Kentucky Scoring Offense Evaluation
|Scoring Defense||Kentucky Scored vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Scored of Avg|
The Cats have scored about the average what teams typically allow in 2014. UK was way under vs. Vanderbilt & LSU, but over performed a great deal versus South Carolina, Monroe, Georgia, and Mississippi State.
Louisville is the 3rd best scoring defensive team that Kentucky has played this season (Mississippi State & LSU) and the Cats had dramatically different results against both of those teams, although they both ended in a loss.
Louisville Scoring Defense Evaluation
|Scoring Offense||Louisville Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Scored of Avg|
The Cards have been outstanding in disallowing points and have held 9 of 10 FBS schools (FSU) under the usual point production in a given ballgame. UofL limits scoring to 8.2 points less than usual or just 65.79%.
Kentucky is the 5th worst (or 6th best) scoring team that the Cards will play in 2014.
Kentucky Total Offense Evaluation
|Total Defense||Kentucky Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
UK, again, really mirrors what defenses typically allow on the season. UK’s worst two performances of the season were against LSU & Tennessee, but the Cats really got up for Florida & Mississippi State. It’s a roller coaster because UK has performed very well on offense at times…but they had enough bad outings to find their way back to the middle.
Louisville will be the best Total Defense team UK has played in 2014.
Louisville Total Defense Evaluation
|Total Offense||Louisvile Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Louisville has held every opponent except one (FSU) under its yearly average yards per game average in 2014. Typically the Cards hold the opponents to 83 (!) yards fewer average, or 75.85%. Louisville has held 4 opponents to 100+ yards or more less than normal (Miami, Wake, Clemson, and Notre Dame).
Kentucky’s offense will be the 4th worst that the Cards have seen in 2014. In the 3 games that UofL played with worst offenses than UK, the Cards held those teams each to under 87 yards or more off their average.
Kentucky Passing Offense Evaluation
|Passing Defense||Kentucky Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
Once again, UK does whatever opponents usually allow. The Florida & Miss State were once again the big positive outliers with Ohio & Vanderbilt really being the negative extreme data sets.
Louisville’s passing defense is the 5th best unit Kentucky has played in 2014. Against Louisville the Cats will play against their 6th Top 40 Passing defense this season.
Louisville Passing Defense Evaluation
|Passing Offense||Louisvile Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
UofL allows about 25 yards less through the air than teams usually gain. Louisville has held 6 of 10 FBS opponents to fewer yards through the air than usual. The Cards have played against 4 Top 50 passing offenses in 2014 (Kentucky is not one).
The Cats are the 5th best passing team the Cards will play this season. Of the other 4 passing offenses that UofL has faced all but FSU were severely limited.
Kentucky Rushing Offense Evaluation
|Rushing Defense||Kentucky Gained vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
UK has had 3 outstanding rushing performances in 2014, and two of those were well above the average yards allowed by run defenses. The other 7 games……well….UK gains 20 yards fewer than opponents have allowed on the season despite those 3 great games on the ground.
Louisville’s rushing defense is 22 yards better per game than any run defense that Kentucky has played all season.
Louisville Rushing Defense Evaluation
|Rushing Offense||Louisville Allowed vs.||Deviation from Avg.||% Gained of Avg|
UofL’s run D is DOMINANT. Only one team has been able to gain more than average (FSU) but the Cards still limit opponents to nearly 58 yards fewer per game than average.
The Cats will be the 5th best rushing team UofL will have played in 2014.
Ranges (based on suggested math)
UK Points: 18.55-20.04
UK Total Yardage: 287.42-306.44
UK Passing Yards: 194.58-211.12
UK Rushing Yards: 68.29-95.38
Based on projections, UK’s 18-20 points on Saturday will need the Wildcat defense to play an outstanding game. Louisville did lose twice in 2014 to Virginia & Clemson when the opponent scored 23 points. Just 4 teams all season have been able to break the 20 point barrier against Louisville.
Kentucky’s best bet to move the ball against Louisville is through the air. I don’t think there will be a great deal of room on the ground for Kentucky, but the Cats may elect to test the waters. The health of Patrick Towles will be a big component to the Kentucky offense. UK had a week off and that will help coming into the game, but Kentucky allows just as much pressure as the Cards do and Louisvile is 9th in the country in getting sacks for its defense. Towles will need his mobility to evade some of the rush and to remain healthy.
The Cats are one of the worst 3rd down offenses in the nation. Louisville has a clear advantage on defense in this one, but UK has shown its ability to get up for big games. We’ll see what happens on Saturday.