We have reached the point in the off season where we start analyzing….maybe over-analyzing.  But this particular edition of over-analysis springs from a discussion with a Kentucky buddy, who insists that College Football coaches really reach their stride at their program in Year 3 (like Mark Stoops).

So instead of just accepting that hypothesis at face value, I thought I’d reach back and see if there was any precedent or trend that we could decipher going back the last 13 seasons of college football.  One nice thing is that Coach Petrino has actually been a 1st Year Head Coach 4 separate times during this period, so we have a healthy sample size for Bobby, but also for both UofL & UK as they have had several hires during this time period.

I’ll go through what stands out during each different stretch and what trends are uncovered, if any.  Some of these ‘trends’ can be coach related, some can be the product of the environment.

NOTES:

1) Column 2, Row 1 indicates where the Coach came from.

2) Recruiting Rankings are based on collective OVERALL star total, where average stars are just the average per player signed.

University of Louisville

Bobby Petrino 1.0 OC- Auburn      
UofL Record Prior to Arrival (2002 John L. Smith) 7-6, NR Year 1 (2003) 9-4, NR Year 2 (2004) 11-1, #6 Year 3 (2005) 9-3, #19
Scout Recruiting Ranking 66th, 2.50 stars (2002 class) 48th, 2.23 stars (2003 class) 54th, 2.17 stars (2004 class) 43rd, 2.67 stars (2005 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 59th, 2.39 stars (2002) 35th, 2.39 stars (2003) 109th, 2.04 stars (2004) 45th, 2.59 stars (2005)
247 Recruiting Ranking 54th, 80.00 avg (2002) 49th, 79.81 avg (2003) 60th, 77.38 avg (2004) 32nd, 81.07 avg (2005)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 1 4 0 6
Total Offense 93rd, 335.4 ypg 5th, 488.6 ypg 1st, 539.0 ypg 8th, 482.1 ypg
Scoring Offense 40th, 28.8 ppg 11th, 35.2 ppg 1st, 49.8 ppg 3rd, 43.4 ppg
Total Defense 15th, 319.9 ypg 82nd, 414.6 ypg 12th, 294.4 ypg 21st, 324.0 ypg
Scoring Defense 44th, 24.5 ppg 61st, 26.0 ppg 24th, 19.7 ppg 41st, 23.8 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? GMAC vs. Marshall/Loss GMAC vs. Miami (OH)/Loss Liberty vs. Boise St./Win Gator vs. Viriginia Tech/Loss

The first era of Bobby Petrino followed John L. Smith and the impact was immediate.  The offense went from 93rd to 5th and jumped 153 yards per game, and then really went into orbit in 2004 when the offense peaked at 539 yards per game. During Petrino’s 1st tenure, Louisville’s offense was never worse than 8th in Total Yardage, and 11th in Scoring.

The defense, however, took a hit going from 15th to 82nd but rounded back into form in 2004 to #12 in the nation and maintained that in Year 3 at #21.  Anomalies like the Louisville 2003 Defense in football are usually attributed to a loss of elite level talent and the Cards did lose DeWayne White, Curry Burns, Chris Johnson, and Anthony Floyd to the NFL off of the 2002 Defense.  But it does say a great deal that Petrino was able to steady out the defense from 2004 through 2006 (not pictured Cards were 37th in Total Defense, and #16 in Scoring Defense in 2006) after a shaky 1st season defensively.

I would characterize Petrino’s 1st stint recruiting as a slight rise until the 2006 season (again not pictured rated #24, #26, #34 by the services) when the program recruiting peaked under Coach Petrino. Under Petrino, Louisville rose from GMAC bowls to Liberty, to Gator, to Orange and finished in the Top 20 three different times including two finishes at #6.

Steve Kragthorpe HC – Tulsa
UofL Record Prior to Arrival (2006-Petrino) 12-1, #6 Year 1 (2007) 6-6, NR Year 2 (2008) 5-7, NR Year 3 (2009) 4-8, NR
Scout Recruiting Ranking 26th, 2.79 stars (2006 class) 47th, 3.13 stars (2007 class) 54th, 2.73 stars (2008 class) 64th, 2.36 stars (2009 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 34th, 2.92 stars (2006) 41st, 3.06 stars (2007) 55th, 2.59 stars (2008) 77th, 2.31 stars (2009)
247 Recruiting Ranking 24th, 83.18 avg (2006) 41st, 84.38 avg (2007) 47th, 80.61 stars (2008) 58th, average 79.96 (2009)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 4 4 5 2
Total Offense 2nd, 475.3 ypg 8th, 472.8 ypg 45th, 376.7 ypg 91st, 334.1 ypg
Scoring Offense 3rd, 37.8 ppg 36th, 31.7 ppg 66th, 24.7 ppg 111th, 18.1 ppg
Total Defense 37th, 320.5 ypg 91st, 429.7 ypg 77th, 386.5 ypg 65th, 371.1 ypg
Scoring Defense 16th, 16.3 ppg 99th, 33.4 ppg 93rd, 31.6 ppg 65th, 26.3 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? Orange vs. Wake Forest/WIN No Bowl No Bowl No Bowl

I hesitated to even list Steve Kragthorpe in here….but it’s about transparency and we’re looking for some program and coaching trends. Under Kragthorpe recruiting progressively got worse as did the offense.  The defense tanked too, but did begin to trend upward (although still unacceptable) before the end.  Kragthorpe never finished a season ranked or went to a bowl

If the goal is to discover trend by Year 3, then Kragthorpe’s tenure at Louisville tells us…..well…..let’s move on.

Charlie Strong DC- Florida
UofL Record Prior to Arrival (2009-Kragthorpe) 4-8, NR Year 1 (2010) 7-6, NR Year 2 (2011) 7-6, NR Year 3 (2012) 11-2, #13
Scout Recruiting Ranking 64th, 2.36 stars (2009 class) 45th, 2.56 stars (2010 class) 33rd, 3.05 stars (2011 class) 42nd, 2.86 (2012 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 77th, 2.31 stars (2009) 48th, 2.86 stars (2010) 29th, 3.15 stars (2011) 42nd, 3.00 (2012)
247 Recruiting Ranking 58th, average 79.96 (2009) 44th, average 82.09 (2010) 28th, average 85.29 (2011) 45th, average 83.95 (2012)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 2 0 3 1
Total Offense 91st, 334.1 ypg 71st, 369.0 ypg 103rd, 333.0 ypg 51st, 418.8 ypg
Scoring Offense 111th, 18.1 ppg 63rd, 26.4 ppg 98th, 21.9 ppg 50th, 31.2 ppg
Total Defense 65th, 371.1 ypg 14th, 311.7 ypg 23rd, 327.9 ypg 23rd, 340.3 ypg
Scoring Defense 65th, 26.3 ppg 18th, 19.4 ppg 17th, 20.1 ppg 36th, 23.8 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? No Bowl Beef O’Brady’s Bowl vs. Southern Miss/ WIN Belk Bowl vs. NC State / Loss Sugar Bowl vs. Florida / WIN

Coach Strong immediately revamped the Defense to an elite level statistically.  Defense was the constant of the Charlie Strong era at Louisville with Four Top 25 Finishes in Total Defense.

Charlie also restored Louisville’s recruiting to the level that it had enjoyed under Petrino’s 1st tenure.  And here is where we find our 1st Ah-ha!  Petrino’s 1st run with Louisville held an average recruiting ranking of 46.58 by the 3 major scouting services.  Charlie Strong averaged a recruiting ranking of 37.75 during his tenure and had a distinct advantage of being able to recruit to the Big East over Conference USA at the beginning.

Offensively, however, Strong only put together one Top 25 Offense during his tenure at Louisville with Teddy Bridgewater at QB.  The Cards went to 4 bowl games in 4 years under Charlie Strong going from Beef O’Brady to Belk to Sugar to Russell Athletic and finished in the Top 15 twice.

Petrino 2.0 UofL HC- Western Kentucky      
UofL Record Prior to Arrival (2013-Strong) 12-1, #15  Year 1 (2014) 9-4,  #24 Year 2 (2015) ?
Scout Recruiting Ranking 50th, 3.00 stars (2013 class) 43rd, 2.86 stars (2014 class) 32nd, 3.08 stars (2015 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 52nd, 3.00 stars (2013) 40th, 2.82 stars (2014) 32nd, 3.00 stars (2015)
247 Recruiting Ranking 37th, 85.81 avg (2013) 45th, 83.02 avg (2014) 33rd, 84.83 avg (2015)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 0 4 10
Total Offense 28th, 460.8 ypg 72nd, 394.7 ypg ?
Scoring Offense 25th, 35.2 ppg 53rd, 31.2 ppg ?
Total Defense 1st, 251.5 ypg 6th, 308.5 ypg ?
Scoring Defense 2nd, 12.2 ppg 24th, 21.8 ppg ?
Bowl Appearance? Win? Russell Ath vs. Miami/WIN Belk vs. Georgia / Loss ?

There isn’t enough info yet on Coach Petrino 2.0 but Petrino’s recruiting has maintained in two classes at levels similar to Strong.  So far, Petrino’s getting players and we have evidence of what Bobby can do without classes consistently in the Top 40.  Game on.

Petrino at Arkansas and Western Kentucky

It also makes a lot of sense to see what trends may have existed under Petrino at Arkansas and Western Kentucky.  Arkansas will give us good insight, while Western only had CBP for one season.

Bobby Petrino at Arkansas HC -Atlanta Falcons
Arkansas Record Prior to Arrival (2007 – Houston Nutt) 8-5, NR Year 1 (2008) 5-7, NR Year 2 (2009) 8-5, NR Year 3 (2010) 10-3, #12 Year 4 (2011) 11-2, #5
Scout Recruiting Ranking 34th, 2.78 stars (2007 class) 26th, 2.75 stars (2008 class) 21st, 2.84 stars (2009 class) 37th, 2.76 stars (2010 class) 17th, 3.06 stars (2011 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 31st, 2.93 stars (2007) 36th, 2.88 stars (2008) 16th, 3.26 stars (2009) 49th, 2.96 stars (2010) 24th, 3.07 stars (2011)
247 Recruiting Ranking 38th, 82.83 avg (2007) 27th, 81.93 avg (2008) 21st, 81.73 avg (2009) 41st, 79.50 avg (2010) 22nd, 83.41 avg (2011)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 4 6 2 1 3
Total Offense 16th, 456.3 ypg 48th, 371.2 ypg 27th, 413.7 ypg 11th, 481.3 ypg 29th, 438.1 ypg
Scoring Offense 13th, 37.6 ppg 91st, 21.9 ppg 9th, 36.0 ppg 17th, 36.5 ppg 15th, 36.8 ppg
Total Defense 55th, 383.0 ypg 72nd, 375.2 ypg 89th, 401.2 ypg 36th, 347.9 ypg 47th, 362.8 ypg
Scoring Defense 58th, 27.5 ppg 95th, 31.8 ppg 58th, 26.3 ppg 52nd, 25.1 ppg 9th, 19.2 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? Cotton vs. Missouri/Loss No Bowl Liberty v. ECU/Win Sugar vs. Ohio St/Loss Cotton vs. K-State/WIN

Petrino at Arkansas was a year by year progressive climb up the ladder to eventually finishing #5 in the nation with an 11-2 record in the SEC with a win in the Cotton Bowl over Kansas State.  The Razorbacks also lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl when the NCAA allowed the Buckeyes to use players who would they had suspended, only to see those players leave for the NFL and never actually miss any games.

Coach Petrino in Year 1 obviously had his hands full, but made huge impacts offensively and defensively peaking with the 11th best Total Offense in 2010 and the #9 best Scoring Defense in his final year with Arkansas.  In addition, Petrino put together 3 excellent recruiting classes.

Bobby Petrino WKU* HC -Arkansas
WKU Record Prior to Arrival (2012- Willie Taggart) 7-5 Year 1 (2013) 8-4 Year 2 (2014, Brohm) 8-5
Scout Recruiting Ranking 118th, 2.20 stars (2012 class) 95th, 2.06 stars (2013 class) 83rd, 2.19 stars (2014 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 76th, 2.54 stars (2012) 91st, 2.09 stars (2013) 78th, 2.28 stars (2014)
247 Recruiting Ranking 101st, 79.28 avg (2012) 96th, 75.70 avg (2013) 90th, 78.03 avg (2014)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 0 0 2
Total Offense 75th, 387.2 ypg 30th, 458.5 ypg 4th, 534.6 ypg
Scoring Offense 70th, 28.2 ppg 53rd, 30.8 ppg 6th, 44.4 ppg
Total Defense 25th, 346.6 ypg 14th, 339.2 ypg 123rd, 509.9 ypg
Scoring Defense 50th, 25.5 ypg 44th, 24.6 ppg 124th, 39.9 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? Little Caesars vs. Central Michigan/Loss No Bowl Bahamas vs. Central Michigan/WIN

Next with Western Kentucky, it’s clear with Petrino that he can affect offense in a major way. Of course we can only TRULY measure what Petrino did in his sole year here at Western, but he implemented a culture that continues with Jeff Brohm taking over as Head Coach and several assistants remaining back in Bowling Green.  One very interesting tidbit here is the defense swing.

University of Kentucky 

We’re not going to spend a whole lot of time going over UK’s history here. But just some things that stand out:

Offense – With the exception of Joker’s 1st season, UK’s offense in the 1st three years of their most recent head coaches has performed no better than 82nd in Total Offense and 61st in Scoring Offense.  The 2010 season really was an outlier statistically for the Cats.

Defense -The Cats didn’t enjoy the same boost defensively with Mark Stoops (who came to UK after being the DC at Florida State) as Louisville enjoyed when Charlie Strong came over from Florida in the same position, or how Louisville and other programs have enjoyed offensively with Petrino.  In fact, Defensively in the first 3 seasons at UK the defense has been consistently in the lower half of the nation or at best….the middle.  If we are saying that Year 3 is THE YEAR for coaches to see what they’re made of, the Stoops has a lot of room to grow in Year 3 on the defensive side of the ball.  But defense is probably what kick starts things at UK

Overall-  A lack of bowls, a one year spike in recruiting, and the coach probably doesn’t matter.  UK’s issue with contending in the SEC is likely environmental.  But Maybe Stoops gets it going this year after failing to capitalize on a down year in the SEC East.

Mark Stoops Defensive Coordinator Florida St
UK Record Prior to Arrival (2012 – Joker Phillips) 2-10, NR Year 1 (2013) 2-10, NR Year 2 (2014) 5-7, NR Year 3 (2015) ?
Scout Recruiting Ranking 31st, 2.76 stars (2012 class) 38th, 2.91 stars (2013 class) 21st, 3.07 stars (2014 class) 45th, 2.86 stars (2015 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 63rd, 2.88 stars (2012) 29th, 3.05 stars (2013) 17th, 3.32 stars (2014) 35th, 3.00 stars (2015)
247 Recruiting Ranking 49th, average 83.05 (2012) 34th, average 84.07 (2013) 22nd, average 86.90 39th, average 84.42 (2015)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 2 1 1 2
Total Offense 115th, 315.0 ypg 109th, 341.3 ypg 82nd, 384.3 ypg ?
Scoring Offense 119th, 17.9 ppg 108th, 20.5 ppg 62nd, 29.2 ppg ?
Total Defense  60th, 391.4 ypg 92nd, 427.2 ypg 77th, 406.9 ypg ?
Scoring Defense  86th, 31.0 ppg 90th, 31.2 ppg 95th, 31.3 ppg ?
Bowl Appearance? Win? No Bowl No Bowl No Bowl ?
Joker Phillips OC-UK
UK Record Prior to HC (2009- Rich Brooks) 7-6 Year 1 (2010) 6-7 Year 2 (2011) 5-7 Year 3 (2012) 2-10, NR
Scout Recruiting Ranking 27th, 2.77 stars (2009 class) 47th, 2.63 stars (2010 class) 32nd, 2.96 stars (2011 class) 31st, 2.76 stars (2012 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 41st, 2.69 stars (2009) 50th, 2.77 stars (2010) 62nd, 2.96 stars (2011) 63rd, 2.88 stars (2012)
247 Recruiting Ranking 43rd, 81.69 avg (2009) 47th, 82.89 avg (2010) 37th, 82.36 avg (2011) 49th, 83.05 avg (2012)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 1 3 1 2
Total Offense 93rd, 331.5 ypg 27th, 427.8 ypg 118th, 259.8 ypg 115th, 315.0 ypg
Scoring Offense 69th, 26.1 ppg 34th, 31.2 ppg 117th, 15.8 ppg 119th, 17.9 ppg
Total Defense  54th, 360.5 ypg 44th, 354.2 ypg 58th, 377.0 ypg 60th, 391.4 ypg
Scoring Defense  43rd, 22.7 ppg 72nd, 28.4 ppg 53rd, 24.7 ppg 86th, 31.0 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? Music City vs. Clemson/Loss BBVA vs. Pitt/Loss No Bowl No Bowl
Rich Brooks Retired
UK Record Prior to Arrival (2002 – Guy Morris) 7-5 Year 1 (2003) 4-8 Year 2 (2004) 2-9 Year 3 (2005) 3-8
Scout Recruiting Ranking 70th, 1.26 stars (2002 class) 54th, 2.44 stars (2003 class) 52nd, 2.07 stars (2004 class) 62nd, 2.15 stars (2005 class)
Rivals Recruiting Ranking 95th, 2.19 stars (2002) 63rd, 2.48 stars (2003) 52nd, 2.36 stars (2004) 68th, 2.15 stars (2005)
247 Recruiting Ranking 111th, 70.00 avg (2002) 116th, 71.03 avg (2003) 119th, 70.00 avg (2004) 119th, 70.00 avg (2005)
NFL Draft Picks Year Prior 1 2 1 1
Total Offense 84th, 347.4 ypg 94th, 327.1 ypg 115th, 275.5 ypg 108th, 296.2 ypg
Scoring Offense 19th, 32.1 ppg 61st, 26.5 ppg 114th, 15.7 ppg 95th, 19.8 ppg
Total Defense  79th, 401.2 ypg 72nd, 398.00 ypg 100th, 428.1 ypg 104th, 438.7 ypg
Scoring Defense  50th, 25.1 ppg 72nd, 28.6 ppg 83rd, 31.0 ppg 109th, 34.6 ppg
Bowl Appearance? Win? No Bowl/Sanctions No Bowl No Bowl No Bowl
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@UofLSheriff50. Louisville native, University of Louisville Business School Grad c/o 2004. Co-Founder of TheCrunchZone.com

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