Kentucky Scoring Offense Evaluation

Scoring Defense Kentucky Scored vs. Deviation from Avg. % Scored of Avg
Ohio 25.2 20 -5.2 79.37%
Florida 20.9 30 9.1 143.54%
Vanderbilt 34.1 17 -17.1 49.85%
South Carolina 30.8 45 14.2 146.10%
UL Monroe 26.6 48 21.4 180.45%
LSU 16.4 3 -13.4 18.29%
Mississippi State 18.4 31 12.6 168.48%
Missouri 20.2 10 -10.2 49.50%
Georgia 20.5 31 10.5 151.22%
Tennessee 24.5 16 -8.5 65.31%
Louisville 18.7 Average 1.340 105.21%

The Cats have scored about the average what teams typically allow in 2014.  UK was way under vs. Vanderbilt & LSU, but over performed a great deal versus South Carolina, Monroe, Georgia, and Mississippi State.

Louisville is the 3rd best scoring defensive team that Kentucky has played this season (Mississippi State & LSU) and the Cats had dramatically different results against both of those teams, although they both ended in a loss.

Louisville Scoring Defense Evaluation

Scoring Offense Louisville Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Scored of Avg
Miami (FL) 30.5 13 -17.5 42.62%
Virginia 26.4 23 -3.4 87.12%
FIU 23 3 -20 13.04%
Wake Forest 14.3 10 -4.3 69.93%
Syracuse 18 6 -12 33.33%
Clemson 29.6 23 -6.6 77.70%
NC State 29.4 18 -11.4 61.22%
Florida State 35.5 42 6.5 118.31%
Boston College 25.7 19 -6.7 73.93%
Notre Dame 34.7 28 -6.7 80.69%
Kentucky 28.2 Average -8.210 65.79%

The Cards have been outstanding in disallowing points and have held 9 of 10 FBS schools (FSU) under the usual point production in a given ballgame. UofL limits scoring to 8.2 points less than usual or just 65.79%.

Kentucky is the 5th worst (or 6th best) scoring team that the Cards will play in 2014.

Kentucky Total Offense Evaluation

Total Defense Kentucky Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 401.4 402 0.60 100.15%
Florida 311.5 450 138.50 144.46%
Vanderbilt 414.8 384 -30.80 92.57%
South Carolina 428.4 447 18.60 104.34%
UL Monroe 364.5 352 -12.50 96.57%
LSU 312.9 217 -95.90 69.35%
Mississippi State 400.7 504 103.30 125.78%
Missouri 334.4 260 -74.40 77.75%
Georgia 322.3 353 30.70 109.53%
Tennessee 367.9 262 -105.90 71.22%
Louisville 290.2 Average -2.78 99.17%

UK, again, really mirrors what defenses typically allow on the season.  UK’s worst two performances of the season were against LSU & Tennessee, but the Cats really got up for Florida & Mississippi State.  It’s a roller coaster because UK has performed very well on offense at times…but they had enough bad outings to find their way back to the middle.

Louisville will be the best Total Defense team UK has played in 2014.

Louisville Total Defense Evaluation

Total Offense Louisvile Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 431.9 244 -187.9 56.49%
Virginia 379.6 285 -94.6 75.08%
FIU 293.2 205 -88.2 69.92%
Wake Forest 207.3 100 -107.3 48.24%
Syracuse 347.5 260 -87.5 74.82%
Clemson 402.7 229 -173.7 56.87%
NC State 397.3 351 -46.3 88.35%
Florida State 441.5 574 132.5 130.01%
Boston College 391.3 332 -59.3 84.85%
Notre Dame 453.3 335 -118.3 73.90%
Kentucky 389.5 Average -83.06 75.85%

Louisville has held every opponent except one (FSU) under its yearly average yards per game average in 2014.  Typically the Cards hold the opponents to 83 (!) yards fewer average, or 75.85%. Louisville has held 4 opponents to 100+ yards or more less than normal (Miami, Wake, Clemson, and Notre Dame).

Kentucky’s offense will be the 4th worst that the Cards have seen in 2014.  In the 3 games that UofL played with worst offenses than UK, the Cards held those teams each to under 87 yards or more off their average.

Kentucky Passing Offense Evaluation

Passing Defense Kentucky Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 265.4 170 -95.4 64.05%
Florida 201.1 369 167.9 183.49%
Vanderbilt 229.8 85 -144.8 36.99%
South Carolina 214.9 208 -6.9 96.79%
UL Monroe 194.8 216 21.2 110.88%
LSU 164 146 -18 89.02%
Mississippi State 281.4 401 119.6 142.50%
Missouri 210.5 158 -52.5 75.06%
Georgia 167 139 -28 83.23%
Tennessee 202.3 168 -34.3 83.04%
Louisville 201.7 Average -7.12 96.51%

Once again, UK does whatever opponents usually allow.  The Florida & Miss State were once again the big positive outliers with Ohio & Vanderbilt really being the negative extreme data sets.

Louisville’s passing defense is the 5th best unit Kentucky has played in 2014.  Against Louisville the Cats will play against their 6th Top 40 Passing defense this season.

Louisville Passing Defense Evaluation

Passing Offense Louisvile Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 247 174 -73 70.45%
Virginia 232.8 171 -61.8 73.45%
FIU 168 117 -51 69.64%
Wake Forest 169.5 122 -47.5 71.98%
Syracuse 194.8 201 6.2 103.18%
Clemson 256.3 157 -99.3 61.26%
NC State 207.8 223 15.2 107.31%
Florida State 314.9 401 86.1 127.34%
Boston College 129.5 166 36.5 128.19%
Notre Dame 298.2 236 -62.2 79.14%
Kentucky 236.2 Average -25.08 89.19%

UofL allows about 25 yards less through the air than teams usually gain.  Louisville has held 6 of 10 FBS opponents to fewer yards through the air than usual.  The Cards have played against 4 Top 50 passing offenses in 2014 (Kentucky is not one).

The Cats are the 5th best passing team the Cards will play this season.  Of the other 4 passing offenses that UofL has faced all but FSU were severely limited.

Kentucky Rushing Offense Evaluation

Rushing Defense Kentucky Gained vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Ohio 136 232 96 170.59%
Florida 110.4 81 -29.4 73.37%
Vanderbilt 185 54 -131 29.19%
South Carolina 213.45 239 25.55 111.97%
UL Monroe 169.73 136 -33.73 80.13%
LSU 148.91 71 -77.91 47.68%
Mississippi State 119.36 103 -16.36 86.29%
Missouri 123.82 102 -21.82 82.38%
Georgia 155.27 214 58.73 137.82%
Tennessee 165.64 94 -71.64 56.75%
Louisville 88.45 Average -20.158 87.62%

UK has had 3 outstanding rushing performances in 2014, and two of those were well above the average yards allowed by run defenses.  The other 7 games……well….UK gains 20 yards fewer than opponents have allowed on the season despite those 3 great games on the ground.

Louisville’s rushing defense is 22 yards better per game than any run defense that Kentucky has played all season.

Louisville Rushing Defense Evaluation

Rushing Offense Louisville Allowed vs. Deviation from Avg. % Gained of Avg
Miami (FL) 184.91 70 -114.91 37.86%
Virginia 146.82 114 -32.82 77.65%
FIU 125.17 88 -37.17 70.30%
Wake Forest 37.73 -22 -59.73 -58.31%
Syracuse 152.73 59 -93.73 38.63%
Clemson 146.45 72 -74.45 49.16%
NC State 189.45 128 -61.45 67.56%
Florida State 126.64 173 46.36 136.61%
Boston College 261.82 166 -95.82 63.40%
Notre Dame 155.09 99 -56.09 63.83%
Kentucky 153.36 Average -57.981 54.67%

UofL’s run D is DOMINANT. Only one team has been able to gain more than average (FSU) but the Cards still limit opponents to nearly 58 yards fewer per game than average.

The Cats will be the 5th best rushing team UofL will have played in 2014.

Summary

Ranges (based on suggested math) 

UK Points: 18.55-20.04

UK Total Yardage: 287.42-306.44

UK Passing Yards: 194.58-211.12

UK Rushing Yards: 68.29-95.38

Based on projections, UK’s 18-20 points on Saturday will need the Wildcat defense to play an outstanding game.  Louisville did lose twice in 2014 to Virginia & Clemson when the opponent scored 23 points.  Just 4 teams all season have been able to break the 20 point barrier against Louisville.

Kentucky’s best bet to move the ball against Louisville is through the air.  I don’t think there will be a great deal of room on the ground for Kentucky, but the Cats may elect to test the waters.  The health of Patrick Towles  will be a big component to the Kentucky offense.  UK had a week off and that will help coming into the game, but Kentucky allows just as much pressure as the Cards do and Louisvile is 9th in the country in getting sacks for its defense.  Towles will need his mobility to evade some of the rush and to remain healthy.

The Cats are one of the worst 3rd down offenses in the nation.  Louisville has a clear advantage on defense in this one, but UK has shown its ability to get up for big games.  We’ll see what happens on Saturday.

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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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