Analysis Paralysis!!

I use KenPom as my guide and breakdown every team. There are 2 levels of break down.

  • The top 6 seeds get the most love.  Most likely nobody winning below that line, and this took long enough. They get KenPom Analysis and “other factors” analysis.
  • All Teams will get KenPom analysis only. There are two teams yet to play, so I guessed the winners to complete the analysis.

KenPom Analysis

I break down each region for KenPom rankings, KP Offensive Efficiency, and KP Defensive Efficiency.  I also put a score value depending on where their O & D are ranked to compare the overall KP rating of a team.  Spread sheet below.

  •  KP Rank, KP –O, FP – D.  Yellow = Elite.  Need to be ranked top 25 to be elite.

I also put a score value depending on where their O & D are ranked to compare the overall KP rating of a team.  I call it the “Tier Score”.

  • Tier Score:   KP Ranking of (0-25) = 6 points; (26-50) = 5 points; (51-75) = 4 points, and so on in increments of 25 until I hit 150 – then they get a ZERO.  Yellow = Elite.  A score of 5 or 6 is elite.

 

“Other Factors” Analysis – Top 6 seeds only

I also factor in some other variables for all top 6 seeds, and the THREE schools that are in KenPom’s top 25 and NOT seeded top 6 in each region.

  • Win Streak:  what is their current win streak (this tells us conference champions as well).  Yellow = elite.  If you won your conference tourney you get elite status.
  •  Last 10 games:  How many of last ten did they win?  Tells us who is hot now.Yellow = elite.  You need 8 or more wins to be elite.
  • Achieved a 6 game win streak? Did the team win 6 consecutive games during their conference season? Yellow = Elite.  If you couldn’t win 6 during conference play – it ain’t getting any easier.

I also average everything,..

You will see the following averages for each region.  By Total, Top 8 seeds, and Top 4 seeds.  Why widdle them down?  To weed out dead weight in iterations to reveal the region’s strength.  For instance, the M-West has a terrific top 4, but not much after that compared to other regions. That will be shown below.

  1. Kenpom total average (all 16 teams).
  2. Kenpom Offensive efficiency rating (all 16 teams).
  3. Kenpom Defensive efficiency rating (all 16 teams).
  4. Top 8 seeds only  Kenpom average score
  5. Top 4 seeds only Kenpom average score.

Are you eye’s crossing yet?  If you don’t want to understand ANY OF THIS, I highlighted in yellow where teams are elite.  So easy enough – more yellow = a strong team.

 

Here we go!

Kenpom Score Facts – Ranked

  • Toughest Regions by overall KP score (all 16 teams):  West, South, M-West, East
  • Toughest Regions by overall KP score (top 8 seeds only):  West, South, M-West, East
  • Toughest Regions by overall KP score (top 4 seeds only):  M-West, West, South & East tied for 3rd.

KenPom Offensive Efficiency Ratings  – Ranked

  • Toughest Regions by KP-O Score (all 16 teams):  West, South, East, M-West
  • Toughest Regions by KP-O Score (top 8 seeds):  West, East, M-West, South
  • Toughest Regions by KP-O Score (top 4 seeds):  M-West, East, South, West

KenPom Defensive Efficiency Ratings – Ranked

  • Toughest Regions by KP-D Score (all 16 teams):  M-West, East, South, West
  • Toughest Regions by KP-D Score (top 8 seeds):  South, East, M-West, West
  • Toughest Regions by KP-D Score (top 4 seeds):  M-West, East, South, West

 

Regional Profiles (ranked in order of K Palm Factors)

West

Best overall depth/parity, not heavy with contenders.  Heavy on offense, light on defense.

Conference Champs: 1 conference champ in top 6 seeds.

KP 20/20: No teams rated top 20 in KP offense and defense.

6 game Win Streak: 4 teams achieved 6 wins in a row during conference play.  1 team achieved it that was KenPom top 25, but not a top 6 seed (Gonzaga).

Last 10:  3 teams won 8 or more of last 10 games.

Watch Out For:  1 team. Gonzaga is KP top 25, but not seeded top 6 (#8).

Teams Present who are top KP for their seed #: 2 teams. (1) Arizona, (15) American.

Safe Bet:  Arizona & Wisconson play it out.

Dark Horse:  Winner of Gonzaga vs. Ok State.  Its a pretty even region.

Built for an upset, not to last:  Baylor.  Hot team with a bad defense.

 

M-West

Decent depth, solid contenders, Strong D, Light O, but gets better at top seeds

Conference Champs: 2 conference champ in top 6 seeds.

KP 20/20: 2 teams rated top 20 in KP offense and defense (LOU, Wichita)

6 game Win Streak: 4 teams achieved 6 wins in a row during conference play.

Last 10:  3 teams won 8 or more of last 10 games.

Watch Out For:  2 teams. Tennessee (picking them to win), is KenPom #11, and not seeded top 6.  Whoa. Kentucky is KP top 25, but not seeded top 6 (#8).

Teams Present who are top KP for their seed #: 5 teams. (3) Duke, (4) Louisville, (8) Kentucky, (11) Tennessee (if they win), (13) Manhattan.

Safe Bet:  Duke, and that’s it.  Both Michigan and Duke will overwhelm opponents with the nations #2 and 3 offenses.  However with both defense 100+, I am picking on Coach K to beat Coach B. Louisville and Wichita are the only top 10 Kenpom 20/20 and would meet in the Sweet 16, so the top half is a mess. Not fair. Send us West.

Dark Horse:  Kentucky, Kind of.  Woefully under seeded, but stuck in the small corner of the bracket with KenPom 20/20’s Louisville & Wichita State.  Really not fair.

Built for an upset, but not to last:  Kentucky.  All the talent, none of the consistency.

UK Storyline:  NCAA is setting up a duel with Kentucky, the 40-0 talker & Wichita State, the 40-0 walker.  If Kentucky gets by WSU a likely matchup with in state rival Louisville, and if they get that – another attempt to erase the memory of Laetner’s shot.  Give it a rest NCAA.

 

East

Light on depth, solid contenders, Strong D, Strong O

Conference Champs: 3 conference champ in top 6 seeds.

KP 20/20: 0 teams rated top 20 in KP offense and defense.

6 game Win Streak: 4 teams achieved 6 wins in a row during conference play.

Last 10:  4 teams won 8 or more of last 10 games.

Watch Out For:  Uconn almost qualifies.  They are KenPom top 25, and not seeded top 6 – but they are KP 25th, and seeded 7th, so in the end this is a wash.

Teams Present who are top KP for their seed #: 4 teams. (2) Nova, (7) Uconn, (12) Harvard, (14) NC Central.

Safe Bets:  Virginia and Villanova “duke” it out for Final Four.

Dark Horse:  UNC

Built for an upset, but not to last: Ironically, UNC’s opponent Providence.  End with a conference tourney champ and a star player, who knows.

 

South

Decent depth, solid contenders, Strong D, Strong O

Conference Champs: 2 conference champ in top 6 seeds.

KP 20/20: 1 team rated top 20 in KP offense and defense.

6 game Win Streak: 4 teams achieved 6 wins in a row during conference play.

Last 10:  1 team won 8 or more of last 10 games.

Watch Out For:  Pitt. Largest KP to Seed differential.  KP #18, but seeded #9 (equivalent of being #36, whoa).  True, they are Pitt, but still.

Teams Present who are top KP for their seed #: 5 teams. (5) VCU, (6) Ohio State, (9) Pitt, (10) Stanford, (16) Albany

Safe Bets:  Florida Syracuse Duke it out for Final Four.

Dark Horse:  Kansas (kind of lame, huh)?  I just don’t know about Embid’s back injury.  Just for a little excitement I will add UCLA.  This region doesn’t have exciting lower seeds to me. Pitt would qualify since woefully under seeded, I just don’t see them beating Florida.

Built for an upset, but not to last:  New Mexico.  They can ball, and Kansas is limping.

 

           Toughest Seeds to face at each seed level.            Easiest Seeds to Face at each level

TSeedsEasiestSeeds

 

 

The Big Nasty – All Data in One Sheet.  If you like KenPom, and you think it helps making your picks, lots of info in here.

TotalSheet

 

The Madness is upon us.  God Help Us All.

 

 

 

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@CrumsRevenge

Former D1 Player and Coach. Life long fan of the Cardinals. CR makes movies, takes photos, co-host of "The Crunch Zone" Podcast, and can be heard on ESPN680 Wednesday 7-8:30am. Follow on Twitter, Instagram, and Vine (CrumsRevenge).

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