Bracketology begins right after One Shining Moment ends on the 1st Monday in April each year.  That’s too early.  But seeding a field of 68 for the NCAA Tournament and using the selection criteria that the NCAA Selection Committee uses is a tough job.  Trust me…I’ve tried.

With that said Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS do their level best to keep college basketball fans appraised of where their favorite team stands in the NCAA Tournament.  Right now Lunardi has the Cards as a #5 seed in the Midwest Region playing Wofford in the 1st round in Jacksonville, FL.  Jerry Palm also has Louisville in the Midwest Region in Jacksonville but as a #4 seed playing Harvard.

What is interesting is that both Palm & Lunardi believe that the NCAA Selection Committee will place the Cards in the Midwest (Cleveland Region) which is assuredly the same region, once again, as Kentucky and would set-up another Sweet 16 match-up between the Cards and Cats.

Personally,  I think the NCAA Selection Committee has heard the criticism two years in a row of a watered-down West Region and will do its best to pack the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA with top teams.  Not great for travel for Louisville fans, but it’s the same formula that saw the 2005 & 2012 teams make a run to the Final Four.

In addition to laying out the match-ups I’ve also included RealtimeRPI data which suggests that Louisville really is on the #4/#5 line right now, ranked #16.

The KPI Data suggests that the Cards are more in line with the #4 seed but they do have some worrisome data that might drop them lower, like being 3-5 vs. the Top 50 and 3 losses at home.

Ken Pom also puts the Cards in the #4 line with the #6 Defense in the Nation, and the #84 offense.

It’s a lot of data, but hopefully we can begin to appreciate and understand the job the committee has.  Right now I feel like the Cards are a #4 seed, but could certainly play down to a #5, or up to a #3.

Lunardi03032015Palm03032015

Real Time RPI

Rank School W-L RPI SOS SOS Conf. Conf.
Rank W-L
1   Kentucky  29-0  0.6806 25  0.5741   Sec 16-0
2   Kansas  23-6  0.6747 1  0.6243   Big12 12-4
3
  Virginia  28-1  0.6686 23  0.5750   Acc 16-1
4
  Villanova  27-2  0.6685 26  0.5737   Bige 14-2
5   Duke  26-3  0.6659 13  0.5876   Acc 13-3
6   Wisconsin  26-3  0.6633 17  0.5857   Big10 14-2
7   Arizona  26-3  0.6577 40  0.5676   Pac12 14-2
8   Gonzaga  28-2  0.6406 76  0.5442   Wcc 17-1
9
  Maryland  24-5  0.6346 34  0.5698   Big10 12-4
10
  Baylor  21-8  0.6341 3  0.6042   Big12 10-7
11   Wichita St.  26-3  0.6287 93  0.5325   Mvc 17-1
12   Utah  21-6  0.6262 32  0.5702   Pac12 12-4
13
  Iowa St.  21-8  0.6240 8  0.5914   Big12 11-6
14
  N. Carolina  20-9  0.6240 2  0.6066   Acc 10-6
15   Northern Iowa  27-3  0.6205 116  0.5167   Mvc 16-2
16
  Louisville  23-6  0.6192 39  0.5686   Acc 11-5
17
  Oklahoma  20-9  0.6185 10  0.5894   Big12 11-6
18   Arkansas  23-6  0.6170 62  0.5531   Sec 12-4
19   VCU  21-8  0.6161 14  0.5875   Atl10 11-5
20   SMU  22-6  0.6145 53  0.5559   Aac 14-3
21   West Virginia  22-7  0.6113 41  0.5657   Big12 10-6
22   Providence  20-9  0.6107 11  0.5884   Bige 10-6
23   Butler  21-8  0.6067 33  0.5701   Bige 11-5
24   Georgetown  18-9  0.6061 4  0.5973   Bige 10-6
25   S. Diego St.  21-7  0.5988 78  0.5440   Mwest 12-4

KPI

NCAA

 School Conf KPI W-L Conf Top 50 Home NC KPI Conf KPI SOS High Game
Non-Conf
1 Kentucky SEC .441 (1) 29-0 16-0 11-0 18-0 .466 (1) .421 (1) .101 (44) .87 (Louisville)
2 Virginia ACC .421 (2) 28-1 16-1 8-1 15-1 .436 (2) .411 (4) .108 (33) .91 (Maryland)
3 Duke ACC .400 (3) 26-3 13-3 8-2 14-1 .416 (3) .387 (5) .117 (22) 1.01 (Virginia)
4 Villanova Big East .380 (4) 27-2 14-2 9-1 15-0 .341 (8) .412 (3) .106 (36) .76 (Butler)
5 Kansas Big 12 .378 (5) 23-6 12-4 10-4 14-0 .393 (5) .366 (6) .191 (1) .81 (Baylor)
6 Wisconsin Big Ten .377 (6) 26-3 14-2 8-2 15-1 .403 (4) .357 (7) .125 (16) .68 (Boise State)
7 Arizona Pac-12 .370 (7) 26-3 14-2 8-0 15-0 .313 (10) .416 (2) .104 (41) .86 (Utah)
8 Gonzaga WCC .315 (8) 29-2 17-1 5-2 16-1 .350 (7) .289 (12) .039 (94) .75 (BYU)
9 Baylor Big 12 .312 (9) 22-8 10-7 7-6 15-2 .313 (9) .311 (11) .145 (7) .86 (West Virginia)
10 Iowa State Big 12 .292 (10) 21-8 11-6 10-5 15-1 .245 (22) .326 (8) .150 (6) .80 (West Virginia)
11 Maryland Big Ten .292 (11) 24-5 12-4 7-4 18-1 .266 (16) .313 (10) .085 (55) .81 (Wisconsin)
12 Oklahoma Big 12 .270 (12) 20-9 11-6 9-5 13-1 .208 (32) .313 (9) .161 (2) .77 (Tulsa)
13 VCU Atlantic 10 .266 (13) 21-8 11-5 4-4 11-4 .369 (6) .182 (47) .106 (37) .74 (Cincinnati)
14 Louisville ACC .261 (14) 23-6 11-5 3-5 14-3 .258 (18) .263 (17) .103 (42) .62 (Ohio State)
15 North Carolina ACC .260 (15) 20-9 10-6 5-8 10-4 .292 (13) .235 (27) .155 (3) .69 (Louisville)
16 Wichita State MVC .260 (16) 27-3 17-1 1-2 15-0 .254 (19) .263 (16) .009 (120) .80 (Northern Iowa)
17 West Virginia Big 12 .255 (17) 22-7 10-6 5-7 12-3 .228 (25) .276 (13) .122 (17) .75 (Wofford)
18 Utah Pac-12 .253 (18) 22-6 12-4 4-6 16-1 .245 (23) .258 (18) .076 (67) .75 (Wichita State)
19 Northern Iowa MVC .248 (19) 27-3 16-2 2-2 15-0 .281 (14) .226 (31) .005 (125) .83 (Stephen F. Austin)
20 Arkansas SEC .248 (20) 23-6 12-4 5-3 17-1 .270 (15) .230 (29) .077 (66) .84 (SMU)
21 Providence Big East .235 (21) 20-9 10-6 5-6 13-3 .251 (21) .221 (33) .130 (14) .76 (Butler)
22 Butler Big East .235 (22) 21-8 11-5 5-7 13-2 .227 (26) .241 (23) .109 (30) .68 (St. John’s)
23 SMU American .234 (23) 23-6 14-3 0-5 15-2 .210 (31) .250 (21) .050 (86) .75 (Tulsa)
24 Georgetown Big East .226 (24) 18-9 10-6 4-9 12-3 .218 (30) .232 (28) .141 (8) .88 (Villanova)
25 Notre Dame ACC .226 (25) 24-5 12-4 5-3 16-2 .169 (45) .273 (14) .035 (98) .80 (Duke)

Ken Pomeroy

Rank Team W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD
1 Kentucky 29-0 0.9792 119 6 84.9 2
2 Virginia 28-1 0.9654 112 29 84 1
3 Arizona 26-3 0.9651 116 11 86.8 3
4 Villanova 27-2 0.9535 121 3 92.8 17
5 Wisconsin 26-3 0.9481 122 1 94.9 47
6 Gonzaga 29-2 0.945 119 5 92.9 19
7 Utah 22-6 0.9445 113 25 88 5
8 Duke 26-3 0.9344 122 2 96.7 71
9 Baylor 22-8 0.9199 115 12 93.3 28
10 Wichita St. 27-3 0.9183 114 13 92.6 14
11 Oklahoma 20-9 0.9156 110 46 89.1 7
12 Kansas 23-6 0.9142 114 14 92.9 18
13 Northern Iowa 27-3 0.9023 112 28 92.6 15
14 Iowa St. 21-8 0.8944 117 9 97.5 81
15 Louisville 23-6 0.8936 106 84 88.3 6
16 Ohio St. 21-8 0.8931 113 21 93.9 36
17 North Carolina 20-9 0.8918 114 16 94.8 46
18 Notre Dame 24-5 0.8784 120 4 101 148
19 Butler 21-8 0.8774 109 55 91.6 11
20 Michigan St. 19-10 0.8733 114 17 95.9 61
21 Texas 18-12 0.8729 110 42 93 22
22 Georgetown 18-9 0.8688 110 40 93.6 30
23 SMU 23-6 0.8675 113 24 95.7 58
24 West Virginia 22-7 0.8661 111 38 94 39
25 Iowa 19-10 0.8602 113 22 96.3 67

 

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Mark Blankenbaker

@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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