69 (77th) 2.54 (19th) 2.92 (7th) 1.92 (60th) 1.17 (106th) 1.42 (101st)
Sacks Allowed 2.31 (85th) 3.15 (112th) 1.31 (25th) 3.00 (110th) 1.58 (42nd) 2.08 (66th)
Tackles for Loss 4.54 (101st) 7.08 (23rd) 6.62 (30th) 5.75 (58th) 4.83 (98th) 5.75 (75th)
Tackles for Loss Allowed 6.46 (96th) 7.46 (114th) 6.31 (82nd) 7.67 (115th) 4.58 (27th) 5.25 (32nd)
Interceptions 11 (65th) 10 (73rd) 9 (89th) 10 (76th) 8 (99th) 7 (109th)
Passes Defended 4.54 (59th) 3.38 (94th) 3.00 (108th) 2.92 (111th) 3.33 (100th) 2.92 (115th)
Fumbles Recovered 13 (29th) 11 (50th) 10 (48th) 7 (99th) 10 (55th) 17 (3rd)
Fumbles Forced 12 (61st) 14 (38th) 9 (94th) 9 (89th) 9 (85th) 19 (4th)
Fumbles Lost 5 (5th) 9 (35th) 8 (25th) 9 (39th) 13 (88th) 10 (44th)
Kicks/Punts Blocked 1 (68th) 4 (16th) 2 (51st) 0 (120th) 2 (53rd) 0 (120th)
3rd Downs Conversions 49.73 (8th) 39.36% (75th) 39.89% (60th) 36.84% (81st) 37.85% (72nd) 44.24% (27th)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions 41.67 (76th) 38.14% (49th) 34.09 (13th) 40.27% (77th) 37.27% (48th) 37.74% (51st)
4th Down Conversions 69.23% (11th) 41.18% (98th) 53.85% (51st) 40.0% (85th) 45.83% (67th) 52.94% (50th)
Opponent 4th Down Conversions 28.57% (5th) 47.37% (41st) 50.0 (49th) 60.0% (96th) 50.00% (64th) 61.54 (105th)
Red Zone Conversions % 92.98% (5th) 83.78 (50th) 80.95 (70th) 76.74 (91st) 71.43 (109th) 89.83 (10th)
Opponent Red Zone Conversions % 85.71% (90th) 80.56 (54th) 77.42 (30th) 87.23 (99th) 77.5 (33rd) 80.00 (52nd)
Kickoffs (ypk) 59.97 (86th) 67.05 (8th) 66.0 (12th) 62.74 (47th) 60.91 (79th)

I really want to focus on the 2012 returns in relation to the previous 5 seasons more than anything.  I don’t really want to dwell on the past, but rather use past performance as a gauge to measure recent performance in order to predict the future.  The Cards in 2013 lose just 4 starters and 12 seniors from an 11-2 squad that won the Big East and the Sugar Bowl over Florida, so it stands to reason that the 2012 numbers should improve or at the very least….hold steady.

 

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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