Louisville Football 15 Year Offensive Stat Review

Louisville Football over the past 15 years has witnessed a lot of turnover.  Player turnover is a part of life in college athletics, but for UofL football they’ve also enduring coaching & conference turnover as well.  Through it all the Cards are 127-63 in the last 15 seasons of football.  Let’s take a look at how well they’ve done in the individual offensive categories statistically during that time (some stat groups are shorter than 15-years).

Offense

Scoring Offense

The Cards scored 38.1 ppg last season.  That was down 4.4 ppg from a year earlier despite gaining 5.9 more yards per game than in 2016.  The Cards were better through the air, on the ground, had 11 fewer fumbles lost, allowed fewer sacks & TFLs, had 2.1 more 1st downs per game, completed a higher percentage in the Red Zone, was 3 percentage points better on 3rd Down, had almost 20 yards fewer penalties per game, and improved its turnover margin by NINE from 2016…..almost every offensive stat metric from 2016 to 2017 IMPROVED except for points.

Why?  It’s almost entirely attributable to defense and average starting field position and available yards.  Louisville’s offense was better in 2017 but UofL had 17 FEWER TRIPS TO THE RED ZONE because they had much further to travel when starting offensive possessions.  We’ll get into that stats later, but Scoring Offense isn’t always about the offense.  So let’s get into the offensive stuff.

Total Offense

544.9 yards per game was 3rd in the country and 5.9 yards more than Bobby Petrino’s best Louisville offense in 2004 and 12.2 yards better than a year prior when Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy.

Passing Offense

Believe it or not but 2017 saw Louisville football with its highest passing yard average per game under Bobby Petrino. Petrino’s 2005 Gator Bowl team threw for 6.2 fewer yards per game as its previous high.  Also Louisville was 9.3 yards per game better through the air in 2017 than in 2016.

Rushing Offense

We got a little numb to the yardage totals during the Lamar Jackson era but looking at them now against this category that Petrino dominates over his two coaching eras at UofL is really interesting.  Petrino in 2003-2006 achieved those rushing totals with Running Backs (Stefan LeFors did run for 756 yards in his career) but in 2016 & 2017 Bobby really got most of the contribution from Lamar Jackson.

Red Zone %

UofL wasn’t awesome in the Red Zone last year or in 2016.  The Cards left a lot of points on the board in both seasons.  The last time the Cards cracked the Top 40 in the Red Zone was 2013 with Charlie Strong and Teddy Bridgewater.  This area is a HUGE area of opportunity for Louisville Football as teams who enter the Red Zone need to make it count and get points.  The Cards grew made FG % by 9 percentage points from 2016 to 2017 but still found themselves ranked in the 60s.

Last year Lamar Jackson threw an INT inside the Red Zone and were stopped on downs vs. Wake Forest resulting in no points.  The Cards lost by 10 to the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem.  Against Mississippi State the Cards lost by 4 and Blanton Creque missed a FG in the red zone… maybe Creque’s miss doesn’t change the result but going for a TD rather than a FG in the 4th quarter where Louisville had two opportunities might have changed the approach and the result.  Possibly Red Zone conversions cost Louisville two games in 2017.

Red Zone TD Conversion %

Traditionally the Cards haven’t been a national leader in this area with a school best 29th over the past 10 seasons.  Over the past few years 69%-70% is the line of demarcation for Top 25 Red Zone TD Conversion teams and the Cards flirted with that mark in Petrino’s 1st year back with the program in 2014.  Despite this UofL has still put together one of the nation’s top offenses but this is certainly an area of opportunity for Petrino and the Cards.

Red Zone Trips

It’s striking how many fewer trips inside the Red Zone Louisville took in Lamar Jackson’s junior season as opposed to his sophomore year.  17 fewer trips.  This is where it becomes clear that beyond all of the other stats where Louisville’s offense improved in 2017 from a year prior as to why scoring was down.  Still 59 trips inside the Red Zone are a ton.  Come close to 55 and the 2018 should be a success with improvement from the defense…. however if the defense isn’t improved……..

3rd Down %

Louisville has had some great success on 3rd down.  Keeping drives going is a key to any offense and it’s probably no surprise to anyone that Teddy Bridgewater’s junior season is far and away the leader in this category for the past 15 seasons.  Still the Cards are pretty reliabily in the Top 40 of this category and in 2017 Louisville improved 3.1 percentage points from 2016 on 3rd down.  We’ll see how they fare in 2018.

4th Down %

4th down % is always a strange stat to measure because the rate varies so widely across the country.  Still any extreme is notable while anything in the middle isn’t much to get excited/upset about.

1st Downs

The past two seasons have seen the Cards move the chains more than at any other time during Louisville Football’s existence.  Sean Moth might be hoarse from leading the “Cards First Down” chant 27.1 times per game in 2017.

Sacks Allowed

UofL drastically improved the Sacks Allowed category in 2017 but it still wasn’t enought to place the Cards in a respectable position nationally. But while comparing this stat to overall Tackles For Loss allowed it becomes clear that Louisville made improvements on its O-Line and that a QB like Lamar Jackson will probably just take sacks by his very nature.  We’ll see if these two metrics improve in 2018 with a different style.

Tackles For Loss Allowed

Interceptions Lost

Lamar Jackson threw 4 INTs in his final game as a Cardinal vs. Mississippi State.  If that game had not occured Louisville would have finished with just 6 INTs in 2017 which would have been the 2nd best season in the past 10 for INTs lost.  Probably not a surprise to anyone again that Teddy Bridgewater’s junior year leads the past 10 years for the Cards.

Fumbles Lost

DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT in 2017.  From 22 lost fumbles which was one of the worst performances by any program in the metric over the past 10 years to just 11 in 2017 was a big deal.  But it’s still too many. Let’s hope the Cards give up single digits for the first time in a long time in 2018.

Time of Possession

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Mark Blankenbaker

@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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